Seán McLaughlin: Learning from Gauteng’s political deadlock as DA closes in on power

Following a poor election result in 2024, Gauteng's ANC formed a controversial coalition with radical left parties, sidelining centrist allies like the DA. Despite controlling 98% of the budget with only 34.76% of votes, the ANC faces internal discord and declining voter support. The DA, choosing opposition over weak coalitions, positions itself as a future provincial leader..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..By Seán McLaughlin*.The provincial ANC negotiated in bad faith following this year's election..The ANC in that province dropped from 50.19% to 34.76% (the loss of 9 seats from 37 to 28, from a total of 80)..2024 Gauteng Provincial Legislature.The DA voted in the ANC Provincial Premier – Mr Lesufi – on the expectation that a centrist coalition would be formed with its support in that province, following the national lead..That was not to be. .Historians may draw a line to this being the moment the ANC moved from a broad church to multi-personality disorder..Provincial Premier Mr Lesufi would rather shun the centrists and do a deal with the radical far- left uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK) and the radical Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), both at a national and provincial level. That was entirely against the play of the national ANC structures..The Gauteng ANC has always been a rebel province (within the party), not taking orders from headquarters..The DA claimed that the provincial ANC, and Mr Lesufi, would not reveal which positions it would give the DA in the provincial government. The DA had therefore no way of knowing if the coalition deal would be workable..Three small parties have since joined the minority government in the province and the positions offered to those parties (which would have been offered to the DA), represent no more than 2% of the provincial budget (E-government, Environment and Agriculture). .Mr Lesufi's party of 34.76% of the vote is controlling 98% of budget..Those were unreasonable portfolios to offer the DA, which achieved 27.4% of the provincial vote, merely 6% behind the ANC..Had the DA said yes to coalition government in this instance, it would have been coopted, diluted, and its ability to affect change minimal. The Liberal Democrats of SA..It is precisely these kinds of deals that get coalitions bad reputations..Any prospect of the DA gaining political capital via this method would have gone up in the highveld smoke, as would have any centrist anchor in the province in future..The high number of voters in the province can boost any party's national tally..In future, a Gauteng turnaround could push the DA closer to its potential of around 30%. .It was therefore right to stand on the sidelines of this deal. The DA remains a provincial government in waiting, in opposition, nitpicking through parliamentary committees..Not the first time.That was the first time the DA sighted governance at a Gauteng provincial level. It likely knew that it was in for a tough negotiation..However, the DA and allies have before made various attempts to govern some of Gauteng's constituent cities..The real reason its attempts to govern the City of Johannesburg from 2016 and 2021 failed is that they lacked a majority and went into a minority government relying on votes from the far left (EFF). DA Federal Chairperson Mrs Zille has claimed that this was a fatal strategic error to lean votes from a party with an irreconcilable worldview..That the far left is excluded from a coalition at any level of government, is now considered a '101' for the party in coalition negotiations..The party views it as 'we-would-rather-stay-out-of-government-if-you must-rely-on-far-left votes. The-ANC-is-not-the-enemy-in-this-sense.'.Helen Zille has elucidated this concept of the battle for South Africa as below..2019 National Assembly: Helen Zille's Battle for South Africa.2024 National Assembly.The numbers, for the DA then, need to come from the centre/centre-right. That is the hard part..In coalitions of sorts, the partner(s) must be broadly ideologically aligned, reliable, and provide a comfortable majority..The DA, indeed, stumbled twice to govern Johannesburg. To the city's voters, then, it is case of 'Fool-me-once-shame-on-you. Fool-me-twice-shame-on-me. Fool-me-three-times-and-it-must-be-the-system'..Over time, the DA is closing in on the ANC on the provincial ballot. The largest party in a coalition is afforded key decision-making powers..ANC vs DA in Gauteng (Results at provincial elections).Within 20 years, the ANC has dropped from 68.40% to 34.76%. On the above trendline, the DA would finally overtake the ANC in Gauteng sometime around 2028. That is revealing but it is not a prediction..In polling carried out in 2022, the DA was ahead of the ANC on the provincial ballot (30% to 29%). Failed attempts to govern Johannesburg city council damaged the DA's prospects considerably in the minds of voters leading into the 2024 election. .Again, at the beginning of the election campaign in April 2024, the Social Research Foundation (SRF), a think tank, had the DA ahead of the ANC at 32% to 27%..Pre-Election polling in Gauteng Province.The head office of the DA did not respond to requests for comment on the party's strategy in the Gauteng province..In examples of impasses from elsewhere, the UK experienced deadlock following the vote for Brexit in 2016. That was resolved through re-elections. The Italian system of hyper-fragmentation lends itself to constant deadlock. Without reform to the system, that will remain a key reason for continued Italian economic underperformance. .The difference for Gauteng is that it is one province within a much larger system, and the current arithmetic will not hold forever..Deadlock can also be seen as a sign of political realignment. Gauteng may stand as a microcosm of what would have been if the DA went into opposition nationally in 2024: The ANC runs a minority government, relying on EFF and MK to pass budgets; Lesufi is unlikely to make this a formal coalition, which would equate to all-out war with the national ANC. Meanwhile, The DA sells itself as a government in waiting as the far left implodes..Something for the GNU to think about is whether improvements at a national level may be overshadowed by 'Microstate failure' in Gauteng..The deadlock could be broken in various ways including violent protests forcing policy shifts, a vote of no confidence in the Premier or a new centrist party with critical mass. A shake up could come from the national ANC. At the time of writing, it floated disbanding Gauteng provincial committees due to poor performance in the 2024 elections. .Alternatively, it may not, and provincial government change may not come until 2029. I will detail these moving parts in later columns..While the residents suffer most from SA's political thriller, this may be the last time that the ANC leads a government in the capital province..Read also:.SA minister appeals Vodacom fibre deal blockTrump 2.0: The implications for the US and South AfricaDe Beer: Zuma holds the "dirty secret" Aces; Mashatile fires a warning shot; Shivambu in MK power move.*Seán McLaughlin is a Political Scientist and Data Analyst..He can be reached on X and LinkedIn. .Previously, he has worked for data and news providers Wood Mackenzie and Acuris..He holds a degree in Arabic and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, as well as a degree in Data Science for Business, from the University of Stirling.

Seán McLaughlin: Learning from Gauteng’s political deadlock as DA closes in on power

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