SA’s moment: Turning US scrutiny into strategic opportunity - John Endres

Key topicsSA must respond to US interest with pragmatism, not moral posturingUse SA's location to boost US security ties and AUKUS integrationPropose bold reforms to unlock US investment in mining and energy.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Endres*.When President Cyril Ramaphosa meets with US President Donald Trump on Wednesday, he will do so against the backdrop of a diplomatic relationship under strain. The leader of the world’s most powerful nation is paying unusually close attention to a country that is a minor player in global affairs. This is a rare chance for South Africa to secure meaningful economic and strategic advantages, if it plays its cards wisely. .Be smart and don’t lecture .The worst approach President Ramaphosa’s team could take is to attempt to rebuke or “correct” the US president. Dismissiveness, historical grievance, or moral posturing will gain South Africa nothing. Instead, the South African negotiators must let subtlety and pragmatism guide the discussion. The South African delegation should avoid getting stuck on the elephants in the room: President Trump’s claims that a “white genocide” is underway in South Africa and his offer of refuge to Afrikaners. On these questions it will not be possible to win a victory by confrontation. Instead, South Africa’s negotiators should acknowledge South Africa’s weaknesses upfront. Economic growth is low, unemployment is high, and poverty is rising. President Trump is not entirely wrong when he says that South Africa is “a mess”. In addressing the refugee issue, the negotiators can acknowledge that the United States is sovereign and can design refugee programmes however it wishes. They can recognise the generosity inherent in offering South Africans an opportunity to make a better life for themselves in the US. Having made the point, however – and having acknowledged that there would be no need for such a programme if South Africa were developing in a more positive direction – they should move on with the discussion. Similarly, when it comes to the question of “white genocide”, they should simply acknowledge that South Africa suffers from an extremely high rate of violent crime, which affects white South Africans as well as South Africans of all other race groups. This represents a failing of the South African state’s responsibility to protect the life, liberty, and property of South Africans, and one that must be addressed whatever narratives about “white genocide” might exist. Again, once the point has been made, the negotiators should move on. .Leverage South Africa’s geographic position .Having addressed some of the main points of contention, and given President Trump’s grand view of geopolitics, they should guide the conversation towards South Africa’s geographical position, straddling one of the key maritime choke points at the Cape of Good Hope. The maritime route leading past South Africa is an important alternative route for global maritime trade whenever there are disruptions in the Suez Canal or the Bab el-Mandeb, the “Gate of Tears” strait off Yemen. When the Houthis, a militant group based in Yemen, started disrupting shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb from late 2023, cargo ships, container ships and oil tankers were diverted around the Cape of Good Hope. .Read more:.Ramaphosa seeks to calm US storm in upcoming meeting with Trump.It is in the US interest that this route be kept safe and clear, especially given the parlous state of the South African navy. .Security .Going further, the Cape of Good Hope maritime route and the Simon’s Town naval base are key assets in global trade and security. President Ramaphosa’s visit presents the ideal occasion to make a bold suggestion: South Africa should be considered for integration into the AUKUS security partnership. Such a move would strategically connect the Atlantic interests of the US with those in the Indo-Pacific, with South Africa forming a logical linking pin between the two. Although Namibia and Angola present alternative points of connection, they do not offer the same benefits as South Africa. Cutting South Africa into AUKUS as part of the US transatlantic partnership would represent a bold recognition of South Africa’s geostrategic importance. It would immediately upgrade the stature of the South African government as a key partner in safeguarding global trade and security..A mutual interest in investment .The US considers China its main geopolitical rival. However, for over a decade, China has maintained a higher level of investment than the US on the continent, especially in infrastructure projects like roads, railways and power plants. This is a vulnerability the US should urgently address. South Africa offers the ideal foothold. With South Africa’s fixed investment at a dire 15% of GDP, South Africa desperately needs capital to get out of its investment malaise and spur growth. Here, US and South African interests align. In practical terms, South Africa is an ideal investment destination for the US. The country is English-speaking, boasts a favourite climate, good golf courses, and beautiful vineyards. As the US thinks about how to increase fixed investment in Africa, it will be a lot easier to convince its expats to live in Cape Town than Kinshasa or Luanda. With this in mind, South Africa should present a targeted investment agenda, beginning with bilateral mining investment. US mining capacity has atrophied over the decades, weakening the ability of the US to self-supply minerals it considers strategically important. South African expertise could play a role in revitalising the US mining sector. Meanwhile, US capital could help resuscitate South Africa’s own ailing mining sector, which suffers from infrastructure bottlenecks and mining policy paralysis. By aggressively reforming its mining policy to make it more attractive for investment, South Africa could aim to attract $70 billion in investment over the next decade. .Read more:.Donald J Trump, the political persona and why Afrikaners like him: Koos Malan.Energy presents another compelling area for partnership. South Africa’s electricity crisis — characterised by blackouts and skyrocketing prices — has decimated its industrial competitiveness. With its large coal reserves, estimated to last 200 years at current levels of production, and its fleet of 18 coal-fired power stations, South Africa could benefit from US investment and technical know-how to restore and refit its base-load capacity. This is an area where the Trump administration’s greater openness to fossil fuels stands in stark contrast to European hostility, offering a less ideological and more pragmatic approach to energy development. South Africa should use this opportunity. Beyond coal, South Africa should invite US expertise to help explore and develop potential oil and gas deposits off the West Coast. And looking ahead, firms like Westinghouse could play a central role in building new-generation nuclear facilities that offer clean, reliable energy for decades. South Africa’s collapsing freight rail network, dysfunctional ports, and patchy internet access are further areas where American capital and technology could make a decisive difference. Allowing services like Starlink to operate unhindered in South Africa would not only enhance connectivity, especially in rural areas, but also stimulate entrepreneurship and improve educational outcomes. .What South Africa must offer in return .Crucially, none of this requires handouts. American investors are willing to risk their own capital if the returns are worthwhile and their rights protected. But to unlock this investment, South Africa must make binding commitments. First, exempt US investors from all race-based laws, localisation rules, and ownership quotas. No BEE partners. No racial staffing targets. No preferential procurement requirements. Investment should be rewarded on merit, not manipulated through bureaucratic racial engineering. Second, property rights must be unambiguously secured against threats both private and public. The Expropriation Act, in its current form, chills investment. The IRR has published practical proposals to safeguard legitimate state authority while protecting investors’ rights – these should be adopted. To protect property rights against threats from private actors, South Africa must get serious about tackling its crime problem. In this area it should accept any offers of assistance the US can give. .Seize the moment .President Trump’s criticisms may sting, but they also spotlight a unique opening for South Africa. Rather than appealing to outdated anti-imperialist rhetoric or seeking sympathy from the global South, the Ramaphosa administration should advance a hard-nosed, mutually beneficial offer. Strategic cooperation, serious investment, and real reform are all within reach – but only if South Africa is prepared to meet strength with substance. With the local government elections approaching and due to be held in late 2026 or early 2027, voters will be watching to see which leaders can turn global scrutiny into strategic opportunity. South Africa cannot afford to waste another moment waiting for goodwill that never arrives. It must act boldly, and with urgency. .This article was first published by DailyFriend and is republished with permission.*John Endres is the CEO of the Institute of Race Relations (IRR). He holds a doctorate in commerce and economics from one of Germany’s leading business schools, the Otto Beisheim School of Management, as well as a Master’s in Translation Studies from the University of the Witwatersrand.

SA’s moment: Turning US scrutiny into strategic opportunity - John Endres

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