South Africa’s coronavirus case count and Covid-19 death toll continue to rise as government expands testing. Yet, although the virus is still advancing, we are reopening our economy. By doing so, we face two risks – a renewed and more aggressive surge in cases and a derailed economic recovery. But the alternative – endless lockdown – is clearly impossible. South Africa is not alone in trying to navigate this difficult paradox. In this episode, which features content from the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, we look at why countries are reopening despite the ongoing spread of Covid-19 and what this means for growth and public health. – Felicity Duncan
Countries around the world are facing an impossible dilemma: Covid-19 is spreading fast and their economies are in a tailspin. In South Africa, we’ve seen our case count and death toll mounting up right alongside ever-grimmer economic news. Like most countries, we’ve decided to forge ahead with reopening despite the worsening public health crisis.
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Naturally, there are major risks with this strategy (as there would be with any strategy at this stage). The biggest risk is that we lose millions of lives worldwide. At a national level, in South Africa, we risk overwhelming our hospitals and seeing an unacceptable death toll as medical professionals are unable to help all of those who need care. This would, obviously, have serious economic consequences. But remaining in lockdown is clearly unsustainable. We are already suffering a staggering economic cost from the measures put in place to save lives.
And so, like many countries including the United States, we are forging ahead with an economic reopening despite the risks. It’s an entirely understandable approach – we cannot afford to keep families cooped up forever. But we must face the risks associated with this approach and governments must do what they can to minimise them.
In this episode, featuring content from the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, we explore the state of the pandemic, the logic of reopening, and what countries and investors should do to deal with the risks we all face.
