Rising tide: The Islamification of Africa - Rob Hersov

Key topics:

• Muslim population in Africa is rapidly growing, led by Nigeria

• Terrorism deaths rise sharply in Sahel, linked to Islamist groups

• Islamic expansion often coincides with shrinking personal freedoms

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By Rob Hersov*  

Africa stands at a demographic crossroads that will reshape the continent's future and reverberate across global security landscapes. The rapid expansion of Islam across sub-Saharan Africa represents one of the most significant religious and political transformations of our time, carrying profound implications for regional stability, human rights, and international security.

Demographic Transformation: The Numbers Tell the Story

The statistics paint a clear picture of Islamic expansion across Africa. As of 2024, Nigeria leads the continent with 105 million Muslims, followed by Egypt with 90.4 million and Algeria with 39.4 million [1]. This represents nearly half of Africa's total population, with Muslims constituting approximately 50 percent of the continent's inhabitants.

The trajectory is even more striking when examining growth projections. According to Pew Research Centre data, the Muslim population in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to surge by nearly 60 percent between 2010 and 2030, rising from 242.5 million to 385.9 million [2]. This dramatic increase will see Muslims comprise 31.0 percent of sub-Saharan Africa's population by 2030, up from 29.6 percent in 2010. Perhaps most significantly, Nigeria is projected to become a Muslim-majority nation by 2030, with Muslims expected to constitute 51.5 percent of its population compared to 47.9 percent in 2010.

West Africa has already crossed the threshold, becoming the only sub-region in sub-Saharan Africa with a Muslim majority at 52.2 percent in 2010, projected to reach 55.6 percent by 2030 [2]. This demographic shift is driven primarily by significantly higher fertility rates among Muslim populations, with Muslim women in Nigeria averaging between six and seven children compared to five for non-Muslims.

Security Crisis: The Dark Side of Expansion

The correlation between Islamic demographic growth and escalating security threats across Africa cannot be ignored. The continent has become what the United Nations Security Council termed "the epicentre of global terrorism" in 2025 [3]. The statistics are sobering - fatalities linked to militant Islamist violence jumped 20 percent in 2023, claiming more than 23,000 lives—a new record that represents a near doubling of deaths since 2021 [4].

The Sahel region, spanning from Senegal to Eritrea, now accounts for over half of global terrorism deaths. In 2023 alone, the Sahel recorded 11,643 fatalities, marking a record high for any African theatre since the peak of Boko Haram violence in 2015 [4]. Somalia experienced an equally devastating 22 percent increase in fatalities, reaching 7,643 deaths—a tripling since 2020.

Major extremist groups have exploited weak governance and demographic changes to expand their influence. Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), formed in 2017 from merged al-Qaeda affiliates, is associated with 81 percent of militant Islamist violence in the Sahel [4]. Al-Shabaab dominates Somalia's security landscape, while the Islamic State in West African Province (formerly Boko Haram) continues its reign of terror across the Lake Chad Basin.

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Burkina Faso exemplifies this crisis, with nearly 2,000 people killed in 258 terrorist incidents in 2023, accounting for nearly a quarter of all global terrorist deaths [5]. The country's transformation from a relatively stable democracy to a terrorism hotspot illustrates how rapidly security can deteriorate in regions experiencing Islamic demographic shifts.

Freedom Under Siege: The Human Rights Dimension

The expansion of Islamic influence has coincided with declining personal freedoms across much of Africa. According to the Cato Institute's Human Freedom Index, the Muslim world averages just 5.52 on a 10-point freedom scale, dramatically lower than the global average of 6.98 [6]. More than 1.8 billion of the world's 1.9 billion Muslims live in nations where personal freedom falls below the world average.

Among African Muslim-majority countries, only Burkina Faso (7.39) and Senegal (6.97) score near or above the world average for personal freedom [6]. The data reveals a troubling pattern: countries with secular legal systems tend to maintain higher freedom scores, while "religiously repressive states" like Sudan, Mauritania, and others implementing Islamic law show significantly lower freedom levels.

The implications extend beyond abstract freedom indices to real-world consequences for women's rights, religious minorities, and civil society. In regions where Islamic law gains influence, restrictions on freedom of expression, assembly, and religious practice often follow, creating environments where extremist ideologies can flourish unchecked.

Conclusion: A Continental Challenge

Africa's Islamification represents a multifaceted challenge requiring urgent international attention. While religious diversity itself is not problematic, the correlation between rapid Islamic demographic growth, declining governance, and escalating violence demands serious consideration. The statistics demonstrate that regions experiencing the fastest Islamic expansion often coincide with deteriorating security conditions and diminishing personal freedoms.

The international community must recognize that addressing Africa's security crisis requires understanding these demographic realities. Without acknowledging the role of religious and cultural factors in driving instability, efforts to promote peace, security, and human rights across the continent will continue to fall short of their objectives.

References

[1] Statista. "Muslim population in Africa as of 2024, by country." https://www.statista.com/statistics/1368589/muslim-population-in-africa-by-country/

[2] Pew Research Centre. "Region: Sub-Saharan Africa." January 27, 2011. https://www.pewresearch.org/religion/2011/01/27/future-of-the-global-muslim-population-regional-sub-saharan-africa/

[3] UN News. "Security Council debates growing terrorism threat in Africa." January 21, 2025. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/01/1159246

[4] Africa Centre for Strategic Studies. "Deaths Linked to Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Continue to Spiral." January 29, 2024. https://africacenter.org/spotlight/mig2024-deaths-militant-islamist-violence-africa-rise/

[5] Institute for Economics and Peace. "2024 Global Terrorism Index." February 17, 2024. https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/GTI-2024-web-290224.pdf

[6] Cato Institute. "Freedom in the Muslim World." August 25, 2020. 

*Rob Hersov, South African businessman and patriot