Latest SRF poll: DA leads Joburg and Tshwane, MK running away with eThekwini

This article was first published by The Common Sense.With the November local elections a few weeks away, the latest poll by the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense makes for sobering reading for the ANC. It leads nationally on 32%, but it trails the DA in Johannesburg and Tshwane. In eThekwini, it is a distant third, behind the MK Party on 43%. Nine in ten voters say South Africa is heading the wrong way. Yet 68% want the ANC and DA to govern together where neither party has a majority, and 78% want schools built by the best firm, whoever owns it. The pollsters stress that these numbers are a snapshot, not a forecast..From The Common Sense.This report provides a comprehensive overview of the latest polling data from the Social Research Foundation (SRF)* and The Common Sense, with a specific focus on the November 2026 local government elections. It includes the macro political position, data on the key metros, the favourability rankings of key politicians, whom voters want to succeed President Cyril Ramaphosa, public perceptions of March and March and AfriForum, public sentiment on whether communities are taking over the duties from the state, public perceptions of the Government of National Unity (GNU), support for the African National Congress (ANC) and the Democratic Alliance (DA) to continue their cooperation, views on the potential secession of KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, views on the recent White Cross memorial in Washington, DC, whether South Africa should align its foreign policy with the West or with countries such as Russia, China, and Iran, and views on how important black economic empowerment (BEE) considerations should be when it comes to government tenders and public procurement.The charts below present the latest findings and, where available, the changes across earlier surveys.Party Standings and the Approaching Municipal ElectionsThe National ContestThe chart below tracks the standing of the ANC, DA, Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), and the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) from the May 2024 election through successive surveys conducted after the formation of the Government of National Unity (GNU). In the latest reading, the ANC stands at 32%, the DA at 26%, the MKP at 12%, and the EFF at 8%..JohannesburgThe first of the metropolitan charts shows the evolution of party support in Johannesburg across three rounds of polling in 2026. The DA leads the field at 36% in October, followed by the ANC at 22%, the MKP at 11%, and ActionSA at 9%..TshwaneIn Tshwane, the DA also holds the lead, although its support has fallen from 45% in February and March to 32% in October. The ANC has declined from 42% to 26% over the same period, while ActionSA has risen from 5% to 12%..eThekwiniThe picture differs in eThekwini, where the MKP leads the October poll at 43%. The DA has 28%, with the ANC on 13%, while the Inkatha Freedom Party stands at 7%..The GNU and the National MoodLiving Standards Since the GNU was FormedThe following chart asks voters whether their personal circumstances or standard of living have improved, remained the same, or worsened since the GNU was formed. Across all voters, 23% report an improvement and 34% a deterioration. ANC voters are more likely than DA voters to report an improvement..The Direction of the CountryThe chart below follows perceptions of the country’s direction from 2022 to 2026. The most recent reading shows a sharp deterioration in sentiment, with approximately nine in ten voters saying South Africa is heading in the wrong direction..Assessments of the GNUThe next chart measures public assessments of the GNU since September 2024. Half of voters currently say the GNU is working well and 40% say it is working poorly, compared with 58% and 21%, respectively, in September 2024..The Case for an ANC and DA coalitionVoters were also asked whether the ANC and DA should govern together in municipalities or metros where neither has a majority and the two parties can form one. As the chart below shows, 68% of all voters agree, including 69% of black voters, 66% of white voters, and 62% of coloured voters. There was also strong agreement among ANC voters..Political Leadership and ANC SuccessionHow Political Leaders are ViewedThe chart below compares favourable and unfavourable views of 12 political figures. President Cyril Ramaphosa records a 34% favourable rating and 48% unfavourable rating, while Patrice Motsepe records 33% favourable and 24% unfavourable. The results also show the varying levels of public familiarity with each figure..Ramaphosa’s Changing StandingThe next chart tracks Cyril Ramaphosa’s favourability between 2022 and 2026. His latest favourable rating is 34%, against an unfavourable rating of 48%, reversing the more positive balance recorded at the beginning of the series..What Voters Expect if Ramaphosa Leaves OfficeThe chart below shows how voters think the country would fare if Ramaphosa were removed from office. Among all voters, 46% expect improvement, 26% expect deterioration, and 23% expect no change. ANC voters are more likely to expect the country to be worse off..The Contest to Succeed RamaphosaIn the race to succeed Ramaphosa as the next leader of the ANC, Patrice Motsepe is still the most popular option, with 35% of all voters favouring him. Fifteen percent of voters prefer Fikile Mbalula and 13% Paul Mashatile. The chart below shows how these preferences have shifted across the preceding polls..Communities and Local GovernmentCommunities Taking on Government ResponsibilitiesThe next set of charts turns to the delivery of local services. As the first shows, 85% of voters agree that communities are increasingly taking on responsibilities that the government has