DUBLIN — There’s no doubt that President Cyril Ramaphosa is walking a tightrope these days. He is trying to balance the competing demands of global investors and disillusioned South Africans at the same time as he is trying to hold together a divided ANC. It’s no easy task, even for a master negotiator like Ramaphosa. As South Africans go to the polls, Ramaphosa will be hoping that his efforts to root out corruption and attract foreign investment will be enough to woo voters who are sick of graft and tired of a struggling economy that has failed to deliver the jobs and growth needed. Adding to the pressure, Ramaphosa has the EFF biting at his heels from the left and the DA gamely trying to hold on to its piece of the centre. The 2019 election promises to be a watershed, one way or another. – Felicity Duncan
With South Africa at a crossroads, President seeks middle path in vote
By Gabriele Steinhauser
JOHANNESBURG – President Cyril Ramaphosa has positioned himself as a voice of moderation in the battle for the future of a South Africa torn between Nelson Mandela’s vision of a harmonious multiracial nation and increasingly angry demands for more-aggressive wealth redistribution.
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A former union leader turned millionaire businessman, Mr. Ramaphosa is seeking a full term as president in national elections on Wednesday, 25 years after his African National Congress won control of the government. His quest to keep the nation’s top job comes amid the heaviest pressure South Africa’s democracy has seen.
Faced with rampant government corruption and deep inequality, less than a quarter of South Africans say they want democracy and also reject different forms of authoritarian rule, according to a recent survey by polling firm Afrobarometer.
Prominent ANC members have dismissed the political and economic rights of white South Africans, while a hard-left party, which has called Mr. Mandela a sellout and encourages blacks to invade white-owned land, looks set to double its share of the vote, to as much as 14%.
“Failure of the mainstream policies is resulting in radicalism in our politics,” said Ralph Mathekga, a political analyst.
Mr. Ramaphosa – who ousted his scandal-battered predecessor, Jacob Zuma, last year – insists the country’s current economic model, which seeks to balance free-market policies with strong affirmative-action and social-security measures, is capable of delivering racial equality.
The 66-year-old has pledged to root out corruption in his party, establishing four commissions of inquiry that have resulted in near-daily revelations of bribes and other abuses of power.
“We defeated the monster of apartheid,” Mr. Ramaphosa said at the ANC’s main rally in Johannesburg on Sunday. “Working together, we can achieve the same now, with the challenges that we face.”
Success, the president’s allies say, will rest on his ability to harness the powers of persuasion he honed as the ANC’s chief negotiator in the talks to end apartheid and later as the head of South Africa’s constitutional assembly. Mr. Ramaphosa’s defense of Mr. Mandela’s values of racial equality and his willingness to reach out to opponents in times of trouble has won him the support of business and some white elites.
Among those backing the president is Roelf Meyer, who led the talks to end apartheid for the white-only National Party. In a recent interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Meyer recalled how Mr. Ramaphosa saved those negotiations minutes after they were plunged into their deepest crisis in mid-1992 – and why he will cast his vote for the ANC.
Mr. Meyer had just watched on live television as Mr. Mandela called off talks with the National Party following another township massacre of black civilians. When his phone rang shortly after, Mr. Meyer answered and heard Mr. Ramaphosa ask, “When can we talk?”
The two men opened a secret negotiation channel, which after three months of meetings in safe houses resulted in what few observers had deemed possible: a one-man-one-vote democracy that would guarantee the ANC’s dominance of South African politics for the next 25 years.
“I trust him, I believe in him and I think he’s the right person for the job,” Mr. Meyer said of Mr. Ramaphosa.
Today, the ANC’s dominance is increasingly coming under question. Polls indicate that it is on course for its weakest national election result, as many of its constituents chafe at the deep inequalities that continue to run through South African society.
The main beneficiary is expected to be the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters, while the biggest opposition party, the centrist Democratic Alliance, could even fall below the 22% it got in 2014.
Black South Africans on average still earn just over 20% of their white compatriots’ income, according to the national statistics office. Black children are much less likely to finish high school or college, while white South Africans, who make up around 8% of the population, own 73% of the nation’s agricultural land.
In recent years, the economy has fallen behind its emerging-market peers, growing just 0.8% last year. When including discouraged job seekers, the unemployment rate stood at 37% at the end of 2018.
Mr. Ramaphosa’s supporters and many analysts warn that the president will struggle to push through his plans to overhaul the economy and clean up the ANC’s ranks should the party fall below 60% on Wednesday. Mr. Zuma and other members of the ANC leadership have been lukewarm in their support for Mr. Ramaphosa, and several politicians who have been implicated in corruption scandals remain in his cabinet.
The president has found himself working to moderate his own party’s positions, including plans to change the constitution to allow the expropriation of land without compensation, in an effort to attract foreign investment.
“If he gets a weak mandate and he is being systematically sabotaged by his opponents within the party, then he has no chance to save South Africa and lead an economic recovery,” said Colin Coleman, head of sub-Saharan Africa at Goldman Sachs who has known Mr. Ramaphosa since the early 1990s.
There are some signs that the president’s strategy is paying off. Foreign direct investment in South Africa increased last year for the first time since 2013, despite poor growth, and the president’s personal ratings have trended above those of the ANC.
But in his drive to revive the economy, Mr. Ramaphosa has also faced accusations of losing sight of the plight of ordinary citizens. After leading negotiations on South Africa’s constitution, and having been passed over as Mr. Mandela’s deputy president in favour of Thabo Mbeki, Mr. Ramaphosa left politics in 1996 to become one of the country’s richest black businessmen.
The man who led South Africa’s biggest mining strike soon joined the boards of companies he once fought, and investing in the local franchises of McDonald’s Corp. and Coca-Cola Co. He kicks back over a round of golf and enjoys spending time with his herd of cloned Ugandan cattle.
The darkest stain on his reputation stems from 2012, months before he re-entered politics as deputy ANC leader behind Mr. Zuma. That August, Mr. Ramaphosa intervened in a violent wildcat strike of workers at a Lonmin PLC platinum mine. An investor in Lonmin at the time, Mr. Ramaphosa wrote an email to a company executive, calling for the “dastardly criminal” protesters to be dealt with. A day later, police opened fire on the striking miners, killing 34.
A government inquiry cleared him of wrongdoing and he has said he intervened to prevent further bloodshed.
Many South Africans also question why Mr. Ramaphosa didn’t do more to stop the corruption in Mr. Zuma’s government while he was deputy president.
“Ramaphosa was part of ANC. He could have initiated all his current changes then,” said Zizi Mthiya, a 29-year-old former shop assistant now looking for a job. “Instead, he watched as the country was robbed.”
– Write to Gabriele Steinhauser at [email protected]
