With five days to go before the local government elections, Prince Mashele told Alec Hogg what a good night and a catastrophe would look like for the ANC, and why he expected neither. He was blunt about Herman Mashaba, whose biography he wrote, and set out the offer he believed could tip ActionSA towards the ANC rather than the DA in Johannesburg. He dismissed Gayton McKenzie's kingmaker ambitions, said he was worried about what an MK win would mean for KwaZulu-Natal, and explained why South Africans stay loyal to parties the way they stay loyal to soccer clubs. Then he turned to his own plans: a movement due to launch in Soweto in March, with a leadership line-up he said would not shy away from talking about race..Listen here.Edited transcript of the interview.Alec Hogg (00:01): Well, if you were to judge by the number of views that our political experts get, Prince Mashele would be number one for the BizNews tribe. They love his insights, not least from the conference. And I'm delighted that Prince will be with us at the Hermanus event in March next year. But he's with us right now. With five days to go to the big election, Prince, what would a good night look like for the ANC?Prince Mashele (00:34): It would be 35% nationally. If they were to hit 35% nationally, that would be a good outcome. Look, the brand ANC is very damaged. In fact, if you listen to public discourse, whether television, radio or social media, it would be hard to find someone these days who is willing to defend the ANC publicly. Just do a search, you will see.Even ANC leaders themselves are now ashamed of defending their own party. But with regard to the elections, here is what is shocking. The residents of these big metros and small municipalities actually don't know who their mayoral candidate from the ANC is. So I am sitting in Tshwane. I have no idea who the mayoral candidate of the ANC in Tshwane is.Those who are sitting in Johannesburg have no idea. It's as if the ANC says, vote for these colours, even if you get a dud after the elections, that's fine. So I expect the ANC to do very badly. If they were to get 35% nationally, I'll be surprised.Alec Hogg (01:53): I'm amazed at what you've just said. Have they not nominated a candidate for either of those metros? Prince Mashele (01:59): No, there isn't. No, they haven't announced. Believe it or not. So we know from the DA it is Helen Zille. We know from ActionSA it is Herman Mashaba. We know from Rise Mzansi who it is. We have no idea who the mayoral candidate of the ANC in Johannesburg is. They have not announced. And I'm talking...Alec Hogg (02:06): Wow.Prince Mashele (02:29): ...a few days, five days before the elections.Alec Hogg (02:34): That's actually extraordinary. So what would a catastrophe for the ANC look like?Prince Mashele (02:41): It would be in the upper 20s. So 27%, anything between 25% and 30%. That would be a catastrophe. I don't think they will get there. I think they will be in the lower 30s. They cannot hope to touch 40%, never.Alec Hogg (03:09): But that's really interesting, Prince, because if they don't even have a candidate, people are still turning up, still believing in the party. A lot less than at the last local election, and indeed a lot less than at the last national election, but they'll still be turning up. Why is that so?Prince Mashele (03:30): Look, South Africans, the way we vote, we are so attached to our political parties. We treat them the same way we treat the soccer teams, Kaizer Chiefs, Pirates. Once a supporter of Kaizer Chiefs, even when it performs badly, you don't leave. That's a South African culture. Even when it comes to politics, that's how we vote generally.So the ANC has its own diehards who will vote for it no matter what. But you can see that the support base is dwindling, and the ANC is dying. So it's our political culture. We find it very difficult to support another party.It's a function of the fact that our democracy actually is very young. Thirty years, 32 years of democracy in history, it's actually very young.Alec Hogg (04:35): And the man whose biography you wrote, Herman Mashaba, and his ActionSA, while we're talking about Gauteng, how are you seeing the outcome of this election for them?Prince Mashele (04:49): Look, this is not going to be a good result for them. All the polls that I have seen suggest that they will actually get less than what they got in the previous local government elections in 2021. Remember, previously in Johannesburg, they got 16%. The polls suggest that this time around they will get around 10%. That's not good.And Johannesburg is ActionSA's stronghold. That's where they perform the best compared to the rest of the country. In Tshwane, they got 8%. It appears to me that in Tshwane, their mayor there, Nasiphi Moya, is actually liked. And I would argue that she has actually done a relatively better job in stabilising that municipality. So I expect them to perform better in Tshwane and to perform badly in Johannesburg. So they will sit around 10%.But they are going to be an important factor when the coalition governments are negotiated. All the polls suggest that the DA is not going to touch 40% in Johannesburg, for example. So in Johannesburg, I think the DA will sit around 33%, 34%, 35%.If that is the case, and in Johannesburg the ANC is projected to be in the lower 20s, 22%, 23%, you would need parties