The October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel had far-reaching consequences, disrupting the US-backed India-Middle East Economic Corridor (IMEC) and reshaping regional dynamics. This audacious assault sought to refocus attention on Palestine but resulted in devastating losses for Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as weakening Iran’s influence. Israel’s decisive military response altered the Middle East landscape, bolstering its position and paving the way for IMEC’s eventual progress, with potential wider Arab recognition of Israel.
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By RW Johnson ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
The atrocious attack on Israeli civilians by Hamas on 7 October 2023 was in large part triggered by the growing unease felt by Israel’s opponents over the US-backed plans for IMEC – the India-Middle East Economic Corridor. Already many millions of Indian migrants play a critical role in the Gulf countries, that area’s trade with India has boomed, and India receives over $80 billion a year from remittances by Gulf-based Indians. But IMEC was due to expand that enormously, much to Israel’s advantage.
The idea behind IMEC is a “land-bridge” between the growing Indian economy and Europe via the Middle East. Already, thanks to petro-dollars from Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the Gulf has become a major banking centre and could play a major and increasing role in Indian economic development, just as Singapore does as the off-shore banking centre for China. The assumption was that Israel, with its highly developed economy and its leadership in hi-tech, could play a key role in that development – and that as a result it could become more integrated economically with its host area. Already, thanks to the Abraham Accords (which saw Israel recognised by Morocco, Sudan, the UAE and Bahrain) there has been a prodigious increase in trade, particularly between Israel and the UAE. But that would be nothing compared to the effect of such a recognition if the far larger Saudi economy were to follow suit.
To some extent IMEC is a Western answer to China’s Belt and Road policy. The central idea is to make land links for transport and communication so that the Suez Canal becomes less important to such traffic – for the sea route is notoriously vulnerable to attack and harassment, as recent events have shown yet again. India is, of course, the world’s most populous country and is also often its fastest growing economy. This year India is expected to overtake both Japan and Germany to become the third biggest economy in the world, so the IMEC project could become of huge significance.
Hamas and Hezbollah naturally followed news of negotiations over IMEC and were much disturbed by it, particularly the notion of Israel’s increasing acceptance within the Gulf which threatened to relegate the issue of Palestine to what Harold Macmillan would have termed “a little local difficulty”. Hamas, probably with the knowledge and support of its backer, Iran, decided to force the Palestine issue back to the top of the agenda by its attack on October 7, calculating that a further period of warfare would have a polarising effect on Arab opinion.
This has indeed occurred. The possibility of Saudi recognition of Israel was put into cold storage by the new state of warfare and the whole IMEC project has been held up. As we know, the forces of the so-called Axis of Resistance have had a large and world-wide propaganda success with mass demonstrations of pro-Palestine support in many European cities and on American university campuses. South Africa has been an enthusiastic participant in this process, hosting large pro-Palestine demonstrations and lending diplomatic support to Hamas and Hezbollah, together with its high-profile legal action against Israel at the International Court of Justice. There has been an increase in anti-Israel and antisemitic incidents more or less throughout the world.
This has, however, all been reaction on the periphery. The real action has been in the Middle East – and it has been transformative. Iran’s whole strategy of many years now lies in ruins. The Axis of Resistance has been shattered and there will be much quiet rejoicing in the world of Sunni Islam as a result, together with a more than sneaking regard for the Israeli Defence Force which alone had the strength and strategic sharpness to achieve such an outcome.
Hamas’s attack on Israel was not only suicidal in that the young militants who carried out the atrocities of October 7 were all quickly killed but well over half of the entire Hamas armed force has been wiped out, together with its key leaders. In addition, Hamas’s action has brought untold suffering to the civilian population of Gaza. As yet the future of Gaza is still unclear but it seems certain that Hamas will play little or no role in the future. Its day is over.
Hezbollah miscalculated similarly. It started its rocket attacks on Israel straight after October 7 and seemed not to realise that it would play a frightful price for this unprovoked aggression. When Israel was ready, however, it turned on Hezbollah and its actions showed that Mossad had thoroughly penetrated that movement. Quite apart from the spectacular damage done by Hezbollah’s booby-trapped communications equipment, the Israelis clearly knew exactly where to find Hezbollah’s top leadership and had worked out a strategy to decapitate it – even though it was hiding securely – it must have thought – many metres underground. At the same time the IDF drove Hezbollah out of its southern Lebanese redoubts, inflicting heavy losses, and destroyed a large part of the movement’s munitions. By the end Hezbollah was clearly desperately keen to reach a truce – even a one-sided one which left Israel free to launch further attacks whenever it felt Hezbollah had infringed the agreement.
On top of that Israel has inflicted heavy damage on Iran’s anti-aircraft defences and it has also seized further territory in the Golan Heights. Moreover, as we have now seen, the heavy damage inflicted on Hezbollah altered the balance of power in Syria, creating an opportunity for the Islamist rebels to overthrow Assad. The result is a yet further catastrophe for Iran: it has not only lost its protege, Assad, but the new Syrian regime is unlikely to be friendly to it. Moreover, it has completely lost the ability to ship arms through Syria to Hamas and Hezbollah.
The Israelis have not merely destroyed much of Assad’s weaponry – and his Navy – but they also made it clear that they will not tolerate the re-establishment of Iranian forces or proxies in Syria. Iran has bitterly claimed that the HTS guerrillas who have taken over Syria are really proxies for the Israelis and Americans. This is not only ludicrous but shows how badly Iran has been hurt.
The main question now is whether Israel, together with the incoming Trump administration, will attempt to destroy or cripple the regime in Iran. They clearly have the capability to do so and the Tehran regime is now weaker than at any time since 1979. The fall of the Assad regime is also a major blow to Russia and it is now possible that Russia will lose its air and naval bases in Syria.
The pro-Palestinian demonstrators who have ruled the streets in London, Boston and Cape Town now have to face the awkward fact that all their marching and protesting has been in vain. While they have been waving placards, Israel has re-shaped the Middle East, very much in its own favour, and the Axis of Resistance which the demonstrators have been cheering on, now barely exists. A separate Palestinian state seems further away than ever. Israel will not only emerge stronger than before but, almost certainly, IMEC will go ahead and gradually Israel is likely to gain recognition from more Arab states. It was very noticeable that while many voices in the Global South were criticising Israel, India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, spoke of his sympathy for Israel, saying India too had had to deal with Muslim jihadists.
South Africa has particular reason to wonder if it has been wise. The ANC government went out on a limb to befriend Hamas and Hezbollah and spent a fortune on taking its anti-Israel case to the ICJ. There is widespread suspicion that Pretoria’s costs were actually borne by Iran. If so, the truth may soon emerge. In the meantime South Africa has lost Hamas and Hezbollah as effective friends and their ally, Iran, is now gravely weakened. In addition the ANC government befriended Assad and protected his torturous regime at the UN, preventing an investigation into its human rights atrocities. None of that will now look good or make Pretoria any friends in Damascus. Finally, even Biden denounced South Africa’s ICJ case as “outrageous” but that will be nothing compared to what Trump is likely to feel. South Africa may still pay a heavy price for its grandstanding over the last two years.
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