Mills and Hartley: The ANC’s slide – quicker than a minister dodging a scandal

Key topics:Key foundations withdraw from National Dialogue over flawed processUS trade tensions risk 30% tariffs, threatening SA manufacturing jobsANC faces rapid decline, internal rebellions, and leadership uncertainty.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up for the BizNews channel here..By Greg Mills and Ray Hartley*.President Cyril Ramaphosa’s grip on the ANC has weakened dramatically as his National Dialogue heads for irrelevance verging on complete collapse. This follows the decision by former President Thabo Mbeki and others to withdraw from preparations.The Dialogue was right up the president’s street, the type of forum echoing the negotiations of the 1990s, with the added bonus of coinciding with the 70th anniversary of the Freedom Charter. Nothing like getting the taxpayer rather than the bankrupt ANC to pay for this jamboree, free marketing of a now-worn and empty packet.Cynicism apparently has no bounds. Irony too.Mbeki recently described the Democratic Alliance’s decision not to participate in the National Dialogue as “very strange indeed”.“I have no doubt that the DA acts against its own direct interests when it decides to isolate itself from this sovereign authority when the latter decides to engage in a National Dialogue to determine our country’s future,” Mbeki wrote.But Mbeki is now doubtful about the integrity of the Dialogue, and his foundation has withdrawn from the planning process along with the Steve Biko Foundation, the Chief Albert Luthuli Foundation, the Desmond and Leah Tutu Foundation, the FW de Klerk Foundation, the Oliver and Adelaide Tambo Foundation and the Strategic Dialogue Group.In a joint statement, they said: “The rushed timeline, constrained logistics, and limited interactive design mean that the proposed Convention no longer offers a meaningful platform for engagement.”The collapse of the National Dialogue takes place as Ramaphosa’s government fumbled trade talks with the US, failing to proactively engage or address key issues at the heart of the dispute. The result has been that the country faces 30% tariffs, which are likely to hammer high-end jobs in manufacturing. This will undermine a key constituency for Ramaphosa, the trade unions.While Ramaphosa has been on the phone with US President Donald Trump, his party has been doing its own thing with the megaphone firmly in the hands of ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula. Instead of seeking ways of engaging with the US, he has opened both barrels at Trump, saying, “Even if it means that we suffer through sanctions as leaders of the ANC, let it be. We will never back imperialists to subvert our democracy, to subvert our sovereignty … We will never forsake our country which we fought for.”“Political mischief”And he accused the DA of “political mischief” because he claims the party campaigned against BEE on trips to the US.“You can’t, for national interest, say undo BEE to appease the US because among others this is what the US wants of us, that we must do away with certain policies which for us in terms of transformation policy are not going to assist us,” he said..Read more:.Trump threatens extra 10% tariffs on BRICS nations for anti-American policies, escalating global trade tensions.It’s jumbled language, but this suggests that Mbalula actually believes that all political parties have a duty to articulate the ANC’s policies and not their own when talking to foreigners.This kind of Soviet politics might go down well at gala dinners with fellow liberation movements, election riggers and authoritarian emissaries, such as the one recently held in Johannesburg, but it is not appropriate in a democracy which is based on ideas being freely and openly contested by rival parties. On such a basis does accountability and competitiveness rest, not on slavish adherence to party diktat.More concerning for Mbalula should be the fact that the ANC’s centre now has the constituency of a good pannacotta.After a brief moment in the sun following the formation of the Government of National Unity, the party has entered a period of rapid decline. This is likely to be accelerated by the forthcoming local government election, where the chickens of serious urban mismanagement will come home to roost.Instead of extending the GNU to the provinces and metros, Ramaphosa faced a populist rebellion from the ANC in Gauteng, which sought alliances with the EFF and others, leading to an acceleration of weak and compromised governance, including a major water crisis and failing infrastructure in Johannesburg.In a further blow to Ramaphosa’s authority, the SACP, until now a supporter of his faction, has announced it will contest these elections on its own, and it is likely to do the same in the 2029 general election.Could find themselves firedMbalula has hinted that members of the SACP could find themselves fired from the cabinet if they don’t abandon the party.The ANC’s constitution says: “Any member who supports a political organisation or party other than an organisation in alliance with the ANC in a manner contrary to the aims, objectives and policy of the ANC shall be liable for disciplinary action.”Among the ministers who will have to choose which party they belong to are Higher Education Minister Buti Manamela, Mineral and Petroleum Resources Minister Gwede Mantashe and Science, Technology and Innovation Minister Blade Nzimande.Ramaphosa’s term as ANC president will end at the party’s December 2027 elective conference, and there is no clarity on who will take over. Deputy President Paul Mashatile is in pole position, but he is unlikely to save the ANC from decline. Lacking the profile of previous ANC presidents and embroiled in an endless stream of scandals around dodgy dealings, he may even accelerate its fall.Last week, Mashatile declared to Parliament that he enjoyed access to two luxury properties worth R65 million. News24 reported that Mashatile’s son-in-law, Nceba Nonkwelo, bought one of the properties, a Constantia mansion worth R28 million in 2023.He declared the two properties as “residential family home” to Parliament’s Register of Members’ Interests.Appears more isolatedWith party officials defying his authority, global relations with key trading partners entering turmoil, and key constituencies deserting the ANC, Ramaphosa has been relying on the National Dialogue to repair the damage ahead of elections. That carpet has been pulled from under his feet, and he appears more isolated and weakened than ever.The pace of the ANC’s descent is no longer entirely down to internal factors within its control. With the failure to respond adequately to the Trump administration’s demands, it is not impossible to imagine a darker future still for the ANC. Sanctions against individuals, including the freezing of foreign bank accounts, would, for instance, effectively end BEE as we know it, at least that involving listed companies.If this were to happen, the National Dialogue fiasco may yet be looked upon as a feature of a relatively golden era of ANC rule. .*Dr Greg Mills is a Fellow at the University of Navarra in Spain and a founder of the Platform for African Democrats (https://www.pad.africa/). From 2005, he was for 20 years the director for the Johannesburg-based Brenthurst Foundation. His recent books include "Rich State, Poor State," "The Art of War and Peace." and the forthcoming "The Essence of Success: Insights in Leadership and Strategy from Sport, Business, War and Politics," all published by Penguin Random House. *Ray Hartley is an independent commentator. He is the former Research Director of the Brenthurst Foundation and previously edited the Sunday Times, The Times, Rand Daily Mail and BusinessLIVE. He is the author of "Ragged Glory: The Rainbow Nation in Black and White," "The Big Fix," and "Ramaphosa: The Man Who Would be King" among other works..This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission

Mills and Hartley: The ANC’s slide – quicker than a minister dodging a scandal

Related Stories

Ramaphosa's "finish and klaar" moment — and why the DA holds a nuclear option he can't afford to ignore

Black X dumps 2GB of ANC membership data online — Ramaphosa, Mashatile and Mantashe among 2.3 million records exposed

GNU's fault lines crack open: ANC statement signals the honeymoon is firmly, officially over

Solly Moeng - Cyril’s game, Steenhuisen’s scandal and the failing ANC “fat bellies”...