Hersov to Mantashe: Fix mining or forfeit SA’s future

Rob Hersov pulls no punches in this open letter to Minerals Minister Gwede Mantashe, framing South Africa's mining collapse as a policy crime rather than a geological misfortune. Gold output down 86%. GDP contribution halved. 300,000 jobs gone. Exploration spending in freefall. And the Fraser Institute now ranks us below military junta-run states as a mining destination. Hersov's core argument cuts deep: the global green energy transition runs on copper, lithium, cobalt and manganese — minerals South Africa holds in abundance — yet ideological hostility and BEE uncertainty have rendered us commercially uninvestable. The opportunity of a generation is slipping away..By Rob Hersov.Dear Gwede,Or as some people kowtow - The Honourable Minister Gwede Mantashe,I write to you today not merely as a critic, as you know my views on the destructive and incompetent ANC, but as a deeply concerned South African witnessing the managed decline of an industry that is not only our national heritage but also our most critical asset for the future.The global landscape is undergoing a profound transformation, one that places mining at the very centre of the world’s economic and environmental salvation. Yet, as the world cries out for the very resources we have in abundance, South Africa is tragically, and intentionally, silencing its own potential.Mining is the “keystone industry” of modern civilisation. Without it, the global economy would collapse. The device on which this open letter is read, the infrastructure that powers our homes, and the medical equipment that saves lives are all born from the earth.More pressingly, the global transition to a green economy is fundamentally impossible without a massive increase in mining output. Electric vehicles, solar panels, and wind turbines are not built from hopes and dreams - they are built from copper, lithium, cobalt, manganese, and a host of other minerals that must be extracted from the ground. And which we have in abundance here in South Africa.As Glen Nwaila, a director at Wits University’s School of Geosciences, has noted, “The challenge at the moment is that we are not developing new mines at the required pace compared to the amount of metals that we need.” This is the global context in which South Africa should be thriving. Instead, we are retreating.The statistics of our ANC-inflicted decline are a source of national shame. Our gold production, once the envy of the world, has plummeted by a staggering 86% from its peak. Where we once produced over 600 tonnes, we now struggle to produce 100. This is not due to geological scarcity, but a catastrophic failure of policy. You are responsible for this failure.The economic devastation is profound. The mining sector’s contribution to our GDP has withered from approximately 20% in the 1980s to a mere 6.2% in 2023. This represents a loss of hundreds of billions of Rands in economic activity and the forfeiture of an estimated 241,500 direct jobs that were never created. The human cost is even more stark, with over 300,000 jobs lost in the sector since the 1980s—a rate of 35 jobs lost every single day for 35 years.The lifeblood of any mining industry is exploration. In South Africa, this has all but ceased. As mining analyst Peter Major has stated, “Our exploration spending has probably been on a 45-degree downward slope continuously since the early 1990s.” This has occurred even during a global commodity super-cycle, a clear indictment of our domestic policies that have rendered investment commercially unviable.The reasons for this are no mystery. They are the direct result of years of policy uncertainty, destructive BEE policies, and a constantly shifting regulatory landscape. The constant threat of nationalisation and the ever-changing goalposts for BEE ownership have created a climate of fear. As Anglo-American CEO Duncan Wanblad lamented, “It’s a generation of mines that have been foregone.”You are responsible for this mess.“We have seen so much bad legislation in South Africa, particularly on mining, because there is never an adult in the room when these policies are formulated,” says Peter Major. “The people never think more than one step ahead, about the immediate reactions and longer-term consequences.”The Fraser Institute’s annual survey of mining companies provides a chilling external verdict. In just one year, South Africa’s policy perception score collapsed by over 50%, dropping us to 70th out of 82 jurisdictions. We are now considered a less attractive mining destination than countries with active military juntas. This is a national embarrassment.We are at a critical juncture. The world is presenting us with an unprecedented opportunity to be a leader in the green energy transition, to supply the minerals that will build a sustainable future, and to create wealth and jobs for our people in the process. Yet we are choosing to sit on the sidelines, crippled by an ideological hostility to an industry that is our only viable path to prosperity.As historian Duncan Money puts it, the choice is stark: “You can reduce the world to the living standards of the 1800s and we can all go and do some subsistence farming, or you increase mining output.”South Africa must choose to increase its output. We must choose a path of policy certainty, of globally competitive legislation, and of a genuine partnership between government and the mining industry. The future of our economy, and our relevance in the 21st-century global order, depends on it.Sincerely,Rob Hersov.Patriotic South African.June 2026P.S. I am not normally this polite to ANC Ministers, but as you and I have a good relationship despite my criticism, I am giving this a go as this might exact a response from you………..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.

Hersov to Mantashe: Fix mining or forfeit SA’s future

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