WORLDVIEW: Why the “junked” Rand hasn’t cracked. And why it is coming. Soon.

South Africa's new finance minister Malusi Gigaba certainly does not want in the ambition department. Six years ago, soon after his appointment to head the State Enterprises portfolio, Gigaba's office contacted me to set up a "confidential briefing". Despite our best efforts it never happened.

This was very unusual. SA cabinet ministers rarely pursue editors, much less to offer them chummy off-the-record chats. I was surely not the only one approached in this way. Ambition, however, is a terrible defect for those earning their daily crust in service to their fellows. It is the ultimate distraction for the supposed purpose of elected officials. And encourages the dangerous acceptance, without interrogation, of myths and untruths which serve their own objectives.

We see this in Gigaba's superficial analysis of the performance of the Rand since the S&P and Fitch downgrades. What he and his advisors have completely missed is how, for now, "junk" status only applies to SA's foreign debt, a modest 10% of its total borrowings. For all practical purposes that's rather meaningless. Except in pointing to the looming problem.

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