Don’t be fooled: SA’s racial tensions run deeper than 'Kill the Boer' - Matt Chancey

Key topics:

• Majority of EFF supporters disagree with Malema's "Kill the Boer" rhetoric.

• Survey reveals persistent negative views of minorities among South African blacks.

• Black nationalist rhetoric threatens minority rights and racial harmony in South Africa.

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*By Matt Chancey

Much has been made about the recent survey conducted by the Social Research Foundation (SRF) finding that an overwhelming majority (83 percent) of EFF supporters believe that singing “Kill the Boer” is either “hate speech” or “irresponsible speech.”

The “glass half full” analysis of this finding is that party leader Julius Malema has no support among his base for his inflammatory statements, and that most South African blacks feel that it’s wrong to sing “struggle songs” which promote race-based genocide.

SRF’s survey was conducted by the highly credible Victory Research, which can explain why many people reading it are encouraged. “South Africans are moderates on the subject of race” we are told.

I hate to be the skunk at the garden party, but I would be highly cautious as seeing this new survey as an indicator of a significant contrast in black attitudes towards minorities from the fiery rhetoric of Malema and Co. 

I have examined political polling data for decades and I can tell you that 83 percent of people disagreeing with Malema on this one issue (important as it may be) does not translate into those same people leaving the EFF and voting elsewhere (except perhaps for other black nationalist parties). The mere fact that 83 percent of EFF supporters disagree with Malema tells you that this disagreement is a minor one.

Nor should we conclude from the survey that EFF voters (or black voters in general) have a largely favourable disposition towards South Africans of other races. I can say this because we have several years of data to suggest otherwise. 

In 2021, 2023, and 2025, Victory Research conducted surveys for the Cape Independence Advocacy Group (CapeIndependence.org) in the Western Cape Province. In one section of all of these surveys, respondents were asked to react to a pair of statements:

I believe South Africa is an African [black] country and that other races should behave as guests.

I believe South Africa belongs to everyone who lives here regardless of their race.

Of all the black respondents, comfortable majorities for all three surveys (2021: 54%, 2023: 69%, 2025: 54%) agreed that Whites, Indians, Cape Coloureds, etc., should be treated as guests. 

Compare this with Whites, who overwhelmingly responded that South Africa belongs to everyone, regardless of race (2021: 89%, 2023: 88%, 2021: 78%).

This is the negative perception that persists in South Africa: most South African blacks see non-blacks not just as second-class citizens, but as guests.

Now, when you consider that 80+ percent of the South African population is black, and that this demographic dominance is only going to get larger in the coming years, minorities in the country have a major problem on their hands— something that goes way beyond a “struggle song.” 

Today, one out of six South Africans over the age of 50 years is White. But when you consider the category of children under five years of age, only one out of 32 are White. 

What this means is that the alarming statistics reported by the Cape Independence Advocacy Group are only going to get worse— unless there is somehow a seismic shift of black opinion. But judging from the race-baiting, victimhood rhetoric of all three major black nationalist parties in South Africa, there doesn’t seem to be much interest in changing the tune which has played much longer than “Kill the Boer.” 

Is there a way forward for minorities in South Africa? Yes, I believe there is. But before those options can be considered, it’s important that people not be deceived on where they stand, and lulled into false hopes when there is some very hard work to be done, and very tough decisions to be made— and made soon.

*Matt Chancey is an American executive of a charitable, faith-based NGO. He has worked in Africa for more than 20 years.