like ActionSA to be part of your government if you want to be mayor, if you are Helen Zille, for example. And when I look at the numbers in Johannesburg, if the DA were to get 35%, without ActionSA the DA cannot constitute a government there in Johannesburg.The DA convinces ActionSA or it goes with the ANC. So the coalition negotiations that are going to happen are going to be very difficult. So ActionSA is sliding back, to answer your question. It's not growing. I don't expect them to grow.Alec Hogg (07:01): Now, you know Herman better than pretty much anybody else in your line of work. When I interviewed him a week or so ago, he said the polls are rubbish. He said he's been doing a lot of work, knocking on doors. The whole reason he didn't go to central government, to Parliament, was so that he could perform well in this election. Is he telling us something that the polls aren't telling us, or is this just the way that he would view the world?Prince Mashele (07:35): He does not understand polls. Let me put it bluntly. Look, in my book, he doesn't understand two things. He doesn't understand polls. He also doesn't understand politics. And by the way, I make this observation in my book, that he is politically ignorant. And the interesting thing about him is he actually does admit that he has limited knowledge and understanding of politics. So it's not only me who says that. He himself knows that.But here is the thing. I have been following elections for many, many moons in South Africa. The polls in South Africa generally do get it right. You've got two types of polls. You have polls that are conducted by parties themselves, and those polls generally tend to exaggerate what that party is going to get. But you also, on the other hand, have polls that are commissioned independently by media houses. And they use companies like Ipsos, for example, which has been doing polling in South Africa for many years. And the Social Research Foundation: if you look at their polls, they are very reliable. There is always a margin of error in terms of methodology. But generally, polls in South Africa, at least those that are conducted independently, are reliable.So Herman does not want to accept the message that the polls are telling him. But it doesn't depend on whether he accepts it or not. Political reality is political reality. As I said, I think that ActionSA is going to perform badly compared to the previous elections.And there are reasons for it, and I can explain to you why. When Herman formed ActionSA, this is what he told South Africans. He said he was forming ActionSA to bring down the ANC because the ANC is a corrupt party. Essentially, that's what he said. And South Africans agreed with him. Public sentiment at that time was on his side: yes, the ANC is corrupt.Prince Mashele (09:56): Yes, the ANC must be removed from government. And when ActionSA participated in the local government elections, he actually did well. I mean, first election, they got 16% in Johannesburg. That is actually good. And then, fast forward, look at what happens in Tshwane. He dribbles his own supporters because he wanted to punish the DA, and he goes into partnership with the ANC.And then his supporters say, hang on a minute. This is the man, this is the party that told us their reason to exist is to remove the ANC. And now they are in bed with the very same ANC. So he actually created a trust deficit himself. That's why his voters no longer trust what he says.Alec Hogg (10:47): Mm.Prince Mashele (10:52): That's what has happened.Alec Hogg (10:56): He also said to me that he would work with the DA in both Tshwane and Johannesburg, but not if Helen Zille and Cilliers Brink were involved. That sounds a little strange because they are the mayoral candidates. Do you think there would be any chance of that happening, that the DA would say, no Zille, no Brink, we want to get the mayoral chain, we'll work with Mashaba?Prince Mashele (11:26): Well, ActionSA, and Herman Mashaba specifically, have two choices after these elections, after next week. Option number one is to form coalition governments with the DA. And if they do so, they will have to accept the mayoral candidate of the DA. Remember, the DA can't say, we are willing to work with ActionSA if Herman Mashaba is not involved. That would be unreasonable. Parties have a right to choose their own mayoral candidates. So if they are willing to talk to the DA, they will have to stomach Helen Zille. And if the DA is willing to talk to ActionSA, Helen Zille will have to stomach Herman Mashaba. That is political reality.Option number two. If they don't want to stomach the DA and Helen Zille as a package, and you can't separate that package, they will have to go with the ANC. In my view, going with the ANC would be very dangerous for ActionSA. Because if the polls are correct, the ANC in Johannesburg sits in the lower 20s.That would be a clear message from voters that they no longer want the ANC in government. So any party that is going to partner with the ANC to bring the ANC back into government will actually be seen by voters to be undermining the will of the voters. So that party is going to go down into the grave with the ANC. And that's a huge risk that parties like ActionSA will have to factor in when they consider who they're talking to after the elections.In normal democracies anyway, you know, Alec, the biggest party is actually given the first option to form a government. But of course, South Africa is an abnormal democracy. Anything can happen. But look, Herman will have to be realistic. Helen also will have to be realistic. They will have to grow upPrince Mashele (13:46): and become mature and just understand that what is at stake here is bigger than their personal dislike of each other.Alec Hogg (13:59): You know him well. Can he do that?Prince Mashele (14:04): He is a very strong-willed personality. And you are right, I know him well. He knows I know him. He has given me the privilege of spending many hours with him in his private spaces. He's a very strong-willed personality. He's the kind of guy who, once he says "I will not do this", generally doesn't make a U-turn. And he has a formidable ego.But as I said earlier, he does not understand politics. Politics is like golf. You know, I play golf. It's a very humbling game. You may approach a golf ball and think, I'm going to hit it right, and it just goes the other way. And you have to accept it. There's nothing you can do about it. Politics is like that.So, ego or no ego, strong personality or no strong personality... And by the way, Helen Zille is the other side of Herman. Helen Zille is also a very strong-willed personality with a big ego too. So I think both of them will have to humble themselves. The advantage that Helen has is that she's been in politics for a long time. So she does understand politics, and I think she can humble herself. My sense is that Herman will have to humble himself. If he doesn't, I can tell you there will be serious consequences for his party. It will be the end of his party if he goes with the ANC, especially if voters have spoken loudly.Alec Hogg (15:47): He's put a lot of money into the ActionSA project. Do you think he will allow his business sense to prevail? Again, you know the guy.Prince Mashele (16:01): Look, firstly, these negotiations are going to be extremely difficult. Let's just put that on the table. And both choices for ActionSA, and Herman in particular, will be difficult. The ANC as a choice: extremely difficult. The DA as a choice, with Helen: extremely difficult.So he's caught between a rock and a hard place. If I were to make a prediction, and it's very, very difficult, and I'm making a prediction based on my knowledge of him: if the ANC were to give ActionSA a good offer, something like, you maintain the mayoralty of Tshwane, and we also give you the mayoralty of Ekurhuleni, you give us Johannesburg, my sense is that Herman would go with the ANC if the ANC were to give him that option.But if the ANC were to say, we are giving you Tshwane only, give us Johannesburg, you are not involved in Ekurhuleni because your showing there is not significant, I think he would go with the DA. So it will depend on the offer that either of the two, the ANC or the DA, will give to ActionSA.He's a businessman, you are right. How do businessmen think? You are a businessman yourself, you know. You look at benefits and say, what am I going to get out of this? So I think that's how he's going to approach it and say, what will ActionSA get out of this? So the party that is going to give ActionSA the better deal, I think he will go with that.I'm not very worried about his dislike of Helen. I think he can get past that. In any case, here is the thing: Herman will never be an MMC. Even if Helen is the mayor in Johannesburg, Herman would never humble himself and become an MMC in Johannesburg. He will send his minions.Prince Mashele (18:20): So there is a way of bypassing his hatred of Helen. Helen can remain mayor in Johannesburg, and he sends a few of his minions. So he can save face. I mean, he has money. He doesn't need a salary that comes from the municipality.Alec Hogg (18:38): Yeah, and he's never taken a salary, as he tells us, from ActionSA. Let's move to the east, to eThekwini. It was an interesting conversation that I had with Gayton McKenzie, who said he can't wait to get two or three percent to help MK get the mayor's position there if they're just short. It's a strange approach given that he would be quite instrumental in the Western Cape as well, with potential coalitions on that side. What do you make of Gayton McKenzie's role in these coalition negotiations, which are certain to occur after the 4th of November?Prince Mashele (19:21): Look, Gayton McKenzie, his record we know: he is a convicted criminal. You can't trust a convicted criminal. I would never trust a convicted criminal. And he behaves like one. He is an unreliable interlocutor. You never know what you're going to get from him.His position towards MK is actually very interesting and complicated, in the sense that in the government of national unity he is supporter number one of Cyril Ramaphosa. And Cyril Ramaphosa is the enemy of Jacob Zuma and the MK Party. So for him to say he can't wait to support MK, he's essentially sending a message to the person he supports, President Cyril Ramaphosa, to say, I am not wholly with you. You can't trust me. So there's no relationship of trust between the two of them.But I think he's actually overblowing his influence. My prediction is that in the Western Cape, the DA won't need to negotiate with anyone. The DA will actually get a relatively solid majority. The DA will cross the 50% mark. Mark my words. It's next week. I think they will get 52%, 54% in that space. So in that case, they will not need Gayton McKenzie. So he's going to have to eat humble pie.In eThekwini, Gayton McKenzie is very weak. He has no history of getting something significant there. So I actually don't see him as a player in the negotiations there. The players in eThekwini will be the IFP, the NFP and other smaller parties. Not Gayton, but including ActionSA, by the way. ActionSA, I think, will be ahead of Gayton McKenzie. In the previous elections, ActionSA got more. So I think when it comes to the two metros, eThekwini and Cape Town, Gayton McKenzie is overblowing his influence. He's not going to be influential.Alec Hogg (21:35): So where is he likely to do well? In the rural areas of the Western Cape?Prince Mashele (21:40): Yeah, in the rural areas of the Western Cape. But that's not going to be significant enough to give him clout. If he can't influence the constitution of government in Cape Town, his influence won't be significant in smaller municipalities in the Western Cape. Because if you look at the strategic significance of those smaller municipalities vis-à-vis Cape Town, that is almost nothing.So yes, in the rural towns of the Western Cape, he will do relatively well. Even in places like Knysna, he's going to get a bit here and there. So that's where he's going to have some influence, but certainly not in the big metros.Alec Hogg (22:29): We are still waiting to hear more about your movement. Because although you're an analyst and you've given us your analysis of the local government elections, this time in five years' time it's possible, or probable, that you're going to be a player. You're going to be on the other side of the field. How is your movement progressing?Prince Mashele (22:53): How I wish I could remain an analyst forever. I enjoy my job, Alec. The problem is that it is very painful as a citizen to see my country going down, and at some point you say, no, let me do something. But that is where we are.We are announcing the launch of the Rescue South Africa Movement, and it will be announced as a movement in March next year. We have identified a date. I won't announce the date now, but it's mid-March next year. The date is fixed. We have assembled a team at a national level. We call it the National Volunteers Team, of about 16 people. These are top engineers, top lawyers, top accountants, highly trained, with experience. They've never been in politics. They're from across the country. I am humbled.We have teams that are now working in preparation for the launch: a team on marketing and communication, a team on organisational development, a team on finance, a team on processes and systems. So we are ready.The announcement, as I said, is going to be made in March, and it's going to be in Soweto. And here is the other thing: the excitement on the part of South Africans. We are humbled. There is a wave in South Africa of business associations and civic associations in small towns that have said to themselves, we are sick and tired, we want to save our own towns. They have come together and have approached us and said, what you are trying to do at a national level, which is Rescue South Africa, is what we are trying to do at a local level. We are part of you.So even before we launch, there's already a movement of all of these associations across South Africa, including churches, by the way. We have churches across South Africa who are saying,Prince Mashele (25:16): the message of moral regeneration, of rebuilding our country, we support it. So, to cut a long story short, we are working hard. We will make the big announcement next year in March. It will be in Soweto.Alec Hogg (25:32): So what's the difference between your movement and Mashaba, who you know very well?Prince Mashele (25:40): Look, firstly, the collective leadership that we are going to present, Herman Mashaba didn't have. Secondly, we are very deliberate in saying the leadership of this movement has to be the best of blacks, the best of whites, the best of Indians, the best of coloureds. And even the way we have selected them and put together this leadership group, it reflects South Africa, because we want to inspire the rest of the country. ActionSA, that's not how they put together their project. So we are fundamentally different in that sense.Lastly, and in the same spirit, the leader of the movement, whom we have already identified who will soon be announced, is a black person. The deputy of the movement, quite deliberately, is a white South African. And these two are strong personalities. We are quite clear about it. And we say, if South Africans get to a stage where they say, transform this movement into a political party to contest the 2029 elections, the leader will be black, the president of the country. The deputy president of the country will be white. We don't apologise for it. We are not scared to talk race. That is a difference, because we want to build a movement of all South Africans.And South Africa is a country of all of these races, and we want to inspire all of our people.Alec Hogg (27:15): Are you the leader of the movement?Prince Mashele (27:17): No, no, no, I said I won't announce. I have not been permitted. I have been appointed the spokesperson of the movement. So the team said, Prince, go ahead, speak for us. Tell the public that we will be launching. Don't tell the public yet who the leader is, who the deputy leader is, who occupies what. But just tell them what we stand for. We have published our 10-point plan. That's what we stand for.So I am not in a position to announce who the leader is now. Unfortunately, that announcement will be made on the day in March.Alec Hogg (27:53): And the stuff that goes around on social media, we do know that there's a lot of nonsense there, but one of them was that you asked Rob Hersov for two billion rand, you want to print 40,000 T-shirts and so on. Do you pay attention to any of this? Prince Mashele (28:14): No, I don't. Look, if there's one guy who has been insulted and called all sorts of things the most, it is me. I have a thick skin. I'm not even on social media, by the way. So these people who are saying stuff on social media are actually wasting their time, because I don't see this stuff. I'm not on social media, so I have no idea what is happening there. If I wanted to spend my time looking at what people are saying about me or about Rob, I would not even have time to work.So I am focusing on what is important, and the big project I'm focusing on now is the project to rescue our country. Our country is in big trouble. It needs to be rescued. Of course, there will always be critics. Let them proceed. Maybe that's their job. So good luck to them. I have never asked Rob for two billion. I mean, Rob knows I've never...Alec Hogg (29:17): What would be the best result for this new movement in the local government elections?Prince Mashele (29:27): The best result for this movement would be to see the civic associations that are contesting elections, the Bela-Bela alliance in Bela-Bela, and so on, gaining seats in those councils, because they would be gaining experience on behalf of the movement.When we have launched, we will need that experience. So when we contest local government elections after 2029, we would need that experience, because you do need experience in governing. So for us, that would be the first.The second would be for the ANC to lose badly. We are very clear: our country has been destroyed by the ANC. We want the ANC out of government. So if the ANC were to be in the 20s nationally, we would celebrate. If the DA were to win cities like Johannesburg, for example, because the DA has not collapsed Johannesburg, we would be happy if Helen were to be mayor of Johannesburg. So our project is to remove the ANC, replace it with proper leaders who represent all South Africans, and rebuild the collapsed cities, the collapsed infrastructure.So we'll be happy to see the ANC out of power.Alec Hogg (30:58): Before I let you go, there were a couple of questions from our community members when we said we would be having this conversation. Rob Mitchell asks about eThekwini and Pietermaritzburg, where he says it looks like MK will prevail, and asked what the implications are for the province of that kind of scenario.Prince Mashele (31:22): I agree, by the way, with his opinion that MK will prevail. Every poll suggests that MK will be the biggest party in eThekwini and in KZN in general. In fact, in eThekwini, it is projected to be in the mid to upper 40s. There are others that are saying late 30s, but generally I take the mid-40s, because that's where MK is sitting from the previous national and provincial elections.So what would be the implications? Those people are looters. We know what they do when they have power. Remember, Zuma was president of the country. What did he do? He looted and destroyed our country. So what will they do? They will loot eThekwini. They will loot Pietermaritzburg. They will collapse those cities even further. They're already in bad shape.But ironically, it would be good for them to do so, because then the voters of KwaZulu-Natal will wake up and see what MK stands for. MK cannot build anything. They have no history of building anything. Show me what Zuma has built. Zuma, all he knows is to destroy. And I think they will destroy KwaZulu-Natal. I'm very worried about that.Alec Hogg (32:50): A BizNews Tribe Member asks, why is a party with leadership that has committed treason even allowed to participate in any form of governmental election? And the party she's referring to is MK, and all that's come out of the Zondo Commission.Prince Mashele (33:07): Well, our Constitution allows even convicted criminals, after a period of time, to participate in elections. Unfortunately, that's the Constitution. So unless the Constitution is amended to exclude them, they will participate. We live in a constitutional democracy. Ultimately, it's for the voters to choose.Alec Hogg (33:35): Prince, when you wake up on the 5th of November, what would be a bad election result for you?Prince Mashele (33:44): It would be if the ANC has bargaining power in the big metros: in Tshwane, in Johannesburg, in Nelson Mandela Bay, Buffalo City, Mangaung, in those big cities. If the ANC sits above 37% in those metros, it would be a bad result. But I can bet my last penny, and I don't have money, they will not sit in that position. I know it. The trend is that the ANC is going down. So in other words, on the 5th I will be a happy man, because the ANC is going to be out.Alec Hogg (34:28): Prince Mashele, political analyst. I'm Alec Hogg with your Business Edge..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.