South Africa’s problematic foreign policy shift: Implications for democracy and prosperity

Key topics:South Africa shifts foreign policy toward authoritarian states, raising concerns.Economic risks grow as AGOA lapses and Western trade ties weaken.Selective human-rights stance fuels credibility gap and domestic tensions..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Thando Nzimande.South Africa’s foreign policy is undergoing a marked shift, one that raises serious questions about its long-term implications for democracy, economic growth, and international credibility. While Pretoria continues to describe its approach as one of “active non-alignment,” recent actions suggest a growing distance from democratic partners and an increasing comfort with authoritarian states. This trajectory matters, not as an abstract moral debate, but because it carries tangible political and economic consequences for South Africans.The clearest recent illustration came in January 2026, when South Africa hosted joint naval exercises with Russia, China, and Iran off its coast near Simon’s Town. These drills drew sharp criticism from opposition parties, particularly the Democratic Alliance, which argued that hosting sanctioned and authoritarian states undermines claims of neutrality. Iran, in particular, remains subject to international sanctions linked to nuclear and arms concerns, and its domestic record includes well-documented repression of women, political dissent, and civil society. China’s extensive record of political repression and Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine further complicate Pretoria’s assertion that such engagements are purely technical or neutral..Read more:.South Africa pushes to secure AGOA trade pact amid tariff threats.South Africa’s deepening engagement with BRICS reinforces these concerns. The bloc expanded in 2024 to include Iran as a full member, alongside other non-democratic states. While BRICS is often framed as an economic counterweight to Western-dominated institutions, its growing political character cannot be ignored. Participation in such groupings inevitably signals alignment, even when leaders insist otherwise. For a country that once positioned itself as a bridge between democratic and developing worlds, this evolution represents a significant repositioning.The economic implications of this shift are substantial. The United States’ African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provided preferential market access to African exporters, expired at the end of September 2025 and has yet to be renewed. For South Africa, AGOA was a cornerstone of export access to the U.S. market, particularly in the automotive, agricultural, and manufacturing sectors. Policymakers and business leaders have repeatedly warned that the loss of preferential access threatens large numbers of jobs in an economy already struggling with unemployment exceeding 30 percent, and youth unemployment far higher.At the same time, trade relations with Western partners are under increasing strain. The European Union remains South Africa’s largest trading partner as a bloc, while the United States is a critical destination for value-added exports. Although China has become South Africa’s largest single-country trading partner by volume, this relationship does not replace the role played by Western markets in absorbing manufactured goods, supporting jobs, and providing investment. Foreign direct investment is highly sensitive to political risk and policy predictability, and growing uncertainty about South Africa’s geopolitical orientation has begun to factor into investor assessments.South Africa’s position as a major supplier of critical minerals underscores what is at stake. The country is a dominant global source of chromium and holds a significant share of the world’s economically viable manganese reserves, along with platinum-group metals essential to global manufacturing and energy transitions. These resources give South Africa considerable strategic importance. Yet instead of using this leverage to reinforce constructive relationships with key trading partners, Pretoria’s foreign policy choices risk encouraging diversification away from South African supply chains, weakening a major economic advantage.The credibility gap is further widened by South Africa’s selective application of human-rights principles. Pretoria has taken a highly visible role in legal proceedings against Israel at the International Court of Justice, while remaining notably restrained in its public responses to abuses by authoritarian partners. Israel’s status as a democracy with an independent judiciary, free press, and minority political representation stands in contrast to many of the regimes South Africa engages without comparable scrutiny. This uneven approach fuels perceptions that foreign policy is driven less by consistent principles than by political alignment and historical loyalties.That selectivity becomes especially stark when viewed against events currently unfolding inside Iran itself. Since late December 2025, widespread protests have erupted across the country, driven initially by economic hardship but quickly evolving into broader demands for political change. In response, Iranian authorities have imposed sweeping electricity disruptions and near-total internet blackouts, cutting off access to social media, messaging platforms, and independent news. Human-rights organisations and international observers report mass arrests, lethal force used against demonstrators, and a sharp escalation in executions following expedited trials that treat protest activity as a capital offence. With communications severed, families struggle to learn the fate of detained relatives and independent verification of abuses becomes nearly impossible. These developments represent one of the most severe crackdowns in Iran in recent years, yet they have elicited little public condemnation from South Africa, despite Pretoria’s stated commitment to universal human rights.These choices have also generated internal political strain. Within South Africa’s Government of National Unity, foreign policy has become a source of friction, with the Democratic Alliance openly criticising engagement with Iran and the broader direction of international alignment. Although foreign affairs formally remain under ANC control, coalition politics have made disagreements more visible. Business groups, labour representatives, and civil-society organisations increasingly question whether current foreign policy decisions reflect South Africa’s economic interests or inherited ideological positions.None of this suggests that South Africa should abandon an independent foreign policy or subordinate itself to any global power bloc. Genuine non-alignment, however, requires balance, consistency, and a clear prioritisation of national interests. It also requires applying human-rights standards evenly, rather than selectively, and recognising that economic partnerships with democratic market economies remain essential for growth, job creation, and technological development..Read more:.South Africa said to prefer bilateral US trade deal over AGOA.South Africa stands at a strategic crossroads. Continued ambiguity risks eroding hard-won relationships with partners that have supported its development for decades, without delivering compensating economic benefits. A course correction does not require abandoning sovereignty or historical solidarity, but it does demand realism. The country’s prosperity depends on stable trade access, investor confidence, and constructive engagement with the global economy. The question is whether South Africa will act in time to preserve those foundations, or whether ideological drift will continue to impose costs that ordinary South Africans can least afford.

South Africa’s problematic foreign policy shift: Implications for democracy and prosperity

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