Miningweb Weekly: Peter Major - Mining boom, policy bust and SA’s missed moment

As the world’s mining heavyweights packed Cape Town for the biggest Indaba yet, veteran mining analyst Peter Major delivered a blunt verdict: metal prices are booming, Africa is surging, but South Africa is still shackled by policy paralysis. In this Director’s Cut with Alec Hogg, Major unpacks the upbeat global mood, why Congo is racing ahead, and the two reforms that could unlock billions for SA overnight..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.At first glance, the mood at Cape Town’s Mining Indaba was euphoric. Packed halls. Standing room only. Foreign delegates flooding in from every continent. Metal prices strong. Load shedding absent. A Government of National Unity that has toned down the rhetoric. If ever there was a moment for South Africa to reclaim its mining swagger, this was it.And yet, beneath the optimism, Peter Major’s message to Alec Hogg was sobering. The world is surging. South Africa is treading water.Over 13 days and five separate mining gatherings, Major described an industry that feels like it has momentum. “Everything that anybody could ever want in mining has been here,” he said. The scale alone was unprecedented. More exhibitors. More delegates. More simultaneous sessions than ever before. By his count, the biggest of the 32 Indabas he has attended.The global backdrop is undeniably strong. Copper, gold, iron ore and a basket of critical minerals are all enjoying robust pricing. Across Africa, capital is flowing north. The Democratic Republic of Congo, once barely registering on global copper charts, now produces over three million tonnes annually. Twenty five years ago it was effectively a non player. Today it is challenging the global heavyweights.The contrast with South Africa is uncomfortable.Despite its vast mineral endowment, South Africa has hovered around roughly $50 billion in annual mining output for years. No real growth. No breakout moment. Meanwhile the DRC’s copper alone is generating revenue that rivals South Africa’s entire diversified mining basket. Add gold and cobalt and the DRC overtakes us.It raises the obvious question. How does a country with relative peace, sophisticated infrastructure and deep mining expertise lose ground to jurisdictions plagued by conflict and instability?Major points to policy and regulation. Specifically, the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Act and its repeated revisions. Each iteration, he argues, has added complexity and punitive elements. Licensing delays remain chronic. Prospecting rights can take years. Mining licences even longer.There was some cautious relief that government may have paused its latest legislative push after pushback from the Minerals Council. But relief is not reform.One of the starkest moments in the conversation came when Major weighed up the single change that could transform investment flows. Clean up licensing, or scrap mandatory BEE ownership requirements? His instinct was that removing compulsory BEE equity structures would unlock the most capital, though licensing reform runs a close second.The point is not ideological. It is practical. Investors want clarity, speed and certainty. When projects stall for years or require complex ownership structures that dilute returns and increase risk, capital simply goes elsewhere.Exploration tells the same story. While Canada and Australia spend billions annually on exploration, South Africa’s spend is negligible by comparison. A half million dollar announcement here or there barely moves the dial. Without exploration, there is no pipeline of future mines. Without future mines, there are no future jobs.Transnet was one of the few relative bright spots. Major acknowledged a greater willingness to engage and some incremental improvements in freight volumes. But balance sheets remain stretched and structural reform remains slow. Industry wants more control and clearer frameworks before committing serious capital to rail and port upgrades.Energy policy also reflected a subtle shift. ESG and “just transition” rhetoric was notably muted compared to previous years. Coal is no longer taboo. Several major banks have quietly reopened coal financing desks. Africa, like China, appears to be leaning toward pragmatism: grow first, transition sensibly, do not sabotage development in pursuit of idealism.The global mining industry, in other words, is not retreating. It is expanding.Which makes South Africa’s cautious, incremental approach all the more frustrating for investors.There was praise for the improved domestic environment. No load shedding for a year. Fewer reckless political statements under the GNU. Higher metal prices. A sense that some of the chaos has eased.But the ceiling remains.Major described it as a permanent policy and regulatory ceiling that caps growth. Companies cannot break what is written in law. They will not risk legal exposure in uncertain jurisdictions. So they allocate capital elsewhere.And yet, his outlook for the sector overall is bullish. More mines will open than close across Africa this year. Employment in mining is likely to rise continent wide. Even South Africa may see marginal increases.The tragedy is that this could be so much bigger.At an event where Zambia and the DRC aggressively showcased their opportunities, South Africa’s presence felt modest. There were stalls. There were officials. But not the coordinated, all in push one might expect from a country hosting one of the world’s most important mining gatherings.In a world desperate for copper, lithium, rare earths and energy metals, South Africa should be at the front of the queue. Instead, it risks being just another player among 55 African jurisdictions.The Mining Indaba delivered enthusiasm, networking and global validation of mining’s renewed importance. What it did not deliver was clear evidence that South Africa has decisively grasped the opportunity.The metal prices are high. The appetite is there. The capital is mobile.The question is whether policy will catch up before the next cycle turns.

Miningweb Weekly: Peter Major - Mining boom, policy bust and SA’s missed moment

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