Patrice Motsepe poll results ‘like a rocket ship’. A glimpse of SA’s new politics

Key topics:Polls show Patrice Motsepe surging as a potential ANC leaderAnalysts say Motsepe could revive ANC support to near 50%New campaign site fuels speculation about Motsepe presidency run.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By John Matisonn.Billionaire businessman Patrice Motsepe is polling “like a rocket ship” for president in both national and ANC-only opinion polls, according to Dr Frans Cronje, editor of The Common Sense. Cronje, whose track record of accurate polling is good, believes Motsepe will run for the presidency despite his recent denials, if a political path to victory is possible.If these polling results are upheld when Cronje has finished his team’s analysis of them, and publishes them, which is likely to be very soon, this will be another signal of radical change to South African politics in the current election cycle.Motsepe recently denied he would run for president despite the appearance of a new website, pm27, actively promoting him as a candidate. .Read more:.John Matisonn: It’s true - Patrice Motsepe has entered Presidential, with brother-in-law CR’s backing.In an interview with working colleagues on youtube, Cronje said his early look at the polling indicated Motsepe is so strong that in a race for the ANC presidency he would win, and in a general election he would also do extremely well.Cronje, who has previously said that his polls indicated the ANC falling into the low 30s, said this polling on Motsepe was so strong that the ANC could feasibly claw its way back to 50%.When news of the Motsepe presidency website was published, the ANC condemned it as “divisive” and called on those involved to “desist immediately.” A spokesperson for the website accepted the decision. But as of this weekend, www.pm.org.za is still operating, citing the following mission: “The pm27 campaign champions Patrice Motsepe as the most credible, unifying and visionary leader to guide the ANC and South Africa into a new era of integrity, growth and unity… The campaign calls on all South Africans to rally behind a leader who embodies unity, progress and ethical government…”The site promises a 12 month programme of action in four phases from town halls and listening sessions in the launch and mobilisation phase, into “public engagement and advocacy”, followed by momentum building and consolidation, to the fourth and final phase of the “elective congress and election readiness.” Motsepe’s denial that he is running must be seen in the context of the ANC tradition, in which candidates generally deny interest and the party officially bans campaigning until shortly before the congress. Candidates in the past denied they were up for the job until that point, when they “changed their minds.”Motsepe would be an unusual choice for ANC leader considering that he has not been an active ANC member, and a substantial change in direction for the party. He is regarded as a businessman without the left-wing ideological roots of the ANC or its tripartite alliance members in the South African Communist Party or the labour federation Cosatu.ANC members widely dismissed his candidacy for those reasons. But the leaders in ANC headquarters at Luthuli House follow opinion polls carefully and are acutely aware that current election losses are costing tens of thousands of ANC members their livelihoods in elected jobs as well as the bureaucracy.If polls show Motsepe emerging as the only candidate who can save their jobs, most obstacles to him in the party are likely to give way. And if he becomes the ANC president it seems likely that the ideological bent of the ANC would shift substantially if slowly.Within the ANC he will battle several current frontrunners with the country’s deputy president, Paul Mashatile, first in line. It is assumed that one reason the website was launched early was to grab the “pm27” brand before Mashatile, who has the same initials, thinks of it. As current number 2, Mashatile starts with an advantage, but continuing media coverage of his extravagant lifestyle despite a lifetime in government jobs has dogged him. Many of his friends and family have scored multimillion rand government contracts.None of the other possible candidates, including secretary general Fikile Mbalula, has caught the public’s enthusiasm given the stature of previous ANC leaders. Motsepe’s accession to the political campaign would be a third enormous, recent political game-changer. Former DA leader and successful Cape Town mayor Helen Zille’s decision to run for Johannesburg mayor has injected new excitement into a city plagued by corruption, incompetence and the constant instability of collapsing council coalitions.Next month will also see the election of an all-new DA national leadership, likely headed by well-regarded Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis, 39, marking the coming to power of an entirely new, post-apartheid generation of politicians. Once a new DA leader is chosen in four weeks’ time, attention will shift to both the municipal elections and the race for ANC president, which is to be decided next year at the ANC’s elective conference. Zille’s Johannesburg campaign will be contested by former DA Johannesburg mayor Herman Mashaba, now leader of Action South Africa, making for a tough fight. The ANC candidate has not yet been chosen. .Read more:.TCS: What South Africa might look like under a Motsepe-led ANC.These contests will all take place against the background of the ongoing public inquiries into the possible capture of the South African Police Services’ leadership by organised crime and political interference. While it is too soon to know if the justice system will be any better at prosecuting and convicting these culprits than in the past, the revealed evidence continues to be so shocking that it is the third political game-changer of a new era in South Africa.

Patrice Motsepe poll results ‘like a rocket ship’. A glimpse of SA’s new politics

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