RW Johnson: Crunch time for DA, big choice looms - Unless ANC changes, leave GNU or go down with it

Key topics:Unemployment rises sharply; ANC policies worsen economic growth and jobs.DA demands more economic ministries and urgent reforms in GNU or exit.Calls for DA leadership change and national conference to address crisis..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By RW Johnson.It is now almost a year since the GNU was formed. On entering the GNU, and repeatedly since, the DA has said that its only motivation is to increase the economic growth rate and bring down the rate of unemployment. It is now quite clear that this has not happened and, indeed, the situation continues to deteriorate at some speed. In the first quarter of 2025 the narrowly measured rate of unemployment rose by a whole one per cent to 32.9% and the more truthful expanded rate (including workers too discouraged to apply for jobs) rose to a horrific 43.1%. In that first quarter alone another 291,000 people lost their jobs, bringing the total number of unemployed to 8.4 million.In effect the ANC seems to have long ago given up hope of changing this situation. Year after year the plight of the jobless gets steadily worse and the ANC does nothing to change that. Ten years ago there were 5.2 million unemployed. In the succeeding decade the ANC has sat on its hands while another 3.2 million have joined the dole queue. President Ramaphosa says he is “worried” about unemployment and he told the Northern Cape conference of the ANC that “we are taking all steps and measures to grow our economy” and that “We need to unleash the levers of our economy and attend to the constraints and the impediments that are keeping our economic growth down”.But these are just words. In practice the ANC keeps bringing forward new legislation which is bound to hurt investment and worsen the situation. The Expropriation Act is an obvious case in point, but so is the proposed Equity Employment Amendment Act. Gwede Mantashe’s rules for investment in the oil and gas sector are so laden with BEE and other obligations that they are a sure fire investment-killer. If Ramaphosa was serious he would suspend or abolish BEE, base state procurement simply on quality and price, repeal the Expropriation Act, liberalise the labour laws, privatise the ports and so on. But he and the other ANC ministers are not serious at all about remedying unemployment.So the DA needs to take stock. If it simply continues as at present in the GNU it will inevitably be dragged down with the ANC and share national responsibility for economic stagnation and ever-increasing unemployment. So the party is at a crossroads. Ideally it should hold a national conference to discuss the situation. The party has to recognise that it was far too easily conned into the present disposition of the cabinet. It should have been far tougher in the negotiations for a GNU. At a bare minimum it should have had ten or eleven ministries and some of these should have been economic ministries. The complaint that the party only had two weeks in which to negotiate is absurd: if the negotiations needed longer, the heavens would not have fallen if they had ended up being more protracted. The DA should simply have refused to re-elect Ramaphosa as President until it had the right number and type of ministries and it also had a legally binding coalition document setting out priorities. In particular there had to be an economic plan.But it’s not too late. The DA needs to work out its own economic plan, concentrating on reforms which would really kick start growth and start reducing unemployment. It should not be shy of arguing for a major reversal of ANC policies where required. And it should seek the help of good economists to help cost its programme and work out its probable impact. Nor should it be shy of demanding a far greater urgency in carrying out reforms. Currently, Transnet has a reform process moving at a tortoise rate. This is ridiculous. Much tougher and faster decisions are required.When the DA has worked out its plans it should then approach Ramaphosa and explain that the party cannot remain in the GNU unless the President accepts (i) a really urgent and far-reaching effort to turn the economy around. In particular it will require the ANC to agree either to the whole DA plan for economic reform or a negotiated version of it and (ii) a stronger position for the DA within the GNU, including economic ministries. .Read more:.Isaac Mogotsi pt. 4: Inside the GNU built to save Ramaphosa, not South Africa .Ramaphosa must be warned that if the ANC cannot agree to this, the DA will have to resign from the GNU and take its case to the country, making it plain that the DA is quite determined to increase economic growth and reduce unemployment – but that the ANC simply doesn’t care about these objectives and has refused them. This would be an ideal basis on which to campaign for the local elections in 2026/7 and the national elections of 2029.