Chuck Stephens: Battery dreams, Diesel reality - SA’s energy policy is out of touch
Key topics
SA’s EV plan ignores poor grid, high costs, and few charging stations
Solar power adoption grows as households seek off-grid independence
On-board hydrogen and mild hybrids offer faster, cheaper fuel savings
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By Chuck Stephens*
Powering past coal… a just energy transition… a green new deal… carbon mitigation…
Believe it or not, as we all contend with load-shedding and power cuts due to cable-theft, they are actually prescribing EVs as the solution beyond 2030. It is to be a battery-dominated future. Notwithstanding the high purchase price of EVs, poor electricity networks, and the scarcity of public e-charging stations - which are the primary impediments that obstruct the transition from conventional automobiles to EVs.
Renewable Energy is general and solar in particular are blazing the trail. Most people are learning how to “think trade-offs” and how to calculate the benefits. The up-front costs are always intimidating, but the “pay-back” comes within just a few years. Namely the money you save on electricity bills, which are rising fast. How many months or years will it take to "offset" the initial surge of spending? That term “offsetting” is the key. If the hardware comes with a ten-year warranty and you can offset the purchase cost with four years, then you notionally will get 6-plus years of free solar electricity. That takes you “off grid”. There is a whole new vocabulary around this transition… trade-offs, pay-backs, offsets and off grid.
We should bear in mind that the cost of moving electricity is very high, compared to the costs of moving diesel or petrol. This is often overlooked because once all that infrastructure is built, electricity seems to move so silently and effortlessly. But that grid is very expensive to build. Ultimately, moving electricity is five times costlier than moving petrol or diesel. This does not bode well for the advent of EVs, which will require a network of charging stations to be user-friendly.
Let’s do the math. There are 1.6 billion automobiles in the world. Of these, 40 million are EVs. That is 2.5 percent. Certainly, the EV has made a strong showing, but there are various reasons why it may not be the optimal solution that it is often touted to be. But I digress.
In South Africa, there are 12 million automobiles. 2500 of these are EVs. That is 0.02 percent. Nowhere near the global benchmark of 2.5 percent. And EVs have been adopted as the post-2030 energy solution for transport? This seems silly.
In countries with a higher ratio of EVs, policymakers are trying to get more people into fewer vehicles. Fact is, South Africa is exemplary in this respect. It is a trend-setter, because so many people travel on shared taxis. While the world tries to move people towards that trending, South Africa is dreaming of EVs.
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Fifteen years ago, not very many homes had solar water heaters. Then they started to sprout like mushrooms. They are now ubiquitous on rooftops. Solar PV panels are also becoming more common, to power light and charging inside homes. Load-shedding prompted this shift to off-grid. But ultimately, it is about those trade-offs, pay-backs, and offsets. Economics is the driver.
In 1900, buying a horse and buggy cost the buyer the equivalent of about ten years’ salary. These days, you can buy a pre-owned car for the equivalent of about 6 months’ salary. This economic leveraging is what drives technology transfer. Not a guilty conscience about polluting the atmosphere. The accumulation of litter in South Africa attests to the fact that environmental concern is not rated as highly as convenience or affordability. Henry Ford famously put it this way: “What my customers wanted was a faster horse that eats less hay and that poops a lot less.”
There are about 18 million homes in South Africa, slowly migrating to solar “off-grid” solutions. There are also 12 million automobiles.
Forget the transition to an all-electric-car-future. It is not going to happen. Not anytime soon.
Green hydrogen? Maybe someday you will pull into a service station and find a petrol pump, a diesel pump, and a hydrogen pump. Maybe in 20+ years. Green hydrogen is an alternative fuel.
But there is already a hydrogen solution. It is called “on-board hydrogen”. Sometimes called “on-demand hydrogen”. This is not a fuel. It is aspirated into the combustion chamber, through the engine’s air intake. It improves the burning. Most engines burn up about 60 percent of the diesel or petrol injected. The rest leaves the tail-pipe in the form of pollution. With on-board hydrogen, about 90 percent of the injected fuel is burned including all the carbon. So the emissions are cleaner. No carbon. The same engine has more power. And fuel consumption drops.
Here we go again with trade-offs, pay-backs and offsets.
You can order a new car with this hybrid, installed on the assembly line as it is built. But this system is also available as an after-market installation. More vocabulary – “retrofit”.
This should be the centrepiece of South Africa's energy policy. Reducing the fuel consumption and emissions of 99.8 percent of those 12 million automobiles. Not migrating to EVs. These are quick wins and BIG WINS.
On-board hydrogen is compatible with a second type of hybrid. It is called “mild” electric hybrid. This is a 48-volt low voltage system upgrading the usual 12-volt system. Using a sensor/controller (a small motherboard) it can tell when the engine is under load or coasting. In auto-speak, coasting is “regenerative braking mode”. What happens is that – on cue - the 48-volt alternator switches into being an electric motor. These motors have huge torque. Using the same belts and pulleys that are usually connected so the engine can charge the battery, now the alternator is driving the car forward, resting the engine and thus saving on fuel consumption.
Combining these two hybrids can cut the fuel consumption of conventional engines by up to 50 percent. Imagine the savings if this could be multiplied by half the 12 million automobiles on the road in South Africa! This should be seen as an act of patriotism, reducing fuel imports and lowering our collective carbon footprint.
Sometimes it is hard to see the forest for the trees - the best option is overlooked because it is so obvious. South Africa needs to re-think its energy policy going forward.
*Chuck Stephens: Desmond Tutu Centre for Leadership