Mailbox - Rural revolt and economic collapse threaten Steenhuisen’s leadership

Key topics:Rural DA base revolts over inaction on Foot and Mouth crisis.Farmers publicly shift support to Freedom Front Plus and ActionSA.Economic collapse exposes Steenhuisen's leadership incompetence..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By BizNews community member Andrew Morphew.Dear Alec,I read R.W. Johnson’s piece, "The DA in Crisis," with great interest. As usual, R.W. provides a sharp high-level analysis of the tensions within the GNU and the questions surrounding John Steenhuisen’s leadership. However, I believe R.W. has missed the actual "Black Swan" event that is about to topple the DA leader.R.W. focuses heavily on the "qualifications" debate—whether Steenhuisen has the academic credentials or "real world" experience to lead. While valid, this is an abstract debate. The real crisis—the one that will actually cost him the leadership at the Federal Congress—is happening in the mud and blood of the rural economy.Here is the reality the analysis missed:1. The "Steenhuisen Stabilisation" Myth vs. Rural Revolt R.W. assumes Steenhuisen's survival depends on political manoeuvring within the Federal Executive. He is wrong. It depends on the delegates, and the rural block is in open revolt. The party’s foot soldiers are currently facing angry voters with absolutely no information, no plan, and no action coming from the Minister. They are furious at being left in the firing line, forced to answer for his inaction while their communities face financial ruin. The disconnect is so severe that I have been informed by an influential party member they were verbally abused by Steenhuisen himself simply for raising frustrations about the Foot and Mouth Disease crisis on a public forum. They will not be voting for him.2. The Electoral Exodus (Social Media is Burning) R.W. treats the DA's voter base as static, but if you look at the farmers' social media groups, the base is fracturing in real-time. Farmers are not just complaining; they are publicly declaring their departure. Across social platforms, the sentiment has shifted from "pressure the Minister" to "replace the party." We are seeing life-long DA voters explicitly stating they will cast their next ballot for the Freedom Front Plus or ActionSA. When your rural base is publicly pledging allegiance to your direct rivals because you failed to protect their livelihoods, the leadership crisis is no longer theoretical—it is existential.3. The Competence Reality Check R.W. argued that Steenhuisen is a "career politician." The Minister tried to counter this by demanding to be judged on his performance. Tragically, the FMD crisis has proven R.W. right. It isn't about a degree; it's about executive capability. The transition from "Opposition Leader" (talking) to "Minister" (doing) has been a failure. Steenhuisen has offered a "10-year roadmap" to farmers who are losing their herds today. That is not governance; that is bureaucratic paralysis. 4. The Economic Slaughter (The Numbers R.W. Didn't Mention) While the political analysts debate coalition friction, the agricultural sector is bleeding out:Inflation: Meat prices are up 12.2% year-on-year solely due to disease mismanagement.Production Collapse: KZN dairy farms are reporting 50% production drops.Wealth Destruction: Intelact models show a R557m loss across just 100 farms in KZN buy March this year. This is the destruction of generational wealth and family-owned enterprises—the DA's core rural constituency.5. Trust Has Left the Building (and it will cost Billions) Governance has collapsed into litigation. The Milk Producers' Organisation (MPO) and the Rooivleis Aksie Groep (RAG) are suing their own Minister to force him to do his job. Even more dangerously, a class-action lawsuit is being prepared. Legal teams are collating evidence of negligence regarding the vaccine failure, potentially exposing the government to billions of Rands in liability. When your core constituency is suing you—and the taxpayer faces a multi-billion Rand bill for your failure—you are already dead in the water..Read more:.Steenhuisen: Strong leadership and smart voter choices can turn South Africa around.In the end, it won't be a rival faction or a critical column that finishes John Steenhuisen. By ignoring the very people who put him in power, the Minister has braided the rope for his own political hanging.

Mailbox - Rural revolt and economic collapse threaten Steenhuisen’s leadership

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