John Matisonn: DA leadership stakes just got higher

Key topics:DA shows rising black voter support, boosted by Helen Zille’s mayoral bid.Internal DA disputes and cabinet reshuffles damage party image.Steenhuisen faces scrutiny over ministerial conduct and foot-and-mouth crisis..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.The Democratic Alliance’s most serious risks of John Steenhuisen’s six years as party leader have arisen just as its prospects for an electoral breakthrough have never seemed so good.Recent opinion polls show a potential DA breakthrough among black voters at the same time that the leadership faces an ugly public fight between party leaders and an outbreak of foot and mouth disease that could taint Steenhuisen’s term as agriculture minister. Newly released Social Research Foundation polls, conducted in November 2025, found that Helen Zille’s entry into the Johannesburg mayoral race has captured the imagination of voters outside the DA’s traditional support base. It found surprisingly high numbers of black, township and even ANC voters were pleased that she entered the race..Read more:.Full speech: Helen Zille accepts DA's nomination as Joburg Mayoral candidate.While the SRF stressed that the question, whether voters “support her candidacy in Johannesburg” did not test whether they would vote for her, the results were a significant reflection of voters’ sentiment.A total of 59.6% of South African voters said yes. Of black voters, 51% want her to run, as did 63% of Gauteng voters, as well as a remarkable 50% of ANC voters. After decades in which blacks willing to vote for the DA hovered below 5%, the poll also found black voting support for the DA now standing at 15%.But this week the DA suffered an erosion of support in three by-elections, to the Patriotic Alliance and the Freedom Front plus. This could be a response to negative publicity over an unseemly spat between DA leaders over the recent cabinet reshuffle. The DA’s electoral congress in April will be a chance to show if black members rise to the top levels of leadership, to combat the image of the party as dominated by whites. Basic Education Minister Siviwe Gwarube has thrown her hat in the ring for an unspecified promotion, and deputy finance minister Ashor Sarupen is aiming to replace Zille as federal council chair. Since this is a full-time job, Sarupen has indicated he would stand down from the government if necessary.If Sarupen and Gwarube are both elected to high-profile positions it could go some way to correcting the impression of the party as still led by whites.Steenhuisen has pledged to run to keep his job as party leader, and Cape Town Mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is widely seen as the crown prince, though he has vowed not to challenge his friend Steenhuisen as long as Steenhuisen is in the running.The decisive moment could well come when an internal investigation into Steenhuisen’s role in the firing of George reports. George maintains that he was removed because he challenged Steenhuisen’s use of his credit card and because Steenhuisen wanted to force George to succumb to the canned wildlife hunting lobby. As the campaign progresses, future SRF polls will test whether Zille can turn this openness to her candidacy into votes in Johannesburg. While Zille’s mayoral bid appears to be a positive game-changer, the Steenhuisen-George spat and the foot-and-mouth outbreak damage the party’s reputation for governing well at the national level. The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease among cattle in eight of the nine provinces reflects the decay in government’s capacity to handle the disease confirmed in a report in 2019. Steenhuisen has only been agriculture minister for 18 months, but he will inevitably be held responsible if the outbreak gets out of control on his watch. The end of last year saw the party’s top leaders involved in an unseemly battle over top positions in the government. When George was fired as Environment, Fisheries and Forestry minister he accused Steenhuisen of abusing his party credit card, and George and his ministerial successor Willie Aucamp laid complaints against each other with the public protector. .Read more:.John Matisonn: DA now SA’s most stable large party.The DA investigated the credit card allegation and concluded that all amounts had been reconciled, but claims that Steenhuisen has been unable to manage his own finances have dented his image.The DA is currently conducting an investigation into George’s claims that Steenhuisen was “captured by the ANC and other criminal interests” and improperly interfered in George’s portfolio.

John Matisonn: DA leadership stakes just got higher

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