Ian Bremmer on BizNews: France’s far-right reckoning is delayed, not denied

Key topics:French PM Lecornu resigns after 27 days amid parliamentary deadlockMacron faces fragile government, budget compromises, and political gridlockFar-right gains risk fiscal instability and EU tensions if elections repeat deadlock.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Ian Bremmer*.NEW YORK – On October 6, French Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu resigned after just 27 days in office, making him the shortest-serving premier in the history of the Fifth Republic and the fourth to fall in 13 months. His government collapsed before it was even sworn in, unable to survive the toxic arithmetic of a deadlocked National Assembly that has made France virtually ungovernable.The problem traces back to President Emmanuel Macron’s catastrophic decision to call a snap legislative election last year. That gamble, designed to head off the surging far right, instead entrenched a three-way parliamentary deadlock among the left, the center right, and Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. No bloc commands anywhere near the 289 seats needed for a majority. Worse, Macron’s far-right archrival emerged with just enough seats to topple any government by joining forces with the left on confidence votes.The Fifth Republic, established when Charles de Gaulle returned to power in 1958, was designed to concentrate power in the presidency and avoid chronic instability. But the system depends on either a clear presidential majority or a clear opposition that is willing to govern in “cohabitation” with the president. Any government emerging from the deeply splintered National Assembly that emerged after the 2024 election was destined to be fragile..Read more:.RW Johnson: Macron at Bay.The immediate trigger was the 2026 budget. Last year, France’s deficit hit 5.8% of GDP, while public debt climbed to 113%. Lecornu was appointed to do what his predecessors couldn’t: form a government that could bring the deficit down before the year’s end. But this implies politically painful spending cuts, and both the Socialists (who are demanding a rollback of Macron’s pension reform) and the center right (which balks at tax increases) have refused to compromise.In the event, when Lecornu unveiled his cabinet Sunday night, it looked less like the “rupture” he had promised than a reshuffling of the old guard, complete with the return of Bruno Le Maire, the former finance minister who is widely blamed for adding €1 trillion ($1.16 trillion) to France’s debt. With even Lecornu’s center-right partners threatening to walk, he resigned before parliament could vote him out.Then, in an unprecedented move, Macron accepted Lecornu’s resignation but asked him to spend two more days searching for a budget compromise. If Lecornu failed, Macron would “take all his responsibilities” – a statement universally interpreted as a threat to dissolve parliament and hold a fresh election in November. That threat concentrated minds. By Wednesday, Lecornu reported having found “possibilities for compromise,” with all parties except the far right and the hard left opposing dissolution and agreeing on the urgency of passing a budget this year. The price of that compromise would be steep – and still wouldn't be guaranteed. Macron would likely have to accept a suspension of his flagship 2023 pension reform – a humiliating reversal that would increase France’s deficit by billions of euros in 2027 – and a less ambitious deficit target of just under 5% rather than the 4.6% originally proposed. Whoever Macron appoints as new prime minister will lead an extraordinarily fragile government. With no majority and not even a reliable, large minority in the National Assembly, they will have to cobble together majorities for each line of the 2026 budget before mid-December, without relying on emergency constitutional powers. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe has declared that his 29 deputies would never support suspending pension reform. The Socialists will push for higher taxes on the wealthy; the center-right will oppose them and demand spending cuts. The far left and far right will attempt to block progress. Macron could make massive concessions yet still end up with a government that collapses within weeks.If that happens, Macron’s options narrow further. He could dissolve parliament and call a snap election. That would relieve the short-term pressure for Macron to resign, which even some of his former allies, including Philippe, are calling for. But polls suggest that his centrist bloc would be crushed, with the National Rally emerging strengthened but probably short of a majority. Another hung parliament would make a budget agreement all but impossible. Macron could keep appointing new premiers indefinitely – but after losing four in a year and with his approval rating at just 17%, that path would deepen the sense that he is ignoring the will of parliament and the people. Alternatively, he could keep a censured premier as caretaker and roll over the 2025 budget using emergency legislation. That would push the deficit toward 6% and further spook bond markets. French borrowing costs have already spiked to near-Italian levels; the spread over German Bunds hit 0.88 percentage points on Monday, close to its widest since 2012.If Le Pen’s National Rally were to eke out a narrow majority in early elections, France might finally get a 2026 budget – just not a fiscally credible one. While Le Pen favours more social spending, her likely prime minister candidate, Jordan Bardella, favours tax cuts. Neither is interested in the deficit-cutting reforms that markets, rating agencies, and the European Union are demanding. A National Rally government, moreover, would also force an unprecedentedly adversarial cohabitation between Macron and a far-right prime minister. Under the Fifth Republic’s constitution, the president shapes foreign policy, but major initiatives require parliamentary ratification. A hostile National Rally majority could actively undermine not just French fiscal discipline but also EU cohesion and support for Ukraine.The bottom line is that a snap legislative election would not make France more governable. It would just reset the deadlock or hand power to the far right. Only a presidential election can break the logjam in a constitutional system that was not built to handle this kind of fragmentation. That means either 18 more months of paralysis, market jitters, and mounting public frustration that will fuel the populist fire, or a reckoning that brings the far right closer than ever to the Élysée Palace..Read more:.RW Johnson: The denouement of Emmanuel Macron.Even if Macron limps through the next 18 months, the damage is done. Business investment has declined for two consecutive years. Economists estimate the turmoil since Macron dissolved parliament in June 2024 has already cost 0.5 percentage points of GDP. The longer the paralysis drags on, the worse things will get, and the more the far right will be able to present itself as the only force capable of breaking the logjam.The cruel irony is that Macron launched his career in 2017 precisely to save France from the far right. Instead, he has delivered the far right the best shot at power it’s ever had. The only question now is whether France reaches that reckoning in the next few months – or in a year and a half..*Ian Bremmer, Founder and President of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media, is a member of the Executive Committee of the UN High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence. Copyright: Project Syndicate, 2024.www.project-syndicate.org

Ian Bremmer on BizNews: France’s far-right reckoning is delayed, not denied

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