Has South Africa overlooked one of its greatest strategic assets?

Instability in the Red Sea and Strait of Hormuz has pushed a growing share of world shipping around the Cape of Good Hope, with the World Bank estimating Cape rerouting rose more than 50 percent as Houthi attacks intensified. Analyst Joan Swart argues South Africa has failed to treat the Cape Sea Route as the strategic national asset it is, unlike Singapore, which built decades of investment around its geography. Ships rounding the Cape choose where to refuel, repair and restock, and Swart warns unreliable ports mean those opportunities are migrating to rivals such as Walvis Bay and Mauritius instead..By Dr Joan Swart*.Every time instability closes the Red Sea or threatens the Strait of Hormuz, shipping lines rediscover the Cape Sea Route. South Africa, however, appears to forget it just as quickly.For years, the country's debate about maritime infrastructure has centred on inefficient ports, Transnet's operational failures and logistics bottlenecks. These are undoubtedly important. Yet they overlook a more fundamental question: has South Africa ever recognised the Cape Sea Route as a strategic national asset?That question has become increasingly relevant as geopolitical instability transforms what was once regarded as an alternative shipping lane into an increasingly important component of global trade resilience.Around 80–90% of world merchandise trade by volume is transported by sea. Much of that trade passes through a small number of maritime chokepoints whose vulnerability has become increasingly apparent over the past five years. The Strait of Hormuz carries roughly one-fifth of global petroleum liquids and a similar proportion of liquefied natural gas exports. The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal, through which approximately 10–12% of global trade normally passes. Together they form one of the world's most strategically important maritime corridors. Research by the OECD, World Bank and others demonstrates how disruption to this corridor has reshaped global shipping patterns. When Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea intensified in late 2023 and continued through 2024 and 2025, many shipping companies chose to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope. The World Bank estimates that shipping around the Cape increased by more than 50% as traffic through the Suez Canal declined sharply. Shipping companies accepted significantly longer and more expensive voyages because they judged the additional cost to be preferable to the security risks and uncertainty associated with the Red Sea. Rerouting around the Cape typically adds around 10 to 14 days to a voyage and can increase operating costs by several million dollars once additional fuel, charter time, crew and insurance are taken into account. The significance of these diversions extends far beyond shipping companies. They demonstrate that global commerce now depends not only on efficient maritime routes, but also on credible alternatives when geopolitical crises disrupt them. The Cape Sea Route is one of those alternatives.Geography has therefore handed South Africa an extraordinary advantage. But geography alone does not create national power.Singapore offers a useful comparison. Its success rests not simply on location, but on decades of deliberate investment in ports, bunkering, repairs, logistics, finance, insurance and maritime services. It transformed geography into strategy.South Africa has not.Instead, the country often assumes that vessels sailing around the Cape will naturally generate economic benefits. They do not.Ships rounding the Cape make commercial decisions. They decide where to refuel, undertake repairs, exchange crews, replenish supplies, conduct maintenance and obtain maritime services. If South Africa's ports are inefficient or unreliable, those opportunities migrate elsewhere.That is why South Africa's principal competitors are not the Suez Canal or the Red Sea. They are other regional maritime hubs positioning themselves to capture value from diverted shipping.Walvis Bay has spent years investing in its logistics corridors and developing itself as a regional gateway into southern and central Africa. Mauritius continues expanding maritime services. These countries understand that the objective is not merely to watch ships pass by, but to persuade them to stop. This distinction lies at the heart of a broader strategic question.A strategic national asset is not simply an asset owned by the state. It is an asset whose value contributes directly to national security, economic resilience and international influence. The Cape Sea Route clearly meets that definition. Recognising it as such, however, should be more than a rhetorical exercise. It should form part of a coherent Strategic National Asset Assessment (SNAA) that evaluates how South Africa identifies, develops and protects assets fundamental to its long-term prosperity and security.Such an assessment would not be confined to maritime infrastructure. It should align the country's approach to strategic ports, digital infrastructure, energy systems, critical minerals and other nationally significant assets within a single strategic framework, ensuring that they are managed as components of a national strategy rather than as isolated transport, energy, digital or industrial sectors.This builds on the argument advanced in a previous article that South Africa requires a Strategic National Asset Assessment to guide investment in nationally significant infrastructure. Yet exploiting such an asset requires complementary capabilities.Efficient ports are only one component. South Africa also requires effective maritime security, search and rescue capability, hydrographic services, vessel traffic management, customs enforcement, intelligence coordination, ship repair facilities, bunkering infrastructure and an integrated maritime strategy linking government with the private sector. These supporting capabilities determine whether geography becomes a competitive advantage or merely an opportunity lost.They also create broader strategic responsibilities.One of the world's busiest maritime corridors inevitably attracts more than legitimate commerce. Illicit trafficking, sanctions evasion, illegal fishing, environmental risks and threats to undersea infrastructure all demand effective maritime governance. In an era of renewed great-power competition, control of maritime communications has again become an important element of national power. South Africa need not choose between competing geopolitical blocs to recognise this reality. It simply needs to define the Cape Sea Route according to its own national interests.The debate therefore extends well beyond transport policy.Every discussion about Transnet, port reform or maritime investment should begin with a more fundamental question: what role does South Africa intend the Cape Sea Route to play in its national strategy?If the answer is none, then continued underinvestment is entirely rational..Read more:.Cape to benefit as shipping lines cut Mideast routes.If, however, South Africa recognises that it occupies one of the world's most strategically significant maritime locations, then ports, maritime security and supporting infrastructure cease to be isolated budget items. They become investments in a strategic national asset whose importance is likely to grow as geopolitical uncertainty becomes a permanent feature of the global trading system.South Africa cannot influence instability in the Red Sea or the Strait of Hormuz. It can, however, decide whether geography remains an accident of history or becomes a deliberate instrument of national strategy..*Dr Joan Swart is a forensic psychologist and military analyst specialising in security studies, geopolitics and strategic affairs, with a particular focus on Africa. She is currently completing a PhD at the University of Stellenbosch Military Academy..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Has South Africa overlooked one of its greatest strategic assets?

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