----------The DA approach to Ramaphosa should be set out in a letter:Dear Mr PresidentThe latest unemployment figures make it plain that we cannot go on as we have before. In the GNU’s first year the DA has had to spend much of its time and energy running to the courts to halt ANC initiatives which chase away investment and prevent economic growth, the Expropriation Act and the proposed Equity Employment Amendment Act being cases in point. In addition the ANC is pushing for NHI, which would be economically ruinous, and has twice tried to raise taxation when South Africa is already over-taxed and more and more of our people are finding it hard to make ends meet. The opinion polls are emphatic that all these policies are unpopular with the electorate, including ANC voters. What people want, overwhelmingly, is higher economic growth and more jobs.In addition the ANC has adopted a foreign policy which has been greatly damaging to South Africa, alienating our best friends and major trading partners. The DA has warned time and again against the recklessness of these policies and the point has now been reached where the push-back from these policies has begun to do grave damage to our economy. So, once again, the poor will suffer from more lost jobs and higher unemployment. This is completely unacceptable and it has to stop. We have to have a foreign policy which puts South Africa’s national interests first.We cannot continue spending our efforts and energy on simply preventing the ANC from doing more damage to our economy. We joined the GNU because we hoped to be able to work for a much better and more prosperous South Africa, one with a much higher rate of growth and a far lower unemployment rate. We hoped that the DA and ANC could at least agree on doing the best things for South Africa and its people. But in effect the ANC is anti-growth and anti-investment – and this is why unemployment keeps increasing by leaps and bounds, bringing misery to millions of our people. Over the past decade the unemployment rate has steadily increased and the ANC has done nothing to reverse this. Frankly, ANC ministers seem quite comfortable with that. But we cannot accept such a situation.Accordingly, the DA has drawn up an economic plan of action aimed at kick-starting growth and creating many more jobs. We happily acknowledge, of course, that your Operation Vulindela has done some useful work, but it is far too slow, cautious and partial. We really need some major changes which will show the country how serious we are about trying to ameliorate the situation. To quote Andrew Donaldson, the former deputy-director of the National Treasury, “The country cannot afford presidential and other state-funded committees that do not seem to do anything. We’re in a crisis and we need action.”We should learn from the example of Franklin Roosevelt. Before Roosevelt American Presidents had simply preached the old verities of the free market and hard work and said it was no business of government to intervene. People felt abandoned in the face of the Depression. FDR would not accept that and set about changing things with great vigour. For the first time Americans felt they had a President who was really on their side and that is why FDR was so loved and is still seen as one of the greatest US Presidents. When he took office, unemployment in the USA was over 25%. When his death ended his presidency, America had full employment. In the same way we must convince South Africans that the government is really on their side. Just sitting and watching as unemployment climbs ever higher is no way to do that.In order to implement our growth strategy we need several things. First and foremost, we want the ANC to work with us for the good of the country, to discard policies which hinder growth, investment and jobs and instead join us in working flat-out to do what our people really want, grow the economy and create more jobs. That is by far the most important thing. Secondly, we must have the proper proportion of DA ministers in the cabinet. As you know, we are severely under-represented at the moment. That has to change - and in particular there have to be DA ministers in key economic ministries because we are the party most committed to higher growth and more jobs. For similar reasons we need at least one DA minister at DIRCO. We think these changes are essential if the GNU is not to go down as a terrible failure. We hope very much that you will agree.If, however, you cannot see your way to making these changes we will, with great regret, have to resign from the GNU. We will be happy to discuss this further with you provided that we can both agree that the situation is critical, that serious remedies are now urgent and that we must be united in putting the interests of our people before all party or other vested interests.----------Obviously, this would signal a dramatic change in the DA’s position. Either it would end up playing a far more significant role in government or it would have to take its case to the electorate with the greatest vigour. Whichever path it took at least it would not slouch its way to the next elections with a stagnant economy and ever-increasing unemployment, a recipe for political – and national – disaster. But the DA also needs to face the fact that it needs a change of leadership to take on this new situation.There is no need to rehearse the reasons for this. John Steenhuisen is the weakest leader the DA has had and there is no hiding the fact that many people in the party would like a change. Whatever his other merits, Steenhuisen is simply not the right person to be leading the DA as it heads into the extremely challenging era ahead. Some would argue that it is also high time to have a new party chairperson – Helen Zille took over as leader in 2007 and has now been in the front ranks for eighteen years, which is abnormal in a democracy. To be fair, Helen has given outstanding service and she has many virtues. She has been invaluable in the recent period. But she cannot go on forever. So a DA national conference – probably called early, given the urgency of the situation - also needs to elect a new leader and, preferably, to choose a new party chairperson who would take over from Helen Zille a year later.

RW Johnson: Crunch time for DA, big choice looms - Unless ANC changes, leave GNU or go down with it

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