Amazon Leo will beat Starlink within a year, says Herotel CEO

Herotel CEO Van Zyl Botha is betting big on Amazon Leo, the satellite broadband service launching in South Africa via Herotel from 2027. His claim that Amazon will match or beat Starlink's speeds within a year is bold given Amazon has fewer than 400 satellites in orbit against Starlink's 10,800, and its rocket partners are struggling to keep pace. We break down whether the numbers back up the optimism..By Hanno Labuschagne.Herotel chief executive officer Van Zyl Botha believes that satellite broadband service Amazon Leo, formerly called Project Kuiper, will offer better speeds than Starlink within a year.Herotel recently announced it had secured a distribution deal to resell the service in South Africa, beginning in 2027.In an interview with RSG Geldsake on Wednesday, Botha was asked about the fact that Amazon Leo’s low-earth orbit satellite constellation was much smaller than Starlink’s.Amazon currently has fewer than 400 production satellites in orbit, compared with around 10,800 Starlink satellites.While the lower operating altitude of low-Earth orbit (LEO) systems enables higher speeds, greater bandwidth, and lower latency, full coverage requires thousands of satellites in operation.Botha said that Amazon’s ability to deliver a wide range of services to numerous customers around the world suggested it could achieve this.“They must, of course, launch many rockets. I think every one of them takes between 36 and 40 satellites,” Botha said.“As I understand, there are already 100 launches that they have booked, and that will take them to between 3,600 and 4,000 satellites.”Botha said that would enable Amazon Leo to provide global coverage with the same speed, “if not better,” as its competitors.“So within a year, Amazon will catch up with its competition and then in the next two to three years, they will reach the same type of numbers.”Herotel is advertising two Amazon Leo products on its early registration page for the service: Nano with speeds up to 100Mbps, and Pro with speeds up to 300Mbps.Some sector experts might find Botha’s faith in Amazon Leo’s unproven capabilities questionable, especially given the realities of its fleet size and growth rate.Firstly, Amazon is only targeting 3,236 satellites in its initial constellation. It only plans to expand beyond that in 2029.The service is not yet commercially operational anywhere in the world and will need at least 578 satellites in orbit to launch its initial service.It is expected to go live first in the US and Europe later in 2026, based on the first latitudes at which it can provide a reliable service.Rockets are hard.Since launching in the second half of 2023, Amazon has deployed 394 production satellites in orbit, 300 of which have been launched since it began full-scale operations in April 2025.Amazon Leo’s initial licence with the Federal Communications Commission required Amazon Leo to have 1,618 satellites by 30 July 2026.The company has requested an extension of that deadline, as it is far behind schedule due to delays in developing two of the four rockets that will carry Amazon Leo’s satellites into space.The first is Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket. Blue Origin is the rocket company founded and owned by Amazon founder and executive chairman, Jeff Bezos.One of the New Glenn test rockets suffered a catastrophic explosion on 28 May 2026 that not only destroyed the vehicle but also caused substantial damage to its launch pad.Even before the setback, New Glenn had only completed two proper test flights and had yet to successfully deploy a payload in the correct orbit.The other problematic vehicle is United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan Centaur, which has been grounded after repeated rocket booster anomalies.Regardless of the delays in these two vehicles’ development, Amazon planned to launch satellites on only 20 rockets in 2026 and 30 in 2027.Only four of 2026’s launches have occurred, and less than half a year remains for the other 16. Unless Amazon drastically increases third-party launches, it will not meet its target of 20 launches.If Amazon put at least 36 satellites on each of the remaining launches, its constellation would number 970 satellites by the end of 2026.If it manages the planned 30 launches in 2027 and all of these are successful, it would have another 720 satellites in orbit, taking its total to 1,690.Starlink’s launches not slowing down.The target date for its full initial constellation of 3,236 satellites is 30 July 2029. In its second phase expansion, it plans to add another 4,500 satellites by February 2035.Therefore, in nine years’ time, Amazon plans to have 7,727 satellites in orbit, 4,000 fewer than Starlink currently has.It is also optimistic to assume that Amazon will be able to put 36 satellites on each launch. Only one of its launch partners — Arianespace — can currently do this.SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket can only carry 24 Leo satellites into orbit at a time, while United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V551 can transport 27 per launch.Meanwhile, SpaceX will likely have expanded the Starlink constellation by that point. In 2025, it launched a rocket every two to three days and put over 3,000 new Starlink satellites into orbit.The company’s launch frequency has increased in the first half of 2026, with 1,589 satellites launched up to the end of June.Even if it maintained its 3,000-satellite annual deployment rate, it would have another 27,000 satellites in orbit by early 2035, bringing the total to nearly 38,000.That is assuming the FCC approves Starlink’s expansion beyond its current allowance to its planned maximum fleet size of 42,000 satellites — over five times larger than what Amazon is targeting.It should also be noted that SpaceX’s next-generation rocket — Starship — will have the capability to transport 50 to 60 Starlink satellites per launch.SpaceX plans to deploy Starlink satellites into orbit for the first time during Starlink’s 13th Starship test launch, scheduled for Thursday, 23 July 2026.Lower demand could be the answer.Another major factor to consider is that Amazon Leo’s satellites will orbit at a higher altitude range than Starlink’s. While that will enable each satellite to cover a wider area, it will result in higher latency.However, Botha’s forecast about Leo’s performance could turn out to be accurate based on the fact that it could have lower tenancy and much more available capacity due to being late to the market..Read more:.FT: Amazon blasts off - Kuiper takes aim at Starlink in space race.Simply put, there may be more Amazon Leo satellites available per user on the service than on Starlink, which has amassed over 10 million subscribers.Considering SpaceX’s significant advantage in launch and operating cost efficiency, it is also hard to imagine that Amazon Leo will be more affordable, or at least not by very much.While Herotel must still confirm pricing, Botha has hinted that consumers should expect this to be close to existing products in its portfolio with similar capabilities.Herotel’s closest comparable product in terms of speeds is its 120Mbps FTTH package, priced at R799 per month.Starlink’s entry-level uncapped plans are priced under R500 in most Southern African countries where it is available..This article was first published by MyBroadband and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Amazon Leo will beat Starlink within a year, says Herotel CEO

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