Coalition Country: Up to 141 SA municipalities could be ungovernable after November

This article was first published by The Common Sense.Two thirds of South Africa's municipalities, hung after November? That's the sobering arithmetic from a new Common Sense analysis. Seventy-three councils were already hung after 2021; another 68 scrapped majorities of just 50-60%. Do the maths on an ANC in freefall – down from 46% to 34% in recent polling – and you get somewhere between 108 and 141 councils without a governing party. That's not a footnote, it's a governance crisis. Speakers and mayors must be elected within 14 days of the vote, so coalition talks will be frantic, local, and – thanks to "overhang risk" – potentially reversible in court months later..From The Common Sense.A few weeks ago, The Common Sense conducted a broad analysis of municipal election trends and found that more than 100 of South Africa’s municipalities are likely to be hung (where no party wins more than 50% of the vote) after the November local government elections (LGE).The Common Sense research team has now dug deeper and identified municipalities that were hung after the last LGE as well as those where a party won the municipality outright but with between 50% and 60% of the vote.According to this analysis, 73 municipalities were hung after the last local government elections (contemporaneous reports at the time said 66 municipalities were hung but research by analysts at The Common Sense found that the number was 73). In total there are 213 local municipalities in the country.The number of municipalities where parties won between 50% and 60% of the vote after the last LGE was 68.So what does this mean for November?Let’s first assume that all the hung councils from 2021 remain so (73 municipalities).Then let us assume that half of the municipalities where a party won between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2021 become hung in 2026 (say around 35 municipalities).This means that at least 108 municipalities, of South Africa’s 213, will be hung after the November elections.To extrapolate further, if all of the 2021 50% to 60% municipalities are hung in 2026, then 141 of the 213 will be hung. That is nearly two-thirds of South Africa’s municipal councils.The chart below shows the number of hung municipalities in each province and the number of municipalities where the biggest party won between 50% and 60% of the vote in 2021..The provinces with the highest proportion of hung municipalities after 2021 were Gauteng, the Western Cape, and KwaZulu-Natal.The chart below shows the leading party in each hung municipality by province after the 2021 local government elections..The chart below shows the leading party in the municipalities where a party won between 50% and 60% of the vote by province in the 2021 elections..The African National Congress (ANC) is clearly the party most at risk of finding itself out of power in a significant number of municipalities after the next local government elections. After the last LGE it won more than 50% of the vote but under 60% in 56 municipalities. Recent polling by The Common Sense and the Social Research Foundation (SRF), conducted in July, had the ANC polling at 34% of the vote – it won 46% of the national vote in the 2021 LGE.For the sake of argument, let us therefore assume the ANC suffers a uniform loss of 11 points across municipalities all over the country – this will see it lose its majority status in more than 50 municipalities.Beware here of the concept of overhang risk, which The Common Sense covered here.There will be some municipalities where the ANC may lose its majority status but another party manages to win more than 50% of the vote. This is likely to happen in KwaZulu-Natal, in particular, where the uMkhonto weSizwe Party could replace the ANC as the majority party in many municipalities across that province, and potentially in some Mpumalanga councils too.The starkest implication of this broader analysis is that there will be more than 100 separate coalition negotiations across South Africa in various municipalities following the November vote..Read more:.ANC set to lose about 500 councillors in November local elections.Polling conducted by The Common Sense and the SRF in July showed that most South Africans would like the ANC and the DA to form coalitions in hung municipalities where the two parties together can form a majority.By law, municipalities in South Africa have to vote for a speaker and a mayor within 14 days of the election. This means that agreements have to be drawn up quickly and across South Africa, to secure governing coalitions. National overarching agreements between parties regarding potential municipal agreements may be the most sensible path.But beware again of the overhang risk, which means that even where those coalitions are successfully negotiated, the balance of power in municipalities may change months after the election, depending on the success of court actions brought to increase the number of proportional representation seats in various councils..This article was first published by The Common Sense and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Coalition Country: Up to 141 SA municipalities could be ungovernable after November

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