Alec Hogg: Second thoughts on taking profit in portfolio

I've been reflecting ahead of today's webinar at noon updating the BizNews Share portfolio. Given the portfolio's exceptional performance over the past six and a bit years (30%pa compound), there's a natural temptation to lock in profits.

Read also: Alec Hogg: Last chance to join us in Berg

Also, there is little doubt global share markets are toppy, especially in the US which sets the global trend. Particulary concerning is how "dumb money" is flooding in with retail investors swarming into high beta stocks, many punting on margin. When small players regard themselves as bullet-proof, markets are very definitely into the final stage of the Bull Run.

Plus, as this newsletter reported last week, the share market valuation index made famous by Warren Buffett (above) – US market cap as a % of GDP – which is at unprecendented levels. It now surpasses the peaks of pre-Crash bubbles in 1987 and 1999. Although operations of digital businesses will continue to benefit from seismic economic shifts, their valuations are also stretched.

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