Earlier this week, German leader Angela Merkel warned that the coronavirus could end up infecting up to 70% of Germans. Many were shocked by the pronouncement – and some said it’s a little on the gloomy side – but most epidemiologists agree that it’s not unrealistic. Indeed, the global consensus at this point seems to be that between 30% and 60% of people will become infected at some point, depending on how effective the global response to the virus is.
But here’s the crucial thing – this process could take a long time. That 70% infection rate could take up to two years to achieve if measures to slow the spread of the virus are effective. In other words, the coronavirus – and its associated turmoil – could be with us for a long time.
The reason for this is that this is a novel virus. Everyone who is being exposed to it is being exposed for the very first time. That means that none of us has any built-up immunity to the coronavirus the way we do with the influenza virus. Since most people have had the flu at some point, most of us have some degree of natural immunity to the flu – our bodies have fought it off before and are ready to do so again.
___STEADY_PAYWALL___
In addition, we have flu vaccines. Although they are never 100% effective – sometimes, their effectiveness is as low as 20-30% – even a relatively ineffective virus offers some people some protection, and every little bit helps.
Thus, when the flu spreads, it spread slowly and it skips a lot of people, including many who are exposed and would become ill if they didn’t have natural immunity or the benefits of the vaccine.
We have none of this for the coronavirus. It’s a brand-new thing – it’s as if aliens had shot a virus down from space. Our immune systems are unprepared to deal with it and a vaccine is at least a year or so away. Therefore, the coronavirus is going to continue to spread through the population.
The only thing we can do is try and slow it down. That means quarantines for confirmed cases, hand hygiene, social distancing, and perhaps travel restrictions. If we can slow down the spread of the virus, we can buy much-needed time to develop a vaccine, develop treatments, and build up herd immunity (as recovered – and thus at least partially immune – people join the population, they act as a kind of natural barrier against the spread of the virus).
But here’s the problem. This strategy means that we will be in coronavirus defence mode for a long time – possibly years, in a worst-case scenario. And that would mean some major changes to the way we live.
First, it may mean changes to our work schedules. In China, while quarantine measures have been lifted, workers are being asked to work in staggered shifts. Working from home remains common, and seating arrangements have been altered to create more space between people to help prevent infections. Depending on the type of work you do, you may face similar measures in your workplace, and they may be in place for a long time.
It may mean changes to schools. Many schoolchildren around the world are missing classes as schools shut down. They may be asked to make up the missed lessons later in the year, or they may be asked to complete schoolwork remotely. This will put additional pressure on parents, especially if they simultaneously face changes to their work schedules.
Your social life will also change. There are now widespread restrictions on mass gatherings in many countries around the world. Concerts, conferences, and sporting events are being cancelled or played out in empty stadiums. Meetings are happening online, and travel is plunging. This marks a major change to the way we live, and it is likely that the situation will continue for the foreseeable future.
This will all mean deep changes to our economy too. Supply chains will shorten as companies move production around to avoid the problems associated with travel and quarantines. Restaurants and cinemas will close. Jobs will be lost in many industries, but others, like delivery, healthcare, and perhaps even some kinds of manufacturing, will create new ones.
In short, we all need to be preparing for the long haul. The coronavirus is not like a hurricane or a flood. Those are discrete events that happen once, leaving people to pick up the pieces over the following months. This pandemic is going to be a long-term problem. We need to prepare.
