Third force claims in the anti-immigrant protests: Conspiracy theory or calculated propaganda?

When cabinet ministers Mamoloko Kubayi and Ronald Lamola suggested Israel and allied states were behind South Africa's anti-immigrant protests, they revived a familiar tactic: deflection. Political scientist Kenneth Moeng Kgwadi traces a pattern stretching from Mbeki's economic policies to the 2008 xenophobic violence, the Zuma-era scandals and Ramaphosa's Phala Phala controversy - moments where the ANC escaped collective accountability by locating blame elsewhere. The protesters' grievances, he argues, are real: porous borders, corruption, unemployment and strained services. Dismissing them as foreign-orchestrated, without evidence, risks the government's credibility. Is this calculated propaganda, or a conspiracy theory its own architects believe?.By Kenneth Moeng Kgwadi*.The ANC has, at times, benefited from circumstances that have shielded it from being held fully accountable for poor governance. In 2007, many within the ANC and its alliance attributed rising poverty and inequality to former President Thabo Mbeki's liberal economic policies, effectively shifting responsibility from the governing party to an individual. A year later, in 2008, widespread xenophobic violence saw many South Africans blame foreign nationals for their economic hardships, allowing the ANC to evade accountability once again for the persistent poverty, unemployment, and inequality that had left millions living on the margins of society. In 2009, South Africans were assured that the ANC, under Jacob Zuma's leadership, would tackle the country's major economic challenges. That optimism proved short-lived as his presidency became synonymous with a series of corruption scandals, including the Nkandla saga, the Gupta family's state-capture project, and numerous other allegations of grand corruption. The establishment of the Commission of Inquiry into State Capture, chaired by retired Chief Justice Raymond Zondo, was presented as a decisive step towards accountability. However, many viewed it as another political exercise in damage control. Throughout this period, the ANC largely escaped collective accountability, while public attention focused almost exclusively on Zuma, as though he had acted independently rather than as the elected leader of the ANC government. When Cyril Ramaphosa assumed the ANC presidency in 2017, South Africans were once again promised a new era of ethical leadership, institutional renewal, and the fulfilment of the commitments the ANC had made in 1994. However, his reformist credentials were soon questioned when it emerged that his ANC presidential campaign had received substantial financial backing from wealthy business interests, some of whom were viewed as potential beneficiaries of state influence. Given South Africa's recent experience with the Gupta family's capture of state institutions, these revelations generated considerable public unease.Ramaphosa's presidency suffered a further blow with the emergence of the Phala Phala scandal, exposed by one of his political rivals who understood that the controversy would continue to shadow his presidency. Despite surviving several political and legal challenges, the scandal has remained a stain on his public image and is likely to define part of his political legacy. If history is any guide, the ANC may eventually seek to distance itself from Ramaphosa, portraying his failures as personal shortcomings rather than accepting institutional responsibility for the decisions made under its governance.In the year 2026, more than 32 years since the new political dispensation, the ANC does not want to be held accountable for its failure to transform the lives of the people. It was shocking to listen to two cabinet ministers who hail from the ANC blaming Israel for its internal, domestic challenges. The protesters are raising legitimate concerns about how they want to organise their communities. The claim brought forth by Mamoloko Kubayi and Ronald Lamola is that Israel and like-minded nations are behind the widespread protests due to the legal warfare against the State of Israel. It is nonsensical to dismiss the concerns raised by local communities, as many of them speak directly to the lived realities and hardships experienced by South Africans. They point to porous borders, corruption that facilitates irregular migration, and the inefficiency of state institutions responsible for managing immigration. They also raise concerns about the impact of immigration on employment opportunities, competition among small businesses, access to school placements for their children, and rising levels of crime, including drug and human trafficking. Collectively, these grievances reflect what many perceive as a growing vote of no confidence in the state's ability to exercise its authority, uphold the rule of law, and effectively manage the country's borders. This is not a new political narrative. We have seen Iranian authorities repeatedly blame Israel and the United States for nationwide protests that were largely driven by domestic grievances, including economic hardship, corruption, and human rights concerns. Despite these allegations, no publicly available evidence or intelligence has conclusively substantiated claims that foreign governments orchestrated those demonstrations.It is therefore troubling that South Africa's Cabinet ministers would make serious allegations against other countries without presenting credible, verifiable evidence to support their claims. Such assertions risk undermining the government's credibility and diplomatic standing. Either these allegations are part of a deliberate and calculated propaganda strategy designed to shift attention away from domestic failures, or they reflect conspiracy theories that those advancing them genuinely believe..*Kenneth Moeng Kgwadi is a political scientist, writer and researcher at Middle East Africa Research Institute (MEARI)..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Third force claims in the anti-immigrant protests: Conspiracy theory or calculated propaganda?

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