Will SA really think before voting in 2014 election? Unlikely says Colin Donian

Arriving home in time to vote in the 2014 election was a key part of my travel plans for the annual Berkshire Hathaway pilgrimage. As we head to the local polling station this morning, I'm thankful it was. Missing a national election is inconceivable for me. Active citizenry begins with a decision on how to vote. For democracy to work properly, we need to take it seriously. And select those who lead us on the basic stuff: Maintaining law and order; Being unafraid to take hard, sometimes unpopular decisions; Giving every citizen an equal start in life; Efficiently allocating public resources. Emotion shouldn't come into it. And certainly not race. But as Colin Donian writes, history suggests that when it comes to politics, the human condition tends more towards emotional identification than logic. Not just in South Africa. – AH

By Colin Donian*

Today, 7 May 2014, is an opportunity for every South African to reflect on the past and whether it lived up to their expectations, and also give expression to their dreams.  In secret, in a small space of our beloved country we shall each place a cross or two alongside a person, a party and a policy set.  But will we?  What is that that drives us to select one little box from amongst the dozens on offer?

The IEC lists 152 nationally registered parties and 48 provincial ones.  Twenty nine parties will contest the national elections. South Africans cannot say they do not have choices.  Perhaps the converse is true.  Such a kaleidoscope of faces, colours and names would make Americans hallucinate.

But, there is no real choice it seems.  In 2009 four parties received 95% of all votes cast.  This year it is likely to be the same.  So, most voters will choose from four parties; the ANC, DA, EFF and ANOther.  But who will vote for which party?

While the information is by no means scientific, it is instructive to follow the conversations on talk radio, social media and letters in newspapers.  Ninety-odd percent of white voters will vote for two or three 'white' parties and 90% of black folk will vote for 'black' parties.  An exception is the so-called coloured vote that slants towards the DA.  At the next level each race group splits up between leading parties (ANC and DA) and fringe alternatives.

Class and gender seem to play a marginal role in driving voter decision-making, at the core.  Both the ANC and DA will receive votes from every economic class and both genders pretty equally.

I conclude from such anecdotal interpretations that party image, its place in history and perceived interests, are the prime drivers for voting decisions.  Party heads, policies, evidence-based successes and failures are matters for debate and grumbling, but do not drive voting behaviour.

Is this materially different to how voters behave in other countries?  It may not be.  Let's look at the 2008 USA presidential elections (USA-ElectionsResults-2008)).  The patterns seem consistent across many American elections, but some dynamics may be accentuated in 2008, Mr Obama's first term.

More women vote Democratic than Republican, by about 6 percentage points.  Forty three percent of whites voted for Mr Obama, but 95% of African-Americans did, as did 67% of Latinos.  Within the latter groups, more women voted for Mr Obama than did men.  A greater proportion of older white folk voted Republican than younger ones.  It was only amongst the 18 – 29 year-old white segment that Mr Obama received more votes than Mr McCain.

Voters with lower incomes tend to vote Democratic rather than Republican.  However, irrespective of income levels, black and Latino voters chose Mr Obama by a large margin.  For black voters earning less than US$50k, 86% were for Obama, as were 75% of those earning over US$50k.  The same is true for race and education, although a disproportionate number of white non-college graduates struck an x for McCain.

I am sure there are other examples across the globe that question the above themes, but the American experience does not feel too different to ours.  Good and not-so-good ANC Presidents may come and go, and the ANC may talk about the collective when it suits them, but the bulk of voters will for the foreseeable future make an x opposite the black, green and yellow.

In the distant future, when the mists of time obscure history, there may be a new jigsaw puzzle.

* Colin Donian is a freelance researcher, writer, change agent, dog-lover and mountain biker. He is founder of the research and consulting enterprise InsightWorx (1995) that specialises in: (i) business development and idea generation, (ii) engineering solutions where there is market failure, and (iii) making markets both smart and fair.