Is Johannesburg slipping out of the ANC's hands for good?

Johannesburg's 4 November election could mark the ANC's steepest local decline since 1994. The party has yet to announce a mayoral candidate, is campaigning on the slogan "Fixing Local Government," an implicit admission of its own record, and faces a DA that has spent over a year building a "Believe in Joburg" campaign under Helen Zille. Winning an outright majority still requires the DA to lift its vote count sharply from 2024 levels, no small task, but the ANC's weakened position, patchy service delivery and internal disarray have put Johannesburg's governance up for grabs in a way it hasn't been in decades..This article was first published by The Common Sense.The Common Sense.This is according to polling conducted by The Common Sense, in conjunction with the Social Research Foundation (SRF).The polling was conducted between 8 and 31 July and polled just more than 500 people in Johannesburg. It had a margin of error of 4.4% and used a turnout model of 53%.Respondents were asked who they would vote for if a local government election was held that day.According to the poll, only 18% of likely voters said they would vote for the ANC. The Democratic Alliance (DA) had a big lead in the city, with the support of 42% of likely voters.The uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MKP) had the support of 13% of likely voters in the city, with 10% saying they would vote for ActionSA. The Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) had the support of 8% of likely voters.Support for the ANC has declined significantly since March 2026, when the SRF and The Common Sense last conducted a poll in Johannesburg.That poll found that the ANC had the support of 30% of likely voters, while the DA had the support of 39%. The MKP had the support of 8%, ActionSA the support of 10%, and the EFF the support of 4%..Read more:.MAILBOX: Why Cape Town voters deserve better from the DA.The chart below shows support for political parties in Johannesburg in the 2021 local government elections and in the SRF and The Common Sense’s previous two rounds of polling..The Common Sense deputy editor Marius Roodt said, “It’s important to stress that these numbers are not a forecast of the result, but rather a measure of the data at this point in time. However, whether Johannesburg faces a hung council after the November election results… At this stage if the numbers hold as they are, the city faces a series of conflicting coalition possibilities. The ANC, EFF, and MKP could form a government, so could the DA and the ANC, and so too the DA and ActionSA.”.This article was first published by The Common Sense and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Is Johannesburg slipping out of the ANC's hands for good?

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