Daniel Silke: Raising red flags – the state remains vulnerable

As the dust settles over the ANC’s national executive committee, political analyst Daniel Silke sinks his teeth into the language and tone of secretary general Gwede Mantashe’s closing statement. And while Silke says Mantashe walked a deft tightrope, he feels there is still a lot on the table that suggests the state is still vulnerable. Mantashe managed to keep the peace and not embarrass President Zuma but indications suggest the pendulum of power hasn’t swung back into his court. And as Silke puts it, there’s still the rub of the rest of the year, obstacles government still needs to address. The local government elections, the increasing number of ‘Gupta Rebels’ and his biggest concern, Public Protector Thuli Madonsela stepping down in October. Madonsela’s replacement will be watched with keen eyes, as certain nominees may suggest an outside influence. – Stuart Lowman

By Daniel Silke*

It was no surprise that President Zuma presidency survived the ANC National General Council this last weekend. The NEC is still indebted to the President and largely survives on his coat tails.

More significantly, the ANC is about to embark on its most competitive local government election ever and it desperately needed to present a relatively united front to fire up its somewhat punch-drunk alliance partners and party workers.

South Africa's President and ANC party president Jacob Zuma reacts as he attends the party's National Executive Committee (NEC) three-day meeting in Pretoria, March 18, 2016. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko
South Africa’s President and ANC party president Jacob Zuma reacts as he attends the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC) three-day meeting in Pretoria, March 18, 2016. REUTERS/Siphiwe Sibeko

But the language and tone of Secretary General Gwede Mantashe’s post NEC statement and press conference perhaps told another story. There was enough rhetoric from Mantashe to suggest that the issue of the Guptas and ‘state capture’ had hit a very raw nerve at least with significant elements of the 100-strong body.

Although expressing its full support for Jacob Zuma, this was hardly a ringing endorsement. It was terse and within the context of Mantashe calling into question the role of the Guptas and their proxy media outlets, The New Age and ANN7. In other words, there was just sufficient public disdain in Mantashe’s demeanour to both severely admonish the Guptas and also (obliquely) point a finger at anyone deemed close to the Guptas (even President Zuma).

You didn’t have to embarrass Jacob Zuma in the process – and Mantashe succeeded in a deft tightrope walk of providing a veneer of political unity yet clearly indicating his displeasure with the current state of affairs. Mantashe even went as far as to commend Deputy Finance Minister on ‘doing the honourable thing’ by coming forward with the revelations about the Gupta involvement in offering Ministerial positions.

Read also: ANC Top Six perfect end game. Zuma gets stay of execution, not exoneration.

The NEC outcome therefore indicates that President Zuma did not have it all his own way. Remember, Zuma’s wings had already been clipped in the unedifying Nhlanhla Nene debacle when Pravin Gordhan ousted his choice, Des Van Rooyen.

There was therefore little indication from Mantashe that the pendulum of power had moved back to the President. Even the call by the NEC to take the ‘state capture’ allegations further by instituting an internal investigation indicates the matter has rocked the higher echelons of the party.

While clearly, the ANC wished to take control of the damaging public discourse by moving it internally, Mantashe is clearly putting the Guptas (and perhaps others) on a red alert.

In particular, the role played by The New Age and ANN7 in presenting a picture of deep division in the NEC will have touched a raw nerve. The Gupta-owned media outlets – once thought to be broadly ANC supporting – were clearly used over the weekend to support a faction of the governing party and in so doing, may have deliberately sewed divisions or exacerbated existing ones.

While state-capture is one thing, manipulating the discourse to expose fissures might in retrospect be more of a disaster for the Guptas than anything else.

Read also: Maynard: Just Zuma or ANC policies bad for SA economy? Presidents compared.

Mantashe did succeed in efficiently covering all the basis, keeping Zuma in place and also creating a space for the ANC to begin the defence of its local government metros and councils.

But – and here’s the rub for the rest of the year. While the NEC has diffused the current crisis of governance for now, there are any number of coming events that raise red flags in assessing the impact on the state.

Clearly, the increasing number of ‘Gupta Rebels’ will themselves create tension should they hold onto their positions. Reformers and status-quo conservatives simply will clash and future cabinet reshuffles will be a litmus test as to whether President Zuma can still mould positions of power to his liking or if he is effectively now a lame duck.

In addition, the country still needs to survive what is likely to be a very bruising local government election. The gloves will be off and Opposition parties will be delighted that the Guptas provide electoral manna from heaven.

But, recent times have seen the efficiency (and even independence) of the IEC questioned. The continued scrupulous transparency of the IEC is critical and will need to be watched even more carefully in an atmosphere of more competitive elections. Already there are hints of possible state capture of independent organs of the state (SARS/IEC) and this goes well beyond the business dealings of crony capitalism.

As if this is not enough, another event to flag is the looming October end-of-term of Public Protector Thuli Madonsela. Her replacement will be yet another sign of a variant of state capture as her successor may play an even more important role in adjudicating the remaining years in office of President Zuma. Again, any drift towards a political appointee may signal fresh battles ahead.

Read also: ANC on knife edge – many support Zuma despite damning allegations. For now.

And finally, while the NEC neatly concluded its deliberations on Sunday night, the country still faces even more political intrigue and potential destabilization.

The most dangerous time politically for South Africa is when reformers threaten the status quo and their vested interests. Already we have seen a trend towards dirty tricks viz Gordhan and the Hawks. For both politicians and the broader civil society, this is also a time of high risk. A drift towards more sinister politics will constitute a distinct danger to our democracy.

Beyond the Guptas a variety of fundamental tests await our democracy. Vigilance on all these issues will be vital. But expect a messy period in which battles between the various factions rage on all fronts. South Africa’s democracy is really being tested – and in ways our founding fathers never really predicted – or perhaps they did with a Constitution that will need extra ring-fencing in future.

*Daniel Silke is director of the Political Futures Consultancy and is a noted keynote speaker and commentator. Views expressed are his own. Follow him on Twitter at @DanielSilke or visit his website http://www.danielsilke.com.

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