A Le Pen presidency could shatter Europe’s most powerful alliance: Lionel Laurent

A potential Marine Le Pen presidency in France could reshape Europe’s political landscape, with consequences that extend beyond the continent. As Germany worries about instability in its most important EU partnership, South Africa must watch how shifting European priorities affect trade, investment and global diplomacy. The EU remains one of South Africa’s biggest economic partners, supporting exports, infrastructure projects and climate funding. A rise in nationalist politics could influence Europe’s approach to trade, foreign aid and geopolitical alliances. For Pretoria, the challenge will be maintaining strong economic ties while navigating a more divided and inward-looking Europe..By Lionel Laurent.“The president of France is my friend, whoever it may be,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said a few months ago. But what if the next one turns out to be far-right figurehead Marine Le Pen, known for hostility to European integration, objecting to more aid for Ukraine and resisting corrections to the bloated state of France’s public finances?That’s the question being asked in the corridors of power in Berlin, where any conversation about the Franco-German relationship brings up polls showing Le Pen is still the favorite to win 2027 elections despite an embezzlement conviction she’s fighting to appeal. Her arrival in the Elysee would put a smile on the faces of Elon Musk and Donald Trump but rock the European project to its core. While Le Pen’s National Rally no longer advocates for Frexit, her France-first ideology heralds bust-ups with Brussels over spending, trade and security; it would also hand a symbolic victory to Germany’s own far-right AfD party ahead of state elections in September that could pressure Merz’s already strained coalition.Hence why fear of a President Le Pen is already making cooperation between the two nations harder in the face of Trumpian bullying, Russian drones and China’s technological export leap that’s hollowing out what’s left of European industry. When the Franco-German FCAS fighter jet was scrapped earlier this year, the risk of a populist-led France was on German officials’ minds. When talks on European nuclear deterrence began, the CDU’s then-parliamentary leader Jens Spahn told Politico that Germany wouldn’t want to rely on Le Pen or Nigel Farage. When Germany’s artificial-intelligence startup sold itself to Canada’s Cohere Inc., the $20 billion deal was presented by some as a way to diversify from France. The Elysee’s current occupant, Emmanuel Macron, has his own issues with a go-it-alone Germany willing to elbow its way to the top of the defense-spending league tables without much deference to others. Still, it’s hard to blame Berlin for a less nostalgic approach to dealing with Paris, especially as Le Pen promotes policies like a cut to the retirement age to 62 from 64. As France spins its policy wheels in the face of a deficit that could swell to 7% of output by 2030, some in Berlin argue it’s time for contingency planning a la Brexit: Professor Timo Lochocki of the Quadriga University of Applied Sciences Berlin tells me: “Instead of wishful thinking about France, Germany should prepare for the forging of new alliances and diversifying of technology partners to minimize risk.”A bit of Franco-German competition is a good thing, but there’s a growing risk of something mutually destructive, as former German Vice Chancellor Joschka Fischer recently put it. A widening trust deficit is bad for a relationship that accounts for broadly half the euro area’s gross domestic product. Captains of industry seem to agree: Airbus SE Chairman Rene Obermann has called for France and Germany to end “industrial nationalism” in defense and focus more on long-term strategies to respond to China’s rise. This, however, is easier said than done at a time when some bankers talk about France the way they once did about the UK, pointing to their firm’s Frankfurt operations as a hedge against possible political risk.Could a more positive or pragmatic mood take hold in the months to come? After all, Le Pen in the Elysee is no laughing matter but she’s not there yet. And the quiet schadenfreude on France’s lax attitude to spending overlooks the bigger picture: What ails France also bedevils Germany, namely lackluster economies that fuel support for the far-right (not just because of immigration.) Merz deserves credit for tackling spending taboos but the AfD’s strength is a symptom of his country’s structural problems after decades of dependence — not on France but on Chinese exports, Russian energy and US security. Bloomberg Economics estimates that German GDP since 2019 has undershot a basket of advanced economies by a whopping 7%.If there needs to be any urgency, it’s on growth. It’s certainly encouraging to hear Merz pledge reforms in line with former European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s pro-competitiveness recommendations, back a pensions overhaul and say that he won’t prevent cross-border mergers like UniCredit SpA’s bid for Commerzbank AG. But plenty is missing: Stronger trade defenses against China, a real industrial policy and large-scale investments to unleash productivity — and that’s without even getting into the permanently stuck eurobonds debate. One might also question whether interest rates set by the ECB are stifling the French economy, where inflation softened to 2% in June, the biggest retreat in more than a year..Read more:.Macron handed opportunity to make France more Le Pen-proof.Fear of a President Le Pen is understandable. But it seems counter-productive to be building firewalls. Facts are stubborn when it comes to interdependence, as Yann Wernert of the Institut Jacques Delors points out: Open up a list of Germany’s top trading partners in 2025 and France is second behind the US for exports. Paris and Berlin should take that as a cue to work together on growth — while their leaders are still friends..© 2026 Bloomberg L.P..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

A Le Pen presidency could shatter Europe’s most powerful alliance: Lionel Laurent

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