There has been a lot of debate on whether lockdown was the right route for SA given the extreme inequality. Among others, the government considered the most vulnerable given South Africa’s high prevalence of HIV and TB among the poorest of the poor. Although lockdown is hard for everyone, in a township it is fundamentally more challenging and potentially dangerous. In this reader mailbox, John Taylor argues a new approach to tackling disasters of this magnitude without killing the economy and many more people post Covid-19. – Editor
By John Taylor
The question that needs answering now that we have squandered all the country’s economic reserves on Covid-19 is this:
How will we survive ‘Covid-20’?
Two things need to happen:
- People of reason and credibility need to launch a constitutional challenge to the human rights abuses that the government has imposed, including denying many the right to earn a living. The objective is to force the lifting of lockdown restrictions as soon as possible and allowing the resumption of the economy as fully and quickly as possible.
- A referendum should be held to decide what course of action should be taken when ‘Covid-20’ (or similar disaster) arises and prevent another situation that will impact upon the poorest the most:
a) lockdown for a maximum of three weeks, or
b) no lockdown with social distancing enforcement (and international travel ban) or such similar alternative decision tree.
It is time for a concerted effort to change the course of the government’s response to corona. They, like virtually all the world leaders, were swept away by media hype and medical opinions based upon conjecture and speculation, even among so-called experts.
Although our government says it will slowly ease some restrictions, the vandalism, riots and unrest with resulting police/army response will lead to many deaths, even after the lockdown is lifted. This will be exacerbated when the second round of infections begins. It is unavoidable! SA will not survive a second lockdown as we have squandered our financial resources too early. The government will have to accept a massive rise in deaths due to reinfection and poverty etc. even if they lift the lockdown.
It was a relief to hear some admissions from Prof Salim Abdool Karim a few nights ago:
- SA will not be able to stop exponential infection;
- SA has bought some time for the second wave due in September, and
- Our top scientists totally over projected the impact of the “pandemic” and forced us into a massive financial crisis and lockdown now.
Sadly Prof Karim is perpetuating the myth that we are all at risk. This is a fallacy as, in addition to herd immunity, many do not get infected at all and many get only minor symptoms. This has been confirmed with the most recent studies overseas. Prof Karim has confessed that he does not understanding why HIV/AIDS (his specialist field) does not appear to be a factor in comorbidities. What he should be concerned about is TB with its more than 0.75% infection rate.
If this was a “real” war like WW1 or 2, then the world leaders would have said we have to send troops to fight and there will, of necessity, be many deaths BUT the economy must go full tilt to be able to pay for it. There is a war and collateral damage is inevitable.
Now these lockstep leaders have reversed it and we will all suffer.
There is only one reliable statistic re the so-called pandemic – the number of daily deaths worldwide which peaked at just over 7,000/day and is now hovering around 5,000/day. Some 70% – 80% of these are in the plus 65 age group. A few adjustments are expected as the comorbidities are reflected in the “real” Covid-19 deaths.
Comorbidities are proving to be the major factor leading to death. Most of these are self-inflicted underlying conditions as a result of poor life-style choices as evidenced by the plus 65 age group leading, by far, the demand for facilities and expenditure in both private and public medical facilities, even before Covid-19.
Yes, Covid-19 is exacerbating and using these underlying issues to bring on deaths in the plus 65 age group at a faster rate – but it is not indiscriminately incapacitating nor killing everyone it infects, certainly not the young and healthy.
The future of the world is being sacrificed in the vain attempt (at huge expense) to keep alive those who would die of “natural” causes over the next five to 10 years which has now been compressed into a six to 12 month timescale. This all at the expense of the indigent and poverty stricken who are least able to survive the lockdown.
Effectively the world leaders took the decision to save one life today and allow the deaths of many tomorrow.
Below is my earlier take on the misguided and hugely more damaging long-term damage to the world as a result of the economic meltdown, largely informed by mass hysteria fuelled by social media frenzy.
Lemming behaviour as the world leaders force everyone to jump over the edge of the cliff
The reason for the explosion and deaths of the astronauts in Apollo 1 was put down to “a failure of imagination”. In a similar vein, too much imagination can cause as much damage.
This is what is fuelling the ongoing pandemonium of corona – and is leading to a world economic meltdown and deaths of the indigent and jobless in the short/medium term. Lemmings for sure.
Our state president is following the lead of other world leaders so that history can’t point a figure at him – even if these actions are likely to result in far more deaths in the short/medium term. Lemmings for sure.
Encouraged by stock-market traders (who make money both ways), the world stock markets collapsed when corona was announced. Now everyone is jumping back in. Lemmings for sure.
We’re caught up in a herd instinct flight response driven by the media (social and formal). Hysteria is not the climate for making sensible decisions. Lemmings for sure.
Approx. 56 million people die worldwide every year. Of these 10.39m are communicable, maternal, neonatal and nutritional; 41.07m are non-communicable including cardiovascular, cancers, diabetes and respiratory (and where the bulk of the current deaths attributed to corona are happening); 4.48m are injuries including road accidents, homicides, drownings, fire-related, natural disasters and suicides.
This equates to approx. 138,000/day worldwide overall.
The total deaths by age worldwide comprises 27.21m over 70yrs, 15m age 50 – 69yrs, 7.61m age 15 – 49yrs, 0.731m from 5 – 14yrs and 5.39m under 5 yrs.
Just taking the over 70s, this equates to approx. 75,000/day worldwide.
The current worldwide death toll (those that are attributed to Covid-19) is hovering at between 6,000 and 7,000/day and the growth factor is fluctuating around 1 – meaning no disastrous escalation in cases.
The downside of the current response is that the economic meltdown will likely kill far more that Covid-19 did (or ever can). And the majority of these deaths will be starvation and deaths related to 3rd world conditions.
That is why the current responses and strategies are fatally flawed. The only steps that makes sense are the enforcement of social distancing and an international travel ban, thereby reducing the spread by contact. However, everyone should be allowed to go back to work as far as possible and get the economy going again as fast as possible.
Unless the world leaders change their response and make the hard decision to keep the world economy alive at the expense of those that must die, chaos will ensue.
The roll-out of a safe and tested vaccine is likely to only be in a year’s time.
Please help unleash the people and let the economy recover as quickly as possible.
