When the migrants go: Katzenellenbogen on the economic shock SA isn't ready for

June 30th has come and gone. The anti-illegal immigration deadline set by groups like March and March triggered mass fear, chaotic departure scenes, and a R600-million government security operation. Now comes the harder question: what does SA's economy look like without its migrants? Analyst Jonathan Katzenellenbogen, writing for The Daily Friend, counts the costs — rising labour rates, shuttered spaza shops, fewer builders and waiters, and a weakened business footprint across Africa. The political scramble is already underway, with the ANC and DA rushing to catch up with ActionSA, the PA and MK. But no party has an answer for the economic hole now opening up..By Jonathan Katzenellenbogen*.South Africa’s demographics and economy might be about to change in a big way. Foreign migrants, both legal and illegal, are fleeing the country and will leave a hole in the economy.Yesterday, 30 June, was the deadline that anti-illegal immigration groups set for undocumented foreigners to leave the country. With the threats and intimidation around the deadline, the date will also mark how people in what are in effect vigilante groups can have an outsize influence in a country where the state is weak.There was violence yesterday associated with some protest marchers, but nothing on a massive scale. The politicians could still claim the national R600-million security operation as a success. But the ANC’s failure to control immigration has resulted in massive mob intimidation of foreigners, which is certainly no success.What happens when the migrants leave SA massively and suddenly, and not the result of a legal process, sets a terrible precedent for the future of the rule of law in this country.As the mass migration into SA over more than thirty years has been the result of incompetence, bribery and corruption, this has become an issue people feel forced to take up on their own. It is also the result of mass popular frustration and resentment at ANC service delivery.And as the migrants are forced to leave, the false justification of violence against immigrants and people thought to be immigrants becomes stronger. The enforcement vacuum also paves the way to a sloppy justification for intimidation, violence, and looting.In a video, a man who is on an anti-immigrant march goes into a shop and says to the owner, “Listen to me, you must leave by 30 June. Don’t listen to the government, you must listen to me.”Many foreigners have left already, or are scrambling to leave, and some are in hiding. And it’s likely that many will no longer want to cross the border again for work. June 30th was a reminder to prospective employers not to take on illegal foreigners, and makes many scared about hiring even those with the correct stamps.We don’t have any reliable estimation of the scale of the economic shock we are about to experience. Back in 2022, Statistics SA said there were an estimated 3.2 million foreign migrants in the country. Some say it’s more, some less, but we certainly don’t know how many people are illegally in the country.And we don’t know the number of migrants that have left, are in queues waiting to leave, or will leave in the coming weeks.Number leaving is sizeableAccording to videos of queues outside consulates and at emergency gathering locations for processing and transport out of the country, the number leaving is sizeable. Many will be making their own way rather than relying on buses arranged by their governments.Clearly, many Zimbabweans and Malawians are very scared and desperate to leave. Why else would they endure terrible conditions at the various processing stations?Over the weekend, thousands of Zimbabweans and Malawians faced long processing delays in their attempts to depart from Durban, Pietermaritzburg, and Cape Town. At some locations, there were inadequate toilet facilities. People had to endure cold and rain, and relied on food handed out by charities.March and March and other anti-immigrant groups have created a climate of extreme fear. In effect, that means they are implementing what the anti-immigration parties want. They have stepped into the vacuum created by the government’s failing to exercise control.As the migrants flee, parties have been rushing to take up the issue. uMkhonto weSizwe, ActionSA and Patriotic Alliance have made dealing with illegal immigration a central part of their offering.But now the ANC and the DA are trying to catch up with these parties. On Monday evening, President Cyril Ramaphosa met with anti-immigrant leaders to appeal for peaceful marches. And the DA’s mayoral candidate met with March and March’s Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma. The DA leadership criticised her for this. But the message from these meetings was clear: I will hear you out. It was, of course, combined with a condemnation of intimidation.And when the migrants leave, what will happen to our economy?There will be an economic shock. The sudden withdrawal of large groups of workers and the closure of many businesses always add up to a serious disruption. Economies adjust to such events, but it can take time. Certain prices rise, and disruption can be severe. It will not be a case of Zimbabweans leaving and locals rapidly stepping into their shoes.With the SA economy barely growing and consumer spending under pressure, it might be the case that many businesses will decide not to replace the workers who have left.High pricesIt could be more difficult to hire a builder, a gardener, or a waiter. Labour rates might rise, but that would mean fewer workers will be taken on. Many small spaza shops which provide immense convenience to township residents will be gone. When the shops of the Bangladeshis and Pakistanis are looted or set on fire, people in downtown Johannesburg and the townships might face higher prices due to less competition. And the Malawian tailors who can do quick alterations will be gone.What happens to the South African employees of businesses set up by Zimbabweans when they head for home?Groundup, a news website, spoke to Charity Sithole, who rents out five rooms to immigrants in Mayville, outside Durban, for R700 each, earning her R3,500 a month. “If the foreign nationals went home, I wouldn’t be happy at all because they are paying rent. I am not working, so I am relying on the money,” she said.Those from the region wanting to do business in SA will be very wary about coming to SA to do their purchasing and deals. And SA business chains in neighbouring countries could well face hostility. Our business position in Africa could take a big hit.And what happens to the migrants when they return home? Nigeria has promised resettlement help to its citizens that have fled SA. But those from Zimbabwe, Mozambique, and Malawi could face dire circumstances..Read more:.Vigilantes, police and politicians: The unholy alliance turning SA's anti-immigrant violence into a growth industry.Migrants from these countries must support their families at home on their South African earnings. The result of a massive return of earners from SA could be widespread hunger and frustration, and increased pressure for political change.Lot could changeThe option to flee south for many Zimbabweans has been a factor that has helped reduce the chances of mass uprisings in the country. A lot could change in Zimbabwe with the mass exodus from SA.It need not have ended in this disastrous way. If only we had grown faster, there would have been a lot more jobs. If only the ANC had implemented an orderly immigration policy, and if only we had fewer failed states in the region, we would be in a far better position..*Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management..This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox every morning on weekdays. Register here. 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When the migrants go: Katzenellenbogen on the economic shock SA isn't ready for

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