John Matisonn: Steenhuisen reveals real US agenda behind Trump-SA Cabinet talks

Key topics:US aims to expand trade with South Africa, focusing on minerals and car tariffs.Trump administration pressures South Africa to lower car import tariffs.AGOA’s future uncertain; new US deals likely demand reciprocity from South Africa..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.The auditorium doors will open for BNIC#2 on 10 September 2025 in Hermanus. For more information and tickets, click here..By John Matisonn.The Trump administration’s position on South Africa is much more unified and focused on US economic expansion than most media have suggested, judging from John Steenhuisen’s assessment of the high stakes cabinet visit to Washington last week.In a first outline of the substance of the closed door discussions, Agriculture Minister and DA leader John Steenhuisen explained how the visit moved South Africa further in our commercial relations with the US than the antagonistic Oval Office meeting between the presidents would suggest.Trump said “you guys are the largest economy on the continent… and you have minerals we need,” Steenhuisen said in an interview. Then Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, a billionaire and friend of the president, narrowed the discussion to two products. “He was very exercised by strategic minerals and car tariffs,” Steenhuisen explained. The day before the Oval Office meeting, the South African ministers met US Trade Representative USTR) Jamieson Greer, who spelt out the administration’s real business agenda with South Africa: “We want access to South Africa’s economy. Not so that we can compete with South African firms, but so that we can compete with Chinese and European firms in South Africa.”Greer’s position as USTR has no equivalent in South Africa and casts light on how much US administrations have always been focused on trade. The US Trade Representative is a member of the cabinet. The jobs of the USTR and the Commerce Secretary in the US combined amount to Tau’s ministry of trade, industry and competition.Trade and Industry Minister parks Tau’s opening trade offer was seen as a starting point. US officials responded that it was not good enough to enable the US to compete. They want to compete with other car companies, but are hampered by South Africa’s policy of high tariffs on imported cars, with the one exception – if a car firm manufactures and exports cars from South Africa, it gets an equivalent quota for tariff free imports to South Africa. South Africa proposed that American car companies, in particular Tesla, build a car factory in South Africa to earn tariff-free import rights. But nothing in the meetings suggested that Elon Musk is planning to do that.Instead, the US wants the government to offer a better deal on car tariffs than the current one. This is one of the main issues Tau must now consider -- cutting tariffs on car imports from the US. Tau will have to weigh whether this requires him to lower tariffs on all car imports or whether to consider a US-only deal to satisfy Trump.This highlights why Trump always prefers bilateral trade deals. .Read more:.South Africa said to prefer bilateral US trade deal over AGOA.The next most important outcome of the trip is that in Washington, officials take their signal from the president, even when he does not announce it. A president’s invitation to a White House meeting, and a decision to negotiate, signals to lower level officials that they can open doors that have been closed.Before this meeting, South African officials were being held at bay. Before he was declared persona non grata and forced to leave the US, South Africa’s ambassador Ebrahim Rasool had found most doors closed to him. This continued for other South African diplomats from lower official levels until last week, but now those same officials have the signal to meet and negotiate over things like South Africa’s tariffs on US car exports to South Africa. Tesla’s access to the South African market is the brand they most have in mind.When the South Africans asked about the African Growth and Opportunity Act AGOA) at the White House, they were firmly told that AGOA is in the hands of congress. However, Steenhuisen left with the clear impression that AGOA will not survive in its current form, if it survives at all.Even under Democratic presidents, US diplomats in South Africa complained privately that they did not feel South Africa’s ministers were dealing with them in good faith on trade. When they raised issues of reciprocity, as South Africa has negotiated for European trade deals, South African officials said they did not need to, because AGOA was given by US legislation as a one-way benefit. Clearly, under Trump resistance to one-way benefits is fierce. And when AGOA is debated in congress under a Republican majority, it is almost certain some mechanism to demand reciprocity will be an essential component to any new AGOA option.One reason the meetings were so focused on trade deals may be that Trump is now under serious pressure to prove his trade war produces results in new trade deals. His administration initially promised 90 traded deals in 90 days, an outcome that has proved impossible. Nearly two thirds of the way through the 90 days, the US has only reached a single agreement, with the UK, which has been desperate for a trade deal with the US since Brexit. Even that deal is considered more a rough outline than a full deal, since detailed trade deals usually take years, considering agreement must be reached on thousands of products. “The trip achieved three things,” Steenhuisen said. “We’ve started substantive negotiations on a trade deal, we’ll engage on the next phase for AGOA, and South African representatives will find doors open among all the officials we need to access to address remaining issues.”

John Matisonn: Steenhuisen reveals real US agenda behind Trump-SA Cabinet talks

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