Treasury launches Phase III of SA-TIED: Will ‘evidence-based’ policy finally trump political ideology?

Key topics: SA-TIED Phase III launched: Treasury, SARS and UNU-WIDER will run the donor-backed programme from 2026 to 2029.Evidence vs politics: The initiative promises data-driven policymaking, but South Africa’s reform record remains deeply patchy.Focus shifts to spending efficiency: With fiscal space shrinking, Phase III will test whether research actually drives structural reform.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..BizNews Reporter.On Wednesday, 25 March 2026, the National Treasury, flanked by international donors, announced the launch of the third phase of the SA-TIED (Southern Africa – Towards Inclusive Economic Development) programme. The initiative, set to run from 2026 to 2029, promises to ground South Africa’s economic policy decisions in rigorous, co-produced evidence.It sounds magnificent on paper. The project is a collaboration between the National Treasury, the South African Revenue Service (SARS), and the United Nations University World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU-WIDER). It is financially backed by the European Union and the United Kingdom’s Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office. The stated goal is to embed evidence directly within government systems to close the glaring gap between academic research and actual policy implementation.Speaking at the launch, Deputy Finance Minister Dr David Masondo boldly claimed that "good policy must be grounded in credible evidence" and that "better policy leads to better outcomes for our people". While Masondo's words ring true, long-suffering South African taxpayers and investors might be forgiven for a hollow laugh. For decades, mountains of empirical evidence have pointed to the disastrous economic consequences of failing state-owned enterprises, rigid labour laws, and bureaucratic red tape. Yet, political expediency has routinely overridden the data.To its credit, the SA-TIED programme has generated a formidable academic output. During its second phase, the partnership churned out over 130 research papers, with 65% authored or co-authored by South Africans and 63% featuring women. Furthermore, it provided training for more than 200 participants—half from within the government—in advanced economic modelling, spatial analysis, and data science. Research spanned six core areas, including enterprise development for job creation, public revenue mobilisation, macro-fiscal analysis, and the intersection of food, energy, and water in the context of climate change.Perhaps the most tangible success of Phase II has been the National Treasury Secure Data Facility (NTSDF), which links anonymised administrative tax data to provide researchers with a goldmine of economic insights. SARS Deputy Commissioner Johnstone Makhubu rightly noted that tax administration data serves as the "lifeblood of research and economic policy design". Over the past year, this facility has supported over 65 researchers.Now entering Phase III, the programme is pivoting toward an unavoidable reality: South Africa is running out of fiscal headroom. Treasury has explicitly stated that the new phase will focus heavily on "public expenditure efficiency". As the media statement notes, in a constrained fiscal environment, the burning question is no longer just how much the state spends, but how effectively it spends.The international funders driving this initiative were quick to warn against the dangers of populist politics. EU Deputy Ambassador Fulgencio Garrido Ruiz remarked that policy should be driven by where the evidence leads, "as opposed to being driven by short-termism and opportunism". Incoming UNU-WIDER Director Patricia Justino, who takes office on 1 May 2026, echoed this sentiment, warning that in uncertain times, "political pressure can crowd out careful thinking". British High Commissioner Antony Phillipson also emphasised that a targeted evidence base is vital to understand the "trade-offs inherent in any policy choice".The SA-TIED initiative provides world-class data and modelling. But as Phase III rolls out over the next three years, the ultimate test won't be the number of peer-reviewed papers published. The real question is whether Pretoria's politicians will actually find the political will to implement the structural reforms the data so desperately demands.

Treasury launches Phase III of SA-TIED: Will ‘evidence-based’ policy finally trump political ideology?

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