Survival or collapse? Why SA’s future hinges on Second-Order Thinking: Patrick McLaughlin

Key topics:.GNU faces internal battles over reform vs. revolutionary ideologyBusiness urged to back reformers or risk hostile economic policiesLooming sanctions, capital flight, and emigration threaten SA’s stability.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Patrick McLaughlin.South Africa has reached an inflection point. The ruling ANC, bruised by its worst electoral showing since 1994, now governs by coalition with parties that stand ideologically opposed to it. While much of the media spotlight remains fixed on daily political horse-trading, something far more consequential is at stake: the trajectory of South Africa's economic future.This is a moment that demands what strategist Clem Sunter once called "high road" thinking. But getting there now requires a deeper, more reflective approach than just reacting to headlines or placing faith in political reshuffling. What’s needed is second-order thinking: not just asking what happens next, but what happens after that.Beyond the Surface: From Election Results to Economic SurvivalSuperficially, the recent Government of National Unity (GNU) looks like a hopeful step. The ANC has partnered with the DA and other smaller parties, suggesting an appetite for pragmatism over populism. But under the surface, South Africa remains shackled to policies and ideologies that have long undermined growth: cadre deployment, a failing state machinery, race-based procurement, and the protection of entrenched interests.The immediate post-election period has revealed signs of tension within the GNU. While Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana has tried to steer the fiscal ship responsibly, President Ramaphosa faces pressure from within his own party and alliance partners to double down on failed redistributive programmes rather than pro-growth reforms.Second-Order View: What Happens If Reforms Stall?It’s easy to cheer the appointment of a moderate minister or the shelving of an unpopular bill. But second-order thinking asks: if deeper reform doesn’t follow, what comes next?If private investment continues to flee due to hostile legislation, what industries collapse next?If the tax base continues to shrink, how long can social grants be sustained?If skilled professionals emigrate in greater numbers, who will rebuild the state?These are not speculative risks. They're already happening. What remains is the speed and scale of the decline.The Real Divide: Not Left vs Right, but Realists vs IdealistsSecond-order thinking helps reveal a new political map. South Africa’s battle is no longer primarily between ANC and DA, or Left and Right, but between realists and idealists. On one side are those who understand that wealth must be created before it can be redistributed; on the other are those who still believe in central planning, state control, and slogans over spreadsheets.Some within the ANC and GNU understand this. They know that if real economic growth isn’t delivered within the next two years, international capital flight, potential sanctions, and domestic instability will worsen. But they are at war with a faction that sees the world through a revolutionary lens, not an economic one.The Looming Sanctions FactorHere is where geopolitics enters the picture. The U.S. Magnitsky Act and broader Western hostility to corrupt or anti-Western regimes raise the stakes. Certain ANC-linked individuals, including allies of the RET (Radical Economic Transformation) faction, may find themselves isolated or even sanctioned if South Africa continues drifting toward the BRICS authoritarian bloc or actively undermines Western-aligned institutions.That possibility introduces a layer of desperation. Some politicians now face a personal, existential threat if Western ties are strengthened. Their incentive is to sink the ship rather than let it be steered in a new direction.The Role of Business: Time to Choose SidesFor the business community, this is no longer a time for fence-sitting. Second-order thinking makes it clear: either you help empower the realists inside the GNU who grasp economic reality, or you risk being governed by those who believe business is the enemy.That means more than polite engagement. It means offering real support to reform-minded actors, from mentoring public officials to investing in reform-linked projects. It also means speaking plainly: we are either heading toward a South Africa that produces and exports more, or one that taxes and blames more.The Window Is NarrowThe 2024 election showed that voters are disillusioned but divided. The next two years are crucial. If the GNU fails to deliver real economic progress by 2026, populists waiting in the wings will not hesitate to exploit the moment.Already, ANC hardliners and EFF radicals are seeking to weaponise frustration over slow service delivery and continued inequality. Their solution will be more expropriation, more nationalism, and fewer freedoms. None of it will grow the economy.A New Coalition of Survivors?The real opportunity lies in creating an informal coalition of survivors: business leaders, civil society, reformist politicians across party lines, and the independent media. Together, they must champion policy ideas that are bold but realistic:Replace BEE with a needs-based empowerment frameworkShift from race quotas to merit and skills developmentDismantle dysfunctional SOEs and open key sectors to competitionReform education and vocational training with private-sector alignmentProtect judicial independence and fight corruption with transparency toolsNone of this will be quick or easy. But it is possible. And more importantly, it's necessary. Second-order thinking isn’t about dreaming. It's about survival.Conclusion: Start Thinking Like a SurvivorSouth Africa’s choice is no longer between good and bad policies. It's between reality and delusion.Second-order thinkers—those who ask what the consequences of our current actions will be in five or ten years—are needed now more than ever. The good news? Some are already inside government. The bad news? They are outnumbered.The time has come to find them, support them, and strengthen their hand. Not out of idealism, but out of necessity. Because the alternative isn’t another missed opportunity. It’s collapse..*Patrick McLaughlin is a parliamentary affairs analyst and publisher of ParlyReportSA.com. He writes regularly on legislative developments affecting South African business and economic governance.