Historian Ferguson uses Nixon to explain Trump’s “Madman” strategy - and what comes next

Key topics:.Niall Ferguson says Iran faces a counter-revolution Donald Trump uses unpredictability as strategic leverage China and Taiwan loom as the ultimate test of Trump’s strategy.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..BizNews Reporter.In the noise of global headlines, it is often difficult to separate the signal from the static. But every now and then, a conversation clarifies the chaotic geopolitical landscape with such precision that it demands the attention of the BizNews tribe.This week, historian Sir Niall Ferguson sat down with The Free Press’s Coleman Hughes to unpack the tectonic shifts rocking the Middle East. For South African investors watching the Rand and oil prices, Ferguson’s analysis of the collapsing Iranian regime—and Donald Trump’s high-stakes poker game—offers a crucial roadmap for the months ahead.Ferguson, a Senior Fellow at Stanford’s Hoover Institution, is no stranger to bold predictions. But his assessment of the current crisis in Iran goes beyond standard analysis. He believes we are witnessing not merely a protest, but a full-blown “counter-revolution”. That the thousands of protestors on the streets of Tehran aren't just angry about the price of eggs or the collapse of the Rial; they are demanding the fall of the theocracy itself, with some even calling for the return of the Shah.The “Madman” in the Oval OfficePerhaps the most striking takeaway from the interview is Ferguson’s assessment of Donald Trump’s second term. While many in the mainstream media clutch their worry-beads at Trump’s volatility, Ferguson suggests this unpredictability is a calculated superpower.He compares Trump to Richard Nixon’s famous “Madman Theory”—the idea that if your enemy thinks you are crazy enough to do anything, they will fold. The difference? The Soviets knew Nixon was actually a rational calculator. With Trump, America’s adversaries genuinely believe he might just push the red button.Ferguson points to the recent, stunning extraction of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela as supporting proof. By demonstrating a willingness to take extreme risks—risks that would terrify a standard hedge fund manager, let alone a politician—Trump has accrued enormous leverage. The Iranian regime, watching American stealth bombers hit Fordo and seeing a fellow autocrat toppled, understands that Trump’s threats are not empty.Debunking the Meddling MythA superb historian, perhaps the best there is right now, Ferguson also takes aim at a favorite narrative of the ‘anti-imperialist’ Left: an idea that the West is to blame for Iran’s misery because of the 1953 coup against Mossadegh.In classic Ferguson fashion, he dismisses this as “intellectually dishonest”. He reminds us that the so-called golden age of Iranian democracy was itself a product of Western intervention—specifically the Anglo-Soviet invasion of 1941. The lesson? Western meddling isn’t always the villain. From South Korea to World War II, he reminds us, intervention has often been a force for good.For Ferguson, the implication for today is clear: The United States should not be shy about supporting the removal of a regime that the historian describes as “evil” and “murderous”. The fear that US support will delegitimise the protestors is outweighed by the moral and strategic necessity of ending the Islamic Republic’s reign of terror.The China ShadowHowever, for those of us looking at the long game, Ferguson’s eyes are fixed firmly on the East. While Russia struggles in Ukraine and Iran teeters on the brink, China remains the ultimate player.Ferguson warns that Xi Jinping is closely watching Trump’s moves. While the collapse of fellow autocrats in Venezuela and Iran is bad news for Beijing’s “axis of authoritarians,” China’s prize remains Taiwan.Here, Ferguson drops a bombshell prediction. Unlike previous presidents who treated Taiwan as sacred, Trump views it transactionally. Ferguson recalls a telling moment from Trump’s first term when the President pointed to the tip of his Sharpie pen and said, "That is Taiwan," then pointed to the massive historic desk in the Oval Office and said, "That is China"—a stark illustration of how he views their relative importance.He concludes that the risk for 2027 or 2028 isn't necessarily World War III, but rather a "Grand Bargain" in which Trump cuts a deal with Xi—trading Taiwan for economic concessions.Connecting the DotsFor the BizNews community, the message is clear. The geopolitical order is being rewritten in real-time. The collapse of the Iranian theocracy would be a massive boon for global stability and energy markets, potentially cementing a new era of peace between Israel and Saudi Arabia.But we must not be naive. As Ferguson notes, there are no “Hollywood happy endings” in the Middle East. If the regime falls, the resulting power vacuum could be messy. Yet, as the historian rightly argues, inaction also has consequences.In a world of uncertainty, Ferguson’s voice remains a beacon of rational, historically grounded insight. Trump’s high-wire act is working for now, but the real test—China—lies just over the horizon.(Source: Conversations with Coleman / The Free Press - interview on YouTube)

Historian Ferguson uses Nixon to explain Trump’s “Madman” strategy - and what comes next

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