How a new party could remake South Africa – Sean McLaughlin

Key topics.Gauteng needs a centrist party to challenge ANC dominance.A 2029 ANC breakaway could reshape SA's political landscape.A DA-led centre-right coalition may emerge with key alliances..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up for the BizNews channel here..By Seán McLaughlin*.Background.My previous column in this Gauteng series studied how a new Gauteng-focused party could form part of a centrist majority in the provincial government and in the province's municipalities..That same entity could reshape politics at a national level..Surveys confirm that SA's populace is broadly centre-right leaning. Parties of that nature hold power in two of the three 'big' provinces (KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape). Absent is this factor in the capital province of Gauteng, where a detrimental African National Congress (ANC) clings to power..The flamboyant Gauteng Premier Mr Lesufi may be the ANC's saboteur. He and his wider camp have been reluctant to concede power, to work with the centrists and begin a turnaround..And if he ascends to ANC leader, he may be the architect of the ANC's great successor as his political persuasion forces a mass exodus..Fertile ground.Turnout in the National and Provincial Elections of 2024 was 58.64% of the registered electorate. That equates to around 42% of the eligible adult population..The perception to the average voter is that the ANC is incompetent, the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) espouse chaos. The small ones will not get the numbers, and the Democratic Alliance (DA) is aloof. The latter is incorrect, but the DA has been smeared in the media..The ground is fertile for a new political party that does the right things. My previous columndetailed these prerequisites. Among these are targeting the lower-middle class, (townships and township-suburb hinterlands), a depth of political leaders, and a manifesto that is pro-business with a safety net. .Read more: Sean McLaughlin: Can a new political party break the Gauteng deadlock?.Failing to meet all of these as well as then showing an ability to govern, and it will likely join the many others that held great potential but ebbed away..The new one could combine the positive aspects of those who debuted 2024: ASA's deep talent pool; BOSA's communication skill and Rise Mzansi's community forums, led by tough and compassionate leaders..And their mistakes are visible for the entrant to avoid – personality-reliance, chasing the suburban vote, (and collapsing city councils). .The Battle for South Africa's soul: The numbers.DA Federal Chairperson Helen Zille has written on the battle for SA's political soul really being a tug of war within the ANC. The DA could never work with the far left, given their incompatible worldview. Yet it could work with a downsized, more manageable ANC..2019 National Assembly: The Battle for South Africa.2024 National Assembly: The Battle for South Africa ("made easier").Mr Zuma's MK breakaway party formed in late 2023 effectively forced the ANC to choose whether it would turn to the left or to the right to govern. It chose the latter. .A further breakaway, this time to the centre, could look like the below..2029 National Assembly (Hypothetical): The Battle for South Africa complete.Such a hypothetical 2029 scenario assumes: .The ANC vote falls from 40% in 2024 to 22% in 2029 (from 159 seats to 98). That is around the same percentage point fall from 2019 to 2024 (17%).This is caused largely the ANC breakaway 'Renewal'.Renewal achieves 18.25% (73 seats). Not drastic, that is only 4% more than MK achieved in 2024.The smaller 2024 parties of Rise Mzansi, BOSA and ASA collapse and / or back Renewal.This does not factor that the South African Communist Party (SACP) could stand independently of the ANC in 2029, potentially shaving 3-5% off the ANC's total from the left 'flank'..It resembles non-predictive polling from the Social Research Foundation (SRF) conducted in September 2024:.A best-case showing for SA's centre and right-leaning parties, and a poor showing for the far left.The DA grows to 24% (96 seats) – the largest party in the national assembly.The IFP grows to 5% (20 seats).The PA grows to 4% (16 seats)The EFF declines to 6% (24 seats)MK declines to 12% (48 seats).With this, the DA could lead a national centre-right coalition of four parties including Renewal, PA and IFP. That would total 51.25% (205 seats) andcould be bolstered by any smaller party. .Representative of SA's demography and geography, it would pursue centrist policies..Mr Lesufi .To simplify, let us assume Mr Lesufi becomes ANC leader in 2027. Capital markets crush SA during most of 2028, believing he will turn to the EFF and MK after the 2029 election. But there may only be 18 months until the election and so the damage would be limited..Within that time, progress the GNU makes could be threatened..The relative 'centrists' within the ANC, then, defect and begin/join Renewal, 'jumping ship' from the futile direction in which Mr Lesufi is leading the party. .Given the earthquake with which Mr Zuma split the ANC as one personality, a few high-profile ANC defections could be momentous. As I calculate, this party may only need around 18% for the centre to get over the line. .Additionally, a year or two from an election is an optimal lead-in time to keep momentum..The rise in political upstarts in SA's early 2020s were mostly centrist tapping into such a large market. And working with the centre has also only increased the ANC's popularity..The new one?.Alternatively, the forces driving all of this may weaken if the ANC morphs into a Social Democratic-type party. That could be a more coherent bedfellow to govern with the DA, and drive reform..Or, that may all happen at a national level but the Gauteng-specific ANC disintegrates. It would become a rural party that may hang on in second-tier cities. Meanwhile, its replacement usurps it and kicks it out of Gauteng. .Losing the urban vote would be most damaging for the ANC long-term, given high inward urban migration..Historians may trace that moment as when SA's political spectrum irrevocably split like the German parliament, with no party holding more than 25%..There is no doubt that a centrist ANC breakaway or 'de-camp' with weight could do very well in a future election. At the time of writing, some are saying that that it could emerge ahead of the 2026 Local Government Elections (LGEs). .Gauteng is rich in talent, culture, debate and contestation. That is where a new leader could be in the making. .Cometh the hour, cometh the new one!.Read also:.Gauteng: Change coming for the cities in 2026 – Seán McLaughlinSeán McLaughlin: Learning from Gauteng's political deadlock as DA closes in on powerPaddi Clay: Living through Limbo in mad, bad Gauteng.*Seán McLaughlin is a Political Scientist and Data Analyst.He can be reached on X and LinkedIn.Previously, he has worked for data and news providers Wood Mackenzie and Acuris.He holds a degree in Arabic and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, as well as a degree in Data Science for Business, from the University of Stirling.

How a new party could remake South Africa – Sean McLaughlin

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