đź”’ Latest CRA polls: South Africa finds itself at an inflection point

From the Centre For Risk Analysis

Three decades on from 1994, South Africa finds itself at an inflection point; arguably, very well within that.


Politics – and the relationship between citizens and businesses and the state, is changing – in some ways perhaps radically and starkly so, in other ways only glacially. A new era in South Africa, with coalitions not just provincially, but also nationally. As the ANC’s support steadily erodes, questions arise about the long-term consequences of their declining popularity, and how they will seek to retain influence and power. Will positive change come sooner rather than later (not too late, never too late)… South Africa risks falling further behind other emerging market peers, while in the face of voter dissatisfaction and possible continued apathy, politicians strive to demonstrate action. Finally, the significance of local politics – forceful personalities and local power bases, as well as wheeling-and-dealing – and the dynamics between the ANC and EFF in Gauteng, compared to the national stage, cannot be ignored. A deepening and maturing democracy is both scary, but also, if this can be of comfort, exceedingly normal…

CRA Polling 2023 (October)

  • Not a prediction of the election result.
  • We surveyed a representative sample, have a historical track record of asking similar questions, and can cross-reference against other surveys.
  • Sample size is 604  
  • The standard deviation on a sample of 604 in a population of 60m is 3.99% (or 4%) at a 95% confidence level;
  • For our poll the design effect is 1.87%.
  • Polling done telephonically, questions asked in the language of the respondent’s choosing

Download the CRA polling results PowerPoint below

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