Donwald Pressly’s municipal crystal ball – snatching back the Rainbow Nation

In the world of markets, forecasting is a bit like selecting your dart of choice and throwing at the board. It’s always been a game of luck, which has made some famous. But the fallout was further realised when Goldman Sachs cut five of their six market plays for 2016 within two months. And with increased volatility the game is only getting tougher. The same can be said for politics. In this piece Donwald Pressly gazes into his crystal ball, looking ahead to the local municipal elections. He points to some major reshuffling and political gameplay, as majority’s are won and lost. But it’s what Pressly says is needed so that South Africa can snatch back the dream of a rainbow nation. Some may say wishful thinking, others ‘rather the devil you know’ and then there are those that just sit on the fence. You decide. – Stuart Lowman

By Donwald Pressly*

Editor Donwald Pressly
Cape Messenger Editor Donwald Pressly

It is such fun to imagine a leap in time. Let us jump to August. Let us pretend we have just held the local government election nationwide on Wednesday August 10. The DA is hyper-excited because together with other minority parties, they have won a majority – together with the UDM – in the Nelson Mandela Bay municipality.

There is a cliff-hanger result in Johannesburg, the next big prize. The ANC has fallen short of 50%, gaining just 49%. The DA has 40%, the EFF 6 percent and other smaller parties the remaining 5%. There is a lot of lobbying going on with Herman Mashaba, the DA mayoral candidate, hopeful that a multi-party coalition will sweep him into office. Incumbent mayor Parks Tau has, however, fought a mighty battle to retain the post.

In Pretoria (Tshwane municipality), the ANC just holds on to power, with 50.2% of the vote. So the ANC’s mayoral candidate Sputla Ramokgopa looks likely to be sworn in again. But with a wafer thin majority a coalition city administration may be the answer to achieving political stability.

In  Cape Town, where the DA has ruled since 2006, it surged about 10 percentage points to over 70%. Patricia de Lille wins her second mayoral term of five years with an overwhelming majority. Outside of Cape Town, the DA finds itself in the difficult position of having to forge alliances. But the latest political talk is that the ANC and DA believe they have more in common than other political parties. The DA and ANC are having particular difficulty working with Julius Malema’s EFF, which has won a slew of municipalities in North West and Limpopo provinces. It is, however, an irritation to the mainline parties in the Northern Cape and parts of the Western Cape too.

EFF an irritation to the major parties

In the metropolitan areas and the other provinces, the EFF is less of a factor, but is, nevertheless, the pivotal party in Johannesburg. Nationally the EFF has raised its share of the vote from about 6 percent in 2014 (the national election) to 8 percent. As a new party on the block it has suffered from shortage of funding and organisational strength, but nevertheless has improved its showing. This is a positive for the EFF as other opposition parties which have sprung up since democracy – like the UDM and Cope – have not fared well in their second electoral contests. The DA has grown to 26 percent, four percentage points more than it got in the 2014 national election. It falls short of its target of 30%, however, indicating some resistance to it by black voters although it raised its black support base.

Read also: Analysis: By-election trends suggest DA to govern Joburg, Tshwane in 2016

The UDM of General Bantu Holomisa is the pivotal party in many Eastern Cape municipalities, including Nelson Mandela Bay. As the UDM has worked together with the DA in Cape Town previously, working in a coalition with the DA is most likely.  DA mayoral candidate in Nelson Mandela Bay, Athol Trollip, looks set to replace Danny Jordaan.

Nationally the ANC has done badly, although it still got just over 52 percent, on average, of the vote in all 257 municipalities (the number has been cut from 278 municipalities). This poor performance has further dented the image of President Jacob Zuma, who is still clinging to power. The lobby to have him removed has grown exponentially and there is even talk now that the ANC, DA, Inkatha – which increased its vote in KwaZulu Natal substantially – will form a national unity government. It is not certain yet whether it will still be led by Zuma. After the June ratings agency downgrade to junk status, a groundswell movement led by big business has persuaded party leaders across the spectrum to band together for the sake of the economy and fiscal prudence.

Heady period in SA politics

Only the EFF appears to be reluctant to join a national coalition, although it is willing to work with parties at local government level as long as they sign pledges to support delivery objectives set by the EFF.

So this will be a heady period in SA politics. It looks set to trigger a national cabinet reshuffle bringing in Mmusi Maimane, the DA leader, as minister of foreign affairs. Inkatha leader Mangosuthu Buthelezi looks set to return to Home Affairs. Tim Harris, the former DA finance spokesman and now Wesgro CEO, may be brought back to parliament to take up the post of deputy finance minister under Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan. General Bantu Holomisa, the UDM leader, looks set to be named Defence Minister.

So in the crystal ball, things will be looking up in South Africa. As a consequence of the opposition surge in the municipal poll, a national unity government is poised to return. There is now a chance of snatching back the rainbow nation dream.

  • Donwald Pressly is Editor of Cape Messenger, an online site focused on Western Cape business-related news. He has corresponded from parliament for 23 years. He is also secretary general of the Cape Town Press Club.
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