RW Johnson: French surprise – Left surges, Macron’s centrists struggle

After Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) topped the European elections, President Macron called a snap parliamentary election to break the RN's momentum. The first round saw RN leading with 34%, the Left with 28%, and Macron's Centrists at 20%. Despite efforts for a Republican Front against RN, the Left emerged as the largest bloc with 180-190 seats. The Centrists have 150-160 seats, RN has 135-145 seats, and the Republicans hold 60 seats. Macron aims to form a centrist government, facing challenges from both the Left and RN..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Join us for BizNews' first investment-focused conference on Thursday, 12 September, in Hermanus, featuring top experts like Frans Cronje, Piet Viljoen, and more. Get insights on electricity and exploiting SA's gas bounty from new and familiar faces. Register here..By RW Johnson .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.When France's President Emmanuel Macron called a snap parliamentary election straight after Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement National (RN) had topped the poll at the European elections, his motivation was fairly clear. His presidential term finishes in 2027 and he is haunted by the dread possibility that Le Pen might succeed him. So he wanted to break the RN's momentum. Either the electorate might panic at the thought of an RN government and flock to other parties or, at the worst, the RN might win a parliamentary majority but then make a disastrous mess of government before 2027. .In fact things have not worked out so neatly. On the first round of voting the RN (34%) took a clear lead over the Left (28%), with Macron's Centrists (20%) far behind. In only 76 seats did any party win the seat outright by taking 50% of the vote, so the other 501 seats had to be settled on the second round. To qualify for the second round run-off a party has to win 12.5% of the registered electorate on the first round, but with the Left, Centre and RN all substantial players, there were no less than 306 seats (out of 577) in which all three qualified. There was then an attempt to form a Republican Front against the RN, so that third placed candidates would stand down in favour of the leading non-RN candidate. .This meant that Centrists might have to stand down in favour of the fairly far Left New Popular Front (NFP) or vice versa – a pretty big ask since these parties are normally sworn enemies. It was unsurprising that many candidates felt this was a bridge too far so in 89 of the 306 constituencies there were three-cornered contests, which the French call triangulaires. In the previous two parliamentary elections there were never as many as five triangulaires but the fact is that the NFP is a lot more extreme than the old Socialist Party. Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of La France Insoumise (France Unbowed) and the NFP's most prominent leader, is an angry, divisive figure whose enthusiasm for the Palestinian cause has led him to make a number of shockingly anti-semitic statements. .France has both Europe's largest Muslim population and its largest Jewish community. French Jews normally favour the Left but they are horrified by Melenchon's vituperation and even Serge Klarsfeld, the famous Nazi-hunter and a hero to the Jewish community, has said he would vote for the RN against Melenchon. For her part, Marine Le Pen has been trying to position the RN as the protector of the Jews against Islamic extremism but too many Jews remember the virulent anti-semitism of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, for that to work very well. (Indeed, I remember going to one of his rallies where he inveighed bitterly against the Jews while his young leather-jacketed outriders handed out leaflets entitled "Jewish Cooking". The leaflet began "First, put your Jew in the oven….")..However, while the politicians found it impossible to observe "republican discipline" against the RN it seems clear that the voters did so massively. And with the NFP well ahead of the Centrists this involved large numbers of Centrist voters voting far Left, no doubt while holding their noses. The startling result is that although the Left won only 28% of the first round vote, it has now emerged as the largest bloc with 180-190 seats, with the Centre between 150-160 seats and the RN between 135 and 145 seats. In addition the centre-right Republicans (the old Gaullists) have 60 seats. Nobody expected this. On the one hand the RN has gained 45-55 seats while Macron's party has lost half its seats. On the other hand Melenchon is claiming a triumph and putting himself forward as a prime minister..That will not happen. He is distrusted even within the Left by both the Socialists and the Greens and Macron (who has to appoint the prime minister) loathes him. The most likely premier will be a Socialist or Green who then has to patch together a majority from the Centrists and Republicans together with a few Independents – not an easy job, but something Macron can certainly live with..The leaders of the RN are resentful, claiming that they have been robbed of a victory which should have been theirs. But in fact they will not be too unhappy. They have gained seats and confirmed their position as the leading party of France. Had they won power they would have faced some very awkward choices. They have promised (as has the NFP) to reverse Macron's pension reform, raising the retirement age from 62 to 64. But the fact is that France already owes more than 100% of GDP and ran a budget deficit of 5.5% of GDP this year so it absolutely cannot afford to lower pensionable age and in fact needs to further increase it. So if either the RN or the NFP had won power they would either have had to renege on their promises or create a financial crisis. Le Pen knows this and will be silently relieved not to have to face that choice. And she is still well positioned for a presidential campaign in 2027..Macron will also be quietly relieved. While things have not worked out as he imagined, the RN has come third and it looks as if some sort of centrist government may be cobbled together, much though both the Left and far Right will rage against it. This will enable Macron to claim the inevitability and/or the necessity of France being governed from the centre. But the fact is that the Centrists ran third with only 20% on the first round. To really succeed Macron needs to have a centrist dauphin who can run first or second in the 2027 presidential election (when only the top two go through to the second round). With both the extremes of Left and Right overpowering the Centre now, that looks like a considerable stretch..Read also:.Explainer: High-stakes run-offs – France's election showdown🔒 Macron, Le Pen: A guide to France's high stakes election🔒 France faces political turmoil as far-right surges in snap election

RW Johnson: French surprise – Left surges, Macron’s centrists struggle

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