Miningweb Weekly: Gold at blow-off levels, Trump’s muscle politics and why SA is missing the moment

Gold is surging past historic extremes, silver is back in the conversation, and Donald Trump is reshaping global power plays. Peter Major unpacks what the boom really means for investors, why South Africa risks squandering a once-in-a-generation mining windfall, and where real value may still be hiding..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.If there is one word that captures the mood of this week’s Miningweb Weekly, it is imbalance.Gold has surged beyond levels few analysts were prepared to defend in public. Donald Trump is back at the centre of global geopolitics, unsettling allies and emboldening markets at the same time. And South Africa, once a mining powerhouse that shaped global commodity cycles, appears strangely absent from the room where decisions are being made.For veteran mining analyst Peter Major, none of this is abstract theory. These are forces already reshaping balance sheets, tax revenues and investment flows in real time.Gold, which Major has warned about repeatedly, has pushed into what even long-term bulls would once have called blow-off territory. Prices above $4,800 an ounce are not just historically high, they are structurally disruptive.“This is big money driving this,” Major says. “Big power. This is not retail speculation.”The scale of the move is difficult to overstate. Gold is now the most valuable asset on the planet by market value, ahead of silver and even Nvidia. Central banks are buying aggressively, and while China’s motivations remain opaque, the consequences are clear. When sovereign buyers enter a tight market, price discovery changes.Yet Major is careful not to sell certainty where none exists. The question is not whether gold can go higher. It is how long it can stay there.“There’s got 5,000 written on it,” he says, referring to gold’s next psychological level. “I just don’t know how long it’ll stay there.”Silver, too, is drawing attention in places it rarely does. At golf clubs and dinner tables, the metal is suddenly part of casual conversation. Historically, silver has been easier to own, easier to trade, and easier for retail investors to understand than obscure strategic minerals like rare earths.If gold feels crowded, silver feels late. And late markets can move fast.But the most striking part of the discussion is not about prices. It is about positioning.South Africa’s mining sector now accounts for roughly 38 percent of the JSE All Share Index. Gold and platinum alone make up nearly a third of the index, despite the fact that most of the country’s gold mines have shut down over the past two decades.This means mining is pulling the broader economy along in a way government policy simply is not.“It’s generating profits like this government has never seen,” Major says. “And it’s going to generate taxes like this government is never going to see again.”The irony is painful. With four-fifths of South Africa’s gold mines closed, earnings and tax revenues are still surging thanks to price alone. In another era, this would have sparked a national conversation about exploration, development and long-term strategy.Instead, South Africa’s leadership chose not to attend Davos, at precisely the moment when mining, geopolitics and capital are colliding.Major is blunt about that decision.“Put on your best suit, put on your best smile, and get over there,” he says. “You’re doing it for the people of South Africa, not for your party.”Trump’s return has complicated global diplomacy, but it has also clarified power. Investors, executives and governments are recalibrating quickly, because failing to do so carries consequences. Trade agreements stall. Capital moves elsewhere. Influence evaporates.In that context, absence is not protest. It is surrender.On the investment side, Major stresses that this is not a market for complacency. Mining stocks and metals are cyclical, even when prices feel unstoppable. Equities exaggerate both upside and downside. When metal prices fall, mining shares fall harder. When they rise, they overshoot.That is why Major is increasingly focused on switching rather than chasing.Switching does not mean buying what has not moved. It means selling what has become expensive and redeploying into assets with deeper value still unrecognised by the market.For Major, copper fits that description.At current prices near $13,000 a tonne, copper projects that were marginal a year ago suddenly look transformational. Companies like Orion Minerals, which have lagged gold’s rise, now offer leverage to a different part of the commodity cycle.“If you gave me a Krugerrand or a silver brick and told me I could switch it into Orion at these levels, I’d do it in 60 seconds,” Major says.The logic is simple. Metals that have already rerated are vulnerable to pullbacks. Metals that have not yet fully reflected today’s prices offer asymmetric upside.This thinking also explains Major’s admiration for entrepreneurs like Robert Friedland, whose Ivanhoe projects are now coming into their own after decades of capital, patience and conviction. At today’s prices, projects that once looked risky can repay themselves far faster than originally modelled.Time, as Major repeatedly points out, is everything.If it takes ten years to bring a mine into production, you need a much higher price to justify the risk. If it takes two years, the same project can thrive even if prices flatten.That distinction matters enormously in a world where regulation, politics and capital discipline are reshaping mining globally.In the end, Miningweb Weekly delivers a familiar but uncomfortable message. Markets are moving fast. Capital is adapting. Entrepreneurs are taking risks. And South Africa, blessed with geology, weather and infrastructure, is being pulled forward despite itself.“If ever there was a country that would do better with less government,” Major says, “it’s this one.”For investors and policymakers alike, the warning is the same. Opportunities do not wait. And cycles do not announce their turning points in advance.

Miningweb Weekly: Gold at blow-off levels, Trump’s muscle politics and why SA is missing the moment

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