In a dramatic twist, former President Jacob Zuma’s relentless campaign has reshaped South Africa’s political landscape, threatening the ruling ANC’s dominance. His new uMkhonto WeSizwe Party (MK Party) has surged in popularity, especially in KwaZulu-Natal. As elections approach, South Africa faces unprecedented political complexity, with potential coalitions and a shift from liberation-era politics to a more competitive democracy. This pivotal moment, while fraught with uncertainty, heralds significant democratic evolution.
Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.
By Justice Malala
Last Thursday, a television news crew made its way to former South African President Jacob Zuma’s homestead, an ugly monstrosity controversially built at a cost of 250 million rand ($13.6 million) of taxpayers’ money, in his rural village of Nkandla. The crew got to interview Zuma after midnight. At around 2 a.m., the crew watched in amazement as a genial Zuma, aged 82, welcomed a delegation of French diplomats into his living room for a meeting. ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
The indefatigable Zuma has run a relentless campaign since announcing his parting of ways with the ruling African National Congress, the party that led the liberation struggle and of which he was leader for 10 years until 2017. He has addressed public meetings, attended numerous court appearances, attacked his adversaries in the ANC and institutions of state, sang and danced energetically at political rallies, and travelled extensively across the country.
It seems to be paying off. Zuma has upended South Africa’s political landscape, eating into the ruling ANC’s support and that of the radical Economic Freedom Fighters and others, and is set to become a key figure in post-election coalition arrangements at the national level and in his populous, Zulu-speaking home region of KwaZulu Natal. Zuma’s new political vehicle, the uMkhonto WeSizwe Party (or MK Party) has overtaken the ANC as the party with the most support in KwaZulu-Natal, polling at 34% on 25 May in a daily tracking poll by the Social Research Foundation. The ANC — which currently runs the province and won 54.2% in 2019 — polled at a catastrophic 28%. At a national level, the MK Party’s support stood at 13% while the ANC was 42%. Long-standing pro-business opposition party the Democratic Alliance polled at 24.7%.
If these projections are proven correct on election day May 29, South African politics will become far more complex.
Six months ago, the ANC seemed headed for a narrow win or an outcome where it would easily form a coalition with a small party. The rise of the MK Party has changed the calculus dramatically. The more the ANC declines below 50%, the more likely it is that it will need to partner with a bigger party — either the Economic Freedom Fighters, which would drive policy in a radical left direction, or the pro-business Democratic Alliance. Or Zuma’s MK Party.
This has caused anxiety in business and capital markets, but it does not matter that much in the greater scheme of things. The 2024 election is the most uncertain in South Africa’s 30-year-old democracy, but it is also the most welcome. It is historic and necessary in the evolution of the country: After 30 years of ANC dominance, the party of liberation is losing its grip on power — and it is doing so peacefully and with an admirable fidelity to the rule of law and democratic practice. In an era of Big Men politics globally, the ANC has consistently followed the path of free and fair elections.
In 2004, the ANC won 70% of all votes cast at national level, and in some rural provinces it won more than 80%. With this election, real competition has arrived. Even if it scrapes through above 50% or manages to form coalitions to govern nationally (as most analysts expect), the party’s dominance is over. Two of the country’s largest provinces by population (Gauteng at 15 million and KZN at 12.5 million people) are set to fall into opposition hands, according to most pollsters. The third largest province, the Western Cape (population 7.5 million), has been in the opposition Democratic Alliance’s hands since 2009. After Wednesday, just under half of the country’s 62 million people will live in an opposition-held province.
South Africa is normalizing. It is moving away from post-liberation politics to the hard and sometimes uncertain work of a normal competitive democracy, of power that changes hands. In the long term, this is good.
But it is not without peril. Zuma is a dangerous man. In July 2021, when he was jailed for contempt of court for refusing to testify about widespread graft during his presidency, his supporters went on a rampage, rioting and looting in a two-week frenzy of violence that left 354 people dead. Last week, private security companies warned of widespread protest action anticipated during and after elections by MKP supporters disappointed that the highest court has barred him from becoming a member of parliament due to his 2021 conviction on contempt of court charges. His party can, however, still run and his face appears on the ballot.
Whoever wins on Wednesday will take over a country ripe for economic growth and success. President Cyril Ramaphosa ousted Zuma in 2018 promising to rid the country of corruption and to renew state institutions hollowed out by Zuma and his cronies. It is the irony of politics that he has begun succeeding, albeit in his slow and cautious style, as his party loses support.
The president has cleaned up the state electricity provider, which has been running for more than 52 days without the weekly blackouts of the past six years. He has strengthened the revenue services, the prosecutorial institutions, and a raft of other key agencies. He has established a strong relationship with private business to fight crime and fix state-owned enterprises. In the past few weeks, the last of Zuma’s supporters in his Cabinet announced their departures. If he wins or forms a coalition, he will have a free hand to govern decisively.
Even if Ramaphosa loses , a new leader would merely need to accelerate his reforms to drive economic growth from its current anemic levels (below 1%). And voters merely need to avoid the likes of the populist and economically illiterate Zuma on May 29.
Despite these anxieties, this is a glorious moment for South Africa. We are all grown now.
Read also:
- Zuma aims to prevent Ramaphosa’s Presidency, not interested in Parliament – Prof Theo Venter
- Jacob Zuma’s MK Party: Provocative rhetoric and few clear policies challenge ANC dominance
- Jacob Zuma’s comeback: A political headache for the ANC
© 2024 Bloomberg L.P.
