WORLDVIEW: Beware what you wish for. Pax Americana replacement will be much tougher

Got a mail from an old pal about yesterday's piece on Purplebricks. Neville Berkowitz, SA's foremost property economist turned successful developer, tells me he started an SA equivalent two years ago. And just like the disruptive Purplebricks, this new business is a roaring success..Called Homebid, it charges 1.95% commission and does everything traditional agents do except the homebuyer is shown around by the property's owner – "as they would a guest in their home," Neville says. The HomeBid agent handles the price negotiations and sale agreement; and an attorney does the conveyancing. Which goes to show; in entrepreneurship, SA is rarely behind any curves..After yesterday's UK focus, we move across to geopolitics and to our US team member for today's Worldview. Felicity Duncan takes a critical look at in-depth research predicting the end of Pax Americana, and what differences the world can expect when the baton moves across to China, the global leader-in-waiting..___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Felicity writes: "A few weeks ago, I stumbled on an interesting interview with the author Alfred McCoy. The interview focused on the prize-winning historian's soon-to-be-released book In the Shadows of the American Century. The main thesis of the book is that the American Empire has entered an accelerating and unstoppable period of decline that will likely result in the end of dominant American power by 2030..Specifically, McCoy anticipates that:.* Economic growth in the U.S. will remain sluggish due to market distortions, a struggling education system, reduced investment in research and infrastructure, and a lack of productivity growth .* The huge deficits that have financed the U.S. military budget and its overseas military action will cause the dollar to lose its status as the world's reserve currency.* China will increasingly control the entire Asian continent, including Europe and the Middle East (properly regions of the continents) due to its "Silk Road" strategy and infrastructure investments.* American security agreements like NATO and alliances with nations around the Pacific basin will fall apart as the U.S. is forced to reduce military spending .* The result will be rising Chinese influence, greatly increased economic and political uncertainty, and an increased likelihood of major wars.Now, however you feel about America as a global superpower, McCoy's predictions are alarming..For the last 70-odd years, the world has enjoyed relative peace. The list of wars has been long, but there hasn't been a globe-spanning conflict like World War 2 since, well, World War 2. Under U.S. leadership, trade has grown, democracy has (arguably) spread, living standards have risen in many places, and science and technology have progressed. Things haven't been perfect, but they've been stable..Those days may, according to McCoy, be behind us. There are, I think, good reasons to be sceptical about his claims – the depth of innovation in the U.S., the internal problems and economic challenges facing China, the increasing influence and confidence of Europe, and the complicated relations between Russia and China. However, for us everyday investors, there is definitely reason to worry. A declining U.S. would make building financial stability much harder, with no safe haven for capital to flee to. The risk is small, but it is there..China is an authoritarian, anti-democratic state that is not afraid to use lethal force against its own citizens. The People's Republic doesn't want global war, it's true, but it does want dominance and the freedom to pursue its own agenda unchecked; human rights are not a priority. America's treatment of the rest of the world has never been especially gentle. Don't expect China's to be any more so.".A timely message for those countries, mostly in Africa and SA included, which are currently cosying up to China. It is instructive that China's first foreign military base, opened last month, is in Djibouti, a dirt-poor country of under a million people but strategically positioned on the Horn of Africa. The only constant in geopolitics is change.

WORLDVIEW: Beware what you wish for. Pax Americana replacement will be much tougher

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