failed to fulfil, up from 80% in July. Agreement is high across racial and party lines..Whom Voters Trust to Deliver ServicesThe chart below asks whom voters trust more to maintain roads, supply water, collect refuse, and fulfil other municipal responsibilities. Across all voters, 49% choose private citizens and local businesses and 45% choose municipalities. The balance varies substantially between voter groups..Civil Society and Political CooperationViews of March and MarchThe chart below measures favourable and unfavourable attitudes towards March and March, the civic organisation focused on illegal immigration, across the electorate. Among all voters, 24% have a favourable view and 39% an unfavourable view. Ratings differ considerably across racial and party lines..Views of AfriForumThe corresponding results for AfriForum show 11% favourable and 41% unfavourable across all voters, with 46% unsure or unfamiliar. The chart below shows particularly pronounced differences between the views of white voters and those of other groups..AfriForum and March and March Working TogetherVoters were then asked whether closer cooperation between AfriForum and March and March was a good or bad idea. Overall, 61% regard it as a good idea and 28% as a bad idea. Majorities of voters in each of the groups shown take a favourable view of such cooperation..Attitudes to SecessionKwaZulu-Natal IndependenceThe chart below measures attitudes towards KwaZulu-Natal breaking away from South Africa to form an independent country. Across all voters, 62% oppose the idea and 34% support it. Within KwaZulu-Natal itself, support rises to 42%, while MKP voters are more closely divided, with 50% in favour and 46% opposed..Western Cape IndependenceThe same question was asked about the Western Cape. The chart below shows that 68% of all voters oppose independence and 27% support it. Among voters living in the Western Cape, 34% support the idea and 66% oppose it..Energy PolicySupport for Oil and Gas ExplorationTurning to domestic economic development, the chart below measures whether voters support South African companies exploring for oil and gas. In total, 88% support exploration, either fully or subject to careful regulation, while 11% oppose it..Oil and Gas as a Resource or Environmental ThreatThe next chart tests whether voters regard oil and gas principally as an economic resource or an environmental threat. Across all voters, 84% view it as a resource to some extent, compared with 14% who regard it as an environmental threat. That balance is broadly consistent across the groups shown..Black Economic Empowerment and Public ProcurementChoosing a Firm to Build a SchoolVoters were asked to choose between two firms tendering to build a school in their community. One is an experienced construction firm that is not BEE compliant and the other a new, black-owned BEE firm with limited experience. As the chart below shows, 50% of all voters prefer the experienced firm and 46% the new BEE firm. Black voters favour the BEE firm by 54% to 43%, while 70% of white voters and 73% of DA voters choose the experienced firm..The Priority When Building a SchoolThe next chart asks voters what matters most when that school is built. Across all voters, 78% want the best construction company chosen regardless of who owns it, while 21% would rather use the project to promote a black-owned firm. Large majorities in every group shown favour the best builder, including 73% of black voters and 73% of ANC voters..Foreign RelationsThe Washington Farm Murder MemorialVoters were asked about the placement of 3 000 crosses in Washington in memory of farmers murdered in South Africa. The chart below shows 35% support and 61% opposition across the electorate, alongside substantial differences in opinion between racial groups..The Effect of US Claims of White OppressionThe following chart records how US claims about the oppression of white South Africans affect voters’ willingness to support the US on the global stage. Overall, 79% say those claims make them less likely to support the US, compared with 15% who say they make them more likely..Preferred Foreign Policy AlignmentWhen asked whether the GNU should align South Africa’s foreign policy with the West or with Russia, China, and Iran, 47% select the latter group and 37% the West. The chart below reveals marked divisions by race and political affiliation..Perceptions of Chinese and US InvestmentThe final chart measures agreement with the proposition that China contributes more investment and jobs to South Africa than the US. Across all voters, 67% agree, and majorities agree in every racial and party group shown..MethodologyThe figures come from a Social Research Foundation market survey conducted in conjunction with The Common Sense and carried out by Victory Research using telephonic CATI interviews. A single-frame random digit dialling design was used, with respondents screened for voter registration and then interviewed, and the sample was further quota-controlled for key demographic characteristics of South Africa’s registered voter population. National SIM card penetration exceeds 250.0%, making telephonic interviewing a reliable method of reaching a representative sample of registered voters. The sample was fully weighted according to the demographic parameters of the registered voter population.The survey was conducted from 18 September to 12 October 2026 among 3 100 respondents.It must be stressed that the election polling numbers are not forecasts or predictions. They are snapshots in time and South African politics is particularly fluid at the moment..This article was first published by The Common Sense and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Latest SRF poll: DA leads Joburg and Tshwane, MK running away with eThekwini

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