WORLDVIEW: What if the coronavirus crisis lasts for years?

Earlier this week, German leader Angela Merkel warned that the coronavirus could end up infecting up to 70% of Germans. Many were shocked by the pronouncement – and some said it's a little on the gloomy side – but most epidemiologists agree that it's not unrealistic. Indeed, the global consensus at this point seems to be that between 30% and 60% of people will become infected at some point, depending on how effective the global response to the virus is.

But here's the crucial thing – this process could take a long time. That 70% infection rate could take up to two years to achieve if measures to slow the spread of the virus are effective. In other words, the coronavirus – and its associated turmoil – could be with us for a long time.

The reason for this is that this is a novel virus. Everyone who is being exposed to it is being exposed for the very first time. That means that none of us has any built-up immunity to the coronavirus the way we do with the influenza virus. Since most people have had the flu at some point, most of us have some degree of natural immunity to the flu – our bodies have fought it off before and are ready to do so again.

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