Hartford: Electoral Court’s Zuma ruling fuels uncertainty as MK influence expands

As the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC) grapples with the ramifications of its decision to refer the Electoral Court's judgment allowing Jacob Zuma's participation in the upcoming elections to the Constitutional Court, South Africa finds itself on edge. The spectre of the MK (formerly Umkhonto we Sizwe) looms large, with its leader Zuma at the helm, a figure both beloved and feared. Memories of the 2021 unrest still fresh, questions abound about MK's sudden prominence and its potential impact on the political landscape. With Zuma's enigmatic smile masking underlying intentions, the nation braces for a turbulent electoral season..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..By Dirk Hartford.Let's hope the IEC doesn't rue its decision to refer the Electoral Court's judgement allowing MK's eligibility in the coming elections to the Constitutional Court. For when it comes to MK, and its leader Jacob Zuma in particular, anything can happen. .___STEADY_PAYWALL___.It's almost three years since Zuma's imprisonment for contempt of the same Constitutional Court sparked Riots in KZN, the worst violence SA has experienced in 30 years of democracy..A reported 354 people died in the civil unrest which engulfed KZN and parts of Gauteng in an orgy of mass rioting and looting, causing an estimated R50 billion in damage..Despite 5,500 arrests during the unrest, only 64 people have been charged for their role in instigating the uprising. The vast majority of these are unrepentant, proud MK members..Once the Electoral Court adjudicated that Zuma was allowed on the ballot paper, the die was cast for the IEC. It's hard to see how the Constitutional Court can undo this in the current circumstances without risking unleashing forces bent on destabilising the elections themselves..Even without the Constitutional Court decision, MK is already calling for the head of IEC commissioner Janet Love (a close comrade of Zuma's from the underground days) who had, in its opinion, the audacity to say publicly that he shouldn't be allowed to participate..As things currently stand, the alchemic processes swirling around in the electoral pot are hard to decipher and predict precisely because of MK's presence..What is MK actually, and why does it seem to be gaining such resonance in the SA political landscape as a four-month-old start-up? And what role does the Zuma factor play in this new MK phenomenon ?.One could also ask these questions of the July 2021 KZN/Gauteng uprising: Who organised it, and what role, if any, did Zuma play?.We can safely assume that MK and Zuma's role as its leader have been in gestation for some time. According to Zuma, it was prepared underground, possibly for up to four years..His key allies would be comrades from the RET faction of the ANC, with whom he has worked for decades, both underground and in power. This will include people highly trained in intelligence and warfare — the kind of people who knew to turn off the alarm systems and water sprinklers before they torched factories and shopping centres in the 2021 uprisings..There were many examples of this level of sophistication behind the scenes of the uprisings. Logistical networks were closed entirely down – in the container docks at Richards Bay and Durban, on the N2 and N3 highways, on the railing linking Joburg to the coast, in the industrial areas..Read more: Exemplar CEO Jason McCormick on the July riots: 'There was definitely a massive criminal element. It was proper.'Published on BizNews.com, 21 Sept 2021.What you see is not always what you get. On the face of it, MK is one man with many grievances — a man who also happens to be more loved than any other politician in the country (even Helen Zille likes him)..Jacob Gedleyihlekisa Zuma. The smiling assassin. One who beams while doing you harm..Underneath him is not yet a political organisation like other serious players in the election who have structures and congresses and elect their leaders. Like other one-man shows like Gayton Mackenzie's PA, MK's well-resourced executive team around Zuma is catalysing local and regional structures on the hop..MK's visible organisation is coming into being as its election campaign unfolds. It rises up phoenix-like (God forbid), guided at this stage only by the MK manifesto that Zuma revealed in December..MK is going to have a lot of teething pains going forward. A lot. Its best bet is to try and contain and cohere the forces it's unleashing till voting day and sort out the emerging organisational problems after the election..Already, its official spokesperson, the key "face" of the organisation besides Zuma, has been replaced. His claim to fame was serving a jail sentence for his role in the Fees Must Fall student uprising, and he had a hard axe to grind. It rapidly became too hard to be MK's public representative..His interim replacement is Nhlamulo Ndhlela, a smooth and informed operator, who was last in the news when he won, and then lost, a R220 million tender with SARS under Tom Moyane. He is Tom Moyane's nephew..When that serial political opportunist Visvin Reddy over-enthusiastically incited violence in the name of MK and Zuma, he was admonished and forced to apologise. He is number 9 on MK's list..This past weekend, two MK mass rallies in Gqeberha and East London, which Zuma was due to address, were cancelled at the last minute. The Eastern Cape is seen as an important "base" for MK alongside KZN, Gauteng, and Mpumalanga..Zuma admitted that the reason for cancelling was "issues" in MK's Eastern Cape structures. Instead, he attended the funeral in Alice of a longstanding ANC comrade who had recently crossed over to MK..It's not that Zuma and MK don't have powerful existing networks that support them. But they are having to build new political structures under the MK banner to manifest this..The taxi mafia, the construction mafia, the truckers mafia and so on are thick as thieves with MK supporters..They also have a lot of support among, and are strategically targeting, traditional leaders, churches, trade unions, royal families etc etc,.Not to mention the support they are no doubt receiving from the Russians, especially – those masters of electoral and online manipulation..Then there are his friends, the three Gupta brothers. They owe him a favour or two and surely their money is somewhere in the mix..It is not easy to turn the energy of these networks and MK's underground networks into a formal political organisation called MK openly competing above ground in a democratic system. Ask the ANC and the UDF to know what can happen..In one scenario, we can take Zuma at his word and imagine that he formed MK only to rescue the ANC by removing Ramaphosa (and Roman-Dutch law). In this scenario, he succeeds, MK is disbanded, and Zuma's ANC lives until Jesus comes..But it is much more likely that MK is here to stay, and we will see it increasingly take on the form of the political parties it's competing against. It will have its share of battles, but it will, especially up to the elections, bend to Zuma's will, as just happened in the Eastern Cape..As a leader, Zuma is both much loved and much feared. He has a style of the benevolent dictator as opposed to Malema's belligerent dictatorial style. He smiles while doing you harm. Gedleyihlekisa. Which translated into English means "I cannot keep quiet when someone pretends to love me with a deceitful smile.".The MK is well-resourced, and its marketing campaign – through posters, t-shirts, billboards, and especially social media – is very visible. Besides Zuma's many personal appearances, there are local initiatives (by no means confined to KZN) where MK is drawing crowds..MK community meetings often involve "guerrilla" detachments in uniform marching up and down..Zuma has been coy about any Presidential ambitions (he could say he is finishing his second term if successfully nominated or aspire to change the constitution with a two-thirds majority to allow a third term)..He is more likely aiming to be the KZN premier, a goal which should be reached if MK gets 30% or more of the KZN vote. The KZN economy is four times that of Zimbabwe, up there with Gauteng and the Western Cape. Those who live in the province are certainly living in interesting times. .Read also:.🔒 RW Johnson: Amandla – meet Zuma's Russian-funded media business🔒 FT: How world sees SA: 'Wrecking ball' Jacob Zuma upends SA electionBNC#6: Corné Mulder Q&A – Electoral strategies and coalition dynamics

Hartford: Electoral Court’s Zuma ruling fuels uncertainty as MK influence expands

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