Miningweb Weekly: Peter Major unpacks the metals shock – and where smart money goes next

A wild week in global metals markets has rattled traders and investors alike. Veteran mining analyst Peter Major explains what really triggered the gold, silver and copper swings, why panic selling creates opportunity, and which South African mining stocks still offer real value..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.Some weeks in the market drift by quietly. Others arrive like a storm and leave investors wondering what just happened. The past week in global metals was firmly in the second category.Gold, silver and copper surged, then snapped back violently. Prices fell hundreds of dollars in a single session. Traders scrambled. Narratives multiplied. And once again, the market went looking for a simple villain.According to veteran mining analyst Peter Major, that instinct is usually wrong.Major has been watching mining markets for more than 50 years. He bought his first mining shares in the mid-1970s, lost money, learned the hard way, and has been analysing South African mining shares since arriving in the country in early 1982. Very little surprises him anymore. What happened last week did not.“I have seen this before,” Major said. “And it looks very similar to what happened in 1980.”That was the year the Hunt brothers famously tried to corner the silver market. Prices exploded. Speculators piled in late. Margin requirements were increased. And the market collapsed just as quickly as it rose.The mechanics this time were different, but the behaviour was almost identical.The trigger, according to Major, was not a policy appointment in Washington or a sudden change in fundamentals. It was margin. Specifically, a sharp increase in margin requirements on Chinese futures exchanges.In simple terms, many traders were controlling very large positions with relatively small amounts of cash. When margin requirements were raised by as much as 80 percent, those traders were forced to either inject fresh capital or sell. Many could not, or chose not to. So they sold.The result was forced liquidation on a massive scale.“When you are selling a position ten times larger than your original cash, prices move very fast,” Major explained. “That is how you get panic.”This was not long-term investors exiting. It was leverage unwinding.Major is blunt about the difference. Investors buy with cash and time. Traders buy with borrowed money and hope. When hope disappears, panic takes over.That is why he draws a sharp line between speculation and investment. It is also why he remains cautious even after the bounce that followed the sell-off.Gold and silver may have recovered some ground, but that does not mean risk has vanished. In real terms, Major believes both metals are still trading at historically elevated levels. The same is true for copper, which has surged from below $5,000 a ton to around $13,000 over the past six years.“In real terms, copper is probably a standard deviation above its long-term average,” he said. “That makes me wary.”Wary does not mean bearish. It means selective.Major has consistently warned against chasing commodities at extremes. Instead, he prefers to look for value within the mining sector itself, particularly among companies where operational execution matters more than headline prices.One of those is Orion Minerals. Major famously highlighted Orion at 21 cents. The share now trades around 47 cents, helped by a stronger metals complex and growing interest from global players.Recent involvement from BHP has added another layer of credibility, especially as exploration extends beyond known ore bodies in the Northern Cape. That region remains one of South Africa’s most prospective base metals districts.Still, Major is measured. He is not selling, but he is also not rushing to add at current levels. Orion still needs to move from studies to production. Markets eventually demand delivery.Another name that stands out for him is Jubilee Metals. The company has transformed itself into a focused copper business in Zambia, shedding its earlier PGM exposure. It now operates in a jurisdiction that actively welcomes mining capital and has a management team with deep operational experience.“This ticks a lot of boxes,” Major said. “Good team, good assets, good country.”Zambia’s resurgence as a mining destination matters here. After decades of policy missteps, the country has rebuilt investor confidence. Capital follows certainty, and copper has followed Zambia.Closer to home, AfriMat remains on Major’s radar. The company’s challenges have been logistical rather than geological or managerial. Rail constraints, port congestion, and regulatory delays have weighed on performance. Major sees these as temporary.“You do not need everything to go right for AfriMat to work,” he noted. “Two out of four improvements and the share price responds.”Copper 360 is another name he is revisiting. Major admits he missed the early move. He is now doing the work again as management changes and balance sheet repairs take shape. High copper prices help, but discipline still matters.Throughout the discussion, one theme kept returning. Markets are not rational in the short term. They are emotional, leveraged, and often driven by fear of missing out or fear of loss.That is where experience counts.“Veterans do not panic like this,” Major said. “It is the latecomers and the leveraged players.”For investors watching metals from the sidelines, the lesson is simple. Volatility creates opportunity, but only if you know what you own and why you own it. Chasing price is rarely a strategy. Understanding value still is.In a week defined by noise and panic, that may be the most valuable commodity of all.

Miningweb Weekly: Peter Major unpacks the metals shock – and where smart money goes next

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