John Matisson – Shivambu’s defection: Strategic rift or survival tactic?

After the EFF's dramatic decline in the 2024 elections, Floyd Shivambu's defection to Jacob Zuma's MKP has sparked intense speculation. Many believe it's a strategic move, coordinated with Julius Malema, to eventually unite the two parties. However, deeper tensions between Shivambu and Malema, along with the MKP's growing wealth and need for skilled leadership, suggest that this alliance might be more about survival and ambition than a simple ruse..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By John Matisonn.Conspiracy theorists have been working overtime since EFF number two Floyd Shivambu defected to ex-President Jacob Zuma's Mkhonto weSizwe Party, after MKP overtook the EFF to become the third largest party in South Africa and the official opposition in Parliament. .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Much of this speculation assumed his break with the EFF is fake, that that EFF leader and strongman Julius Malema is in on it, and that its an elaborate ruse so the two parties can come together..That theory reckons without the human element. The truth is much more prosaic..Four background facts are critical to understanding developments in the two chief opposition parties..The decade long bromance between Shivambu and Malema came under unprecedentedly severe strain in the months leading up to election day and in the intra-party negotiations that followed. Shivambu was hoping for a sub-cabinet post, as Deputy Finance Minister. Though Shivambu may have been alone in thinking it was a viable option, inside the EFF it was Malema who blocked it. To Shivambu's dauntless ambition, the not unambitious Malema was his chief obstacle – Malema has been increasingly short-tempered with his officials, ready to clamp down on any perceived threat to his leadership. The EFF's election losses were most acute in KwaZulu-Natal, the province Shivambu was sent to fix, falling from 9.7% to 2.56%, for which Shivambu was the obvious, though unfair, scapegoat.Money. All of a sudden, the MKP is the wealthy party, with the resources to grow, while the EFF, already tagged the loser, will struggle to match it. Speculation about where the MKP's funds are coming from ranges from Russia, whose President Vladimir Putin has a strong relationship with Zuma as business deals with Russian oligarchs increase, to an offtake from construction mafias in KwaZulu-Natal. The party has not disclosed its funding sources.The MKP has a gap for Shivambu's specific talents. In the EFF, Shivambu was the chief ideologue, responsible for most party manifesto writing, as well as its most effective organizer. The MKP rose so fast it has neither. Zuma cannot do either job – his talents do not extend to policy-writing, and his age, health and KwaZulu-Natal regional base limit his continued contribution to the hard slog of organizing..Read more: Former VBS chair details looting spree: DA calls for action against EFF's Malema, Shivambu.The May 29 general election was a watershed for the EFF. For the first time since its birth in 2013, the EFF's sharp upward trajectory was decisively reversed, taking it down from 10.79% in 2019 to take only 9.52% in 2024, below the psychologically important 10%..Critically, the backdrop is the sharp rise of a new rival with a similar agenda finding supporters to get sharply ahead at 14.56% in only six months..The benefits to MKP of acquiring Shivambu are obvious. The MKP is strong in KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga, while Shivambu built strong EFF support in Limpopo, Northwest and Gauteng. Uniting the two would turn two regional parties into a national one. But for that to happen, much more pain is likely first..The atmospherics of the move have been colourful..Shivambu and Zuma have an extremely fraught history. Shivambu made the unprecedented move to publicly abuse Zuma when Zuma was president and Shivambu a member of the ANC's Youth League. The issue was Pretoria's support for intervention in Libya. Zuma reacted angrily..Shivambu followed that up by regularly abusing the president in the National Assembly, when he and Malema routinely disrupted Zuma's addresses with endless points of order, against the background of shouted demands that Zuma "pay back the money" he cost taxpayers. .So what is the glue holding this opportunistic alliance together? .For Zuma, the benefits listed above are obvious. Shivambu can put together a more coherent manifesto with ideological trappings to match. And with the right resources he can organise extensively outside MKP's ethnic Zulu base to build a national party..For Shivambu, it's the chance to get out from under Malema's increasingly chaffing personality. Of course being under Zuma could raise similar problems, but don't underestimate the key differences: neither is a threat to the other's strengths. Shivambu couldn't dislodge Zuma's KZN base, but he will have the space to build his own..Read more: Best of BizNews #5: Floyd Shivambu: Here's why Zuma fired Nene, deployed backbencher Van Rooyen.Second, Zuma is 82. He may not be on his deathbed, as he claimed when seeking parole, but neither will he go on forever. He needs an experienced politician and parliamentarian in his leadership. Shivambu may clash with the ex-president's daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, apparently the most influential party member in the National Assembly, but both have an incentive to keep in different lanes..What will this mean for the EFF?.The overall vulnerability of the red berets is underscored by Malema's erratic performances since Shivambu's move became known. At their unusual joint media conference to announce the split, Malema admitted it caused him obvious pain, while an uncomfortable Shivambu asked that they not publicly slander each other. Both have many secrets to keep about each other..But within days, Malema was on the warpath. He's admitted he expects more defections to follow, in part from Shivambu's loyalists in the party organisation. He announced he was taking over all the functions of Shivambu's office as deputy president, and dissolving its important Governance Task Unit (GTU), which has been in charge of the party's deployment of members to Parliament and other paying jobs. .Looking obviously worried, he said the EFF was "under attack", clearly a reference to the departure of Shivambu, and demanded that others planning to leave must "leave now," and not wait until the party's December conference, when leadership positions are elected..It made Malema look weak. He clearly believes some are staying in the party as a fifth column. If he tries publicly to pressurise them to leave, he is not in control of his party. Are others feeling the same way as Shivambu – annoyed by Malema's bossiness, and ready to follow the money out the door?.It sure looks that way..Read also:.Behind Jozi chaos: Alex mafia, ANC, EFF – and now ActionSAVoters reject ANC and EFF: Demand real change, not radical transformation – John EndresFormer VBS chair details looting spree: DA calls for action against EFF's Malema, Shivambu

John Matisson – Shivambu’s defection: Strategic rift or survival tactic?

Related Stories

Old School SA’s Stellenbosch brothers riding Bafana Bafana fever sweeping the country

The hollowing out of Eskom: De Ruyter's prophecy becomes reality

Beyond the metros: Where SA's real political battle in November is brewing

Hedge Fund thinking meets the beautiful game — Inside America's World Cup ambition