China’s military theatre and the hard truths for the SANDF: Ricardo Teixeira
Key topics:
China uses military parades as tools of politics and global influence
SANDF weakened by underfunding, losing regional credibility and capacity
South Africa must align military narrative with real strengths, not theatre
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By Ricardo Teixeira*
The spectacle went beyond the weapons on display. It was a choreographed performance of narrative power, designed to show that China intends not only to defend its interests but also to shape the global order. For South Africa, the event is instructive, but it also highlights the widening gap between Pretoria’s ambition and its means to achieve it.
China has turned the military parade into an instrument of politics. Xi cast the event as a moment of historic choice: peace or war, dialogue or confrontation. The ranks of troops, tanks and missile systems gave weight to that message, underscoring China’s ability to back words with force. In Beijing, spectacle is a central tool of statecraft. In Pretoria, it is increasingly an afterthought.
South Africa once possessed the capacity to project credible power, at least across the region. In the late apartheid years and during the democratic transition, the South African Defence Force, later the South African National Defence Force, was regarded as capable, even if controversial. It could move troops quickly, conduct combined-arms operations and sustain complex missions. That competence gave Pretoria diplomatic weight and lent credibility to its early peacekeeping ventures.
Hollowed out by neglect
That credibility has since been eroded. Chronic underfunding has hollowed out the SANDF. Gripen fighters, Valour-class frigates and Rooivalk helicopters spend more time docked or grounded than in service. The navy struggles to put vessels to sea. The army relies on ageing equipment, much of it from the Border War era. Defence spending as a share of GDP continues to shrink, leaving South Africa unable to meet even modest regional obligations.
The contrast with Beijing is stark. While China showcases hypersonic missiles, fifth-generation aircraft and unmanned systems, South Africa battles to maintain basic airlift. Where China uses spectacle to project unity and strength, Pretoria would only risk exposing its weakness if it attempted anything similar. Even the modest flypasts and troop displays once seen at the State of the Nation address have dwindled. The erosion of hard power has become a strategic liability, undermining regional influence.
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Collapse of humanitarian capacity
South Africa once built credibility not just through arms but through humanitarian reach, peacekeeping, disaster response and medical support. These capabilities are also faltering. When floods recently struck the Eastern Cape, the SANDF managed only a single helicopter, dispatched a week late.
While the failure to respond to a domestic emergency was symbolic, the Second Battle of Goma and subsequent withdrawal and termination of SAMIDRC laid bare the extent to which SANDF’s peacekeeping capability had collapsed. South Africa no longer has the ability to use humanitarian deployments as instruments of soft power. Without functioning transport aircraft or air support, and with an under-resourced army, even small regional operations are precarious.
The lesson is clear: symbolism requires substance. Attempting theatre without capability exposes fragility rather than projecting strength. The erosion of capability has gone hand in hand with a loss of credibility, and, by extension, any semblance of deterrence.
Caution in geopolitics
China’s parade was not just theatre for domestic audiences, but also a geopolitical signal, with Xi flanked by Putin and Kim. For South Africa, a BRICS member still relying heavily on Western trade and investment, such overt alignment would be reckless. Pretoria’s posture depends on retaining room to manoeuvre between blocs.
A parade that tied South Africa too visibly to one camp would damage that flexibility. Yet Pretoria may already be drifting in that direction, as it scheduled Mosi III, a naval exercise with Russia and China, to coincide with the upcoming G20 Summit. The timing of the manoeuvre risked backfiring, and Pretoria may have realised this, as the SANDF announced its postponement yesterday afternoon after consulting the Presidency and DIRCO.
Aligning image with reality
Military parades are about psychology as much as they are about hardware. China has mastered their use as an extension of diplomacy. South Africa can learn from the principle, but not the practice. Its narrative power depends on acknowledging diminished military capacity, something the Department of Defence has been unable to admit, and crafting a new story that still carries weight abroad. Additionally, modernisation of defence capabilities, while acknowledging the diplomatic heft that accompanies them, is becoming a strategic imperative in an increasingly militaristic world.
The central lesson is the importance of alignment. Beijing can parade hypersonic missiles because it possesses them. Pretoria cannot. South Africa must frame a narrative that fits its real strengths: its history of liberation and irregular warfare, its responsibility as a regional stabiliser, and its potential as an enforcer of peace rather than as a projector of hard power.
China’s parade demonstrated the enduring potency of military theatre. For South Africa, the challenge is to find a stage of its own, one that reflects its limits yet delivers a message the world takes seriously.
*Ricardo Teixeira, who has joined the Daily Friend as Associate Editor, is a journalist, defence analyst, and national security advocate. He champions integrity, competence, and long-term reform in South Africa’s security and defence architecture. With a multidisciplinary background, he combines rigorous research with clear communication to deliver practical, insightful analysis.
This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission.