Listen here.John Endres, CEO of the Institute for Race Relations, tells BizNews that the elite consensus defending BEE is cracking, even as its beneficiaries defend it loudest. He points to the Starlink saga - blocked partly over empowerment shareholding while a pricier, slower rival wins state favour - as proof the policy is running out of road. Endres also unpacks why so many of South Africa's estimated one million skilled emigrants stay away, and delivers an unexpected verdict: he's more optimistic about South Africa's prospects than Britain's, arguing the UK has traded freedom for safety and lost its economic nerve in the process..Read the full transcript below.INTROAlec Hogg Good day. Welcome to BizNews Edge. I'm Alec Hogg. It's Monday, the 13th of July. On today's show: what a wide-ranging conversation with John Endres, chief executive of the Institute for Race Relations. We talk about whether the growth message is finally landing in Pretoria — what it will take to get economic growth going in this country — why BEE remains the fault line that nobody in power wants to touch, and, a little more unexpectedly, why he's more bullish on South Africa, despite all our issues, than on the UK. That's coming up.STORY 1 — Strategic petroleum reserveAlec Hogg First, the stories shaping today's agenda. On Friday, government gazetted its draft policy on rebuilding South Africa's strategic petroleum stockpile — a tacit admission that we've had nothing worth speaking of since it was quietly sold off at the bottom of the market a decade ago. [CUT: repeated framing] That's exactly why I'd urge some healthy scepticism before we cheer this along. Regular BizNews viewers will remember our 2016 investigation, "Oilgate," which showed how insiders engineered the sale of what was then a 10-million-barrel reserve — built up during the apartheid era — and sold it at the worst possible time, below market price. Not only was the timing bad, they got a discount on the worst price possible. We asked then, and we ask now: why was it sold at all, and who benefited? Our sources — offshore oil traders — put the theft at well over a billion rand. So before Pretoria hands the keys to a new state entity, the SFF, to rebuild the reserve, taxpayers deserve answers on where the money went, and cast-iron guarantees that another Oilgate won't happen again.STORY 2 — Migration and repatriationAlec Hogg Staying with government: the migration story, and for once a rare good-news update from Pretoria. At a two-hour-plus press conference yesterday, the Inter-Ministerial Committee revealed that more than 53,000 foreign nationals have been repatriated, most of them Malawians who voluntarily decided to go home. The heavy lifting is happening at a new processing centre in Musina, put together in days on state land. What struck me: taxpayers haven't had to foot the bill for feeding those going home. MTN, Gift of the Givers, and a coalition of NGOs and faith groups have picked up that tab — proof that when government, civil society and business pull together, things get done.STORY 3 — AME / SENSAlec Hogg (04:00.76) To the Stock Exchange News Service for our third story. Keep an eye on African Media Entertainment. A SENS report this morning shows a low-profile investment vehicle, Trucha Limited, has quietly crossed the 10% ownership threshold, lifting its stake from just under 8% by buying in the open market. AME operates radio stations — old-school, old-style. You'll know Kaya FM, OFM in Bloemfontein, and Algoa FM in the Eastern Cape — its crown jewels. It's cash-flush, still generative even if the audience is maybe declining, and effectively controlled by Caxton co-founder Terry Moolman as part of his stable. It's a classic illiquid small-cap; barely a share changed hands today despite the announcement. Sitting on a solid operating profit, having just paid a chunky final dividend, and — by our numbers — trading at roughly a 15% discount to intrinsic value, it's exactly the kind of appeal that would draw patient capital, and clearly what Trucha saw in it. [CUT: speculative aside on Trucha's identity]INTERVIEW LEAD-INAlec Hogg Now to today's main event. John Endres runs the Institute for Race Relations, South Africa's longest-standing and most prestigious think tank. They've long crossed swords with government — under apartheid, and that adversarial relationship has carried through to the ANC government and now the GNU. But that's what you want from a think tank: people who do the research and speak plainly. Endres does exactly that, following in the footsteps of his predecessor, Dr Frans Cronjé, known for the same no-nonsense, no-spin approach. Endres will also be speaking at the BizNews Conference, BNC#9, in August — and we're nearly at capacity, so get your tickets soon.We sat down to talk about whether the growth message — what actually creates economic growth for South Africa — is landing in Pretoria; why BEE remains so fiercely defended even though everyone knows it isn't helping the country (in fact it's hurting us — one percent growth for fifteen years is the one constant, unless you're in denial); and what it would take to bring the diaspora home. We've got skilled South Africans sitting in capitals around the world, paying tax and helping grow those economies, who could make a far bigger difference here. And the most surprising part of the conversation: how South Africa stacks up, in Endres's view, against the UK — which has one of the largest diaspora communities of South Africans anywhere. [CUT: unverified anecdote about shipping containers] If you listen to what Endres has to say about the future trajectories of both countries, you'll understand why.John Endres interviewAlec Hogg It's such an interesting time South Africa is going through. One of the other areas you've been looking at, at the IRR, is whether we can get those roughly one million skilled South Africans who've left the country to come back. You brought out a report on that — tell us about it — but I'd also love your sense from face-to-face conversations with South Africans abroad, and whether we can hold out hope of reversing the trend. I think the last numbers you gave us were seventy percent preferring to emigrate versus only thirty percent coming back.John Endres So what we're doing now is launching a diaspora survey, asking South Africans abroad about their reasons for leaving, and the factors that might bring them back. My sense from conversations is that the emotional ties that bind people who've left to South Africa, and might persuade them to return, weaken substantially over time. If you've been overseas a year or two, and you get a job offer, or you've still got friends and networks here, it's easier to come back. But the longer you've been away — ten or twenty years — you may have married someone from that country, raised your family there, built networks of friends and business contacts. You'll have less and less reason to want to return.But there's another aspect: these are trade-off decisions, and South Africa could convince its own people to return if it plays its cards right. Speaking to people in the UK, I think that country is facing a great deal of difficulty at the moment. If South Africa develops a sense of dynamism, optimism and forward momentum — which the UK currently lacks — it would be an attractive destination for expats to return to. So the argument stays the same: we've got to fix our own situation, and then we'll be able to persuade our countrymen to return and bring their skills, capital, know-how and international networks back to help make this country more successful.Alec Hogg I hope you're right. But any South African in Britain right now, looking at South Africa House having to be disposed of, would say the optics are in the wrong place entirely. But John, you've outlined very rationally, very logically, very unemotionally, what the issues are — and none of this is news.John Endres Yeah, exactly. That's the wrong signal.Alec Hogg This is stuff we've known in this country forever. Are you getting a sense that decision-makers are starting to consider the consequences of some pretty poor decisions in the past, and looking to something better in future?John Endres Maybe, Alec — that's the tough question. I do get the impression that a lot of our public campaigning on raising the growth rate is starting to show an effect. We're seeing calls for economic growth to be prioritised increasing in public debate, and we think that's a very positive sign. But the seriousness of those calls isn't equal across all political parties. I think it's more strongly embraced by the DA, which recognises the importance of raising growth, than by the ANC, which pays lip service to the notion but isn't really thinking hard about the tough decisions growth requires. So this remains part of our communication strategy: explaining why South Africa needs growth — it's the ultimate thing that needs to happen for the country to come right — and explaining what it takes to get there. That involves hard calls on BEE, on property rights, on accountability for crime and corruption. Not easy, but necessary. There's a growing awareness that fixing infrastructure alone isn't enough — more needs to happen, and we'll keep pushing for that, hoping more political parties embrace the urgent priority of economic growth.Alec Hogg Has the elite consensus on BEE — you said there was a little crack there — widened? I ask because events of the past couple of weeks tell us that those benefiting from it certainly aren't going to give up without a fight. Paul Mashatile jets off to Dubai and picks a contract for a satellite internet option that's a very poor relative to Starlink — and imposes it on the country. Starlink is kept out, and the differential is stark: the option that's in is much more expensive and much slower than Starlink, but it has 25 to 28% BEE ownership, whereas Starlink has none. So BEE looks like a huge deciding factor — when is the penny going to drop, either among those who seriously want economic growth, or among the jobless who could join those dots?John Endres I think there's currently a strong defence of BEE going on — often it's the recipients of its largesse who are most vocal in supporting it. But at the same time, I think the defensiveness with which it's discussed reflects a weakening of its proponents' position. The issue now is to keep pushing, widening that breach, and continuing to point out that — contrary to President Ramaphosa's assertions — economic growth is in fact incompatible with the presence of these very extensive regulatory requirements around race in hiring and procurement.Alec Hogg (27:40.16) It seems to change so often. Just to sum up, John — when you came back from your travels abroad, what did you bring back from all those conversations? What's the nutshell?John Endres I found it really interesting looking at the UK, because it seems to me it's a once-proud, great nation that's fallen on hard times, largely by its own doing. My sense is that a big reason is that the UK has lost its mojo — if you think of the Austin Powers movies — it's lacking the animal spirits to get itself right. It's become timid and shy about fixing its problems. I think the underlying cause is that it's embraced the primacy of safety over freedom: government promises to keep people safe in many ways — through laws, through redistributing resources, through restrictions. The British people have come to accept that: online safety laws, speech-restricting laws, laws regulating how businesses operate, the net-zero approach to energy policy. As a result, Britain is getting poorer and weaker. In a way, I think it's going to be harder for Britain to come right than South Africa. We face very severe problems, but the animal spirits are in fine fettle here — the willingness and interest to get the country right is there, and we don't have to change as many things as the UK does. So, in a weird way, I'm more optimistic, more bullish on South Africa currently than on the UK. It gives me no pleasure to say that — I want the UK to do well too — but I think they're stuck in a very deep hole, and it's going to be very hard for them to get out.Alec Hogg And the US?John Endres The US is interesting, because an extremely disruptive leader like Donald Trump is able to break through established ways of doing things and unleash economic potential that becomes available when you create the freedom for it to operate. That comes with upsides and downsides — it's risky, it doesn't always work out the way you want, but it produces movement. If you look at the dynamism of the United States compared to the UK or the EU, it's incredible — look at the whole AI build-out, the resources marshalled, the money being deployed at breakneck speed, almost without regard for consequences. Europe simply cannot do that. It creates a lot of trouble, it's dangerous — who knows what will happen with AI, which companies will win, how much of this investment is misallocated — but they go ahead and do it because the competition is strong enough and the freedom is sufficient. I think they'll reap the benefits. If I play out GDP growth for the US versus Europe and the UK, the US is on track to outpace them by miles in the next few years, and it's hard to see a way back for Europe and the UK.Alec Hogg So as a South African, you should be hoping we can repair the relationship with the US, even if we might not like the guy running it at the moment.John Endres Yeah, exactly. I think we should find a kinship with the United States — identify with that love of freedom, of innovation, of trying things, of being bold, which the US expresses so clearly. Another thing we have in common is being a multiracial, diverse society, much like the US. If you set the right institutional framework, the right conditions, the right policy mix, having a diverse, multifaceted population is a huge asset to any nation, and South Africa has that. Ordinary people in South Africa get along quite well with each other, broadly true of the US too. That's an asset we should use, and we must keep fighting against those who wish to divide us along group, racial or ethnic lines. A lot more can be gained by working together than by fighting each other.Alec Hogg What a wonderful, uplifting way to end this discussion. John Endres is the chief executive of the Institute for Race Relations. He'll be at BNC#9 in August, sharing his insights — and by then we'll have a lot more, because he's one of those guys who just keeps learning every day. And isn't that the best way to live? I'm Alec Hogg from BizNews.OUTROAlec Hogg That's your BizNews Edge for today. To recap: government wants to rebuild a strategic oil reserve after a billion rand of taxpayers' money went missing when the last reserve was sold off in 2016. Maybe they think we've forgotten. Not at BizNews — definitely not. Oilgate Two will just be a matter of time if this goes unquestioned. We do have a government of national unity now, so perhaps the DA will start asking the right questions of the ANC — but before anyone lets this proceed, let's find out where that billion rand went. Name and shame. Also: 53,000 foreign nationals have been repatriated — depending on your view, you'll either welcome that or see it as a problem, since many were productive people — but they were efficiently processed, fed by the private sector and NGOs, no strain on the public purse. And a quiet institutional buyer has just crossed the 10% threshold in African Media Entertainment — an old media company that's still full of cash and paying good dividends, worth watching. And from John Endres, a genuinely hopeful thought: fix our own house here in South Africa, and our people will come home and turbocharge this economy. It's on the cusp — so many good things could be happening here. Let's hope Endres's words are heeded where they need to be. Thank you for joining me today. For more on all these stories, go to BizNews.com or BizNews TV. I'm Alec Hogg. Until next time — tomorrow. Cheerio.