Alec Hogg: SONA – SA acting its age (with retorts from a Judge, community members)

By Alec Hogg

Everything in life runs to a rhythm. Even democracies. And history teaches us young democracies are turbulent, messy places. It takes time for Parliamentary rules of engagement to become ingrained. Until then, expect the unexpected.

So last night while the nation watched Parliamentarians engaged in fisticuffs and grandstanding, it was a reminder South Africa is simply acting its age. In August, the world watched Turkish MPs getting stuck into each other. A month earlier, roundhouses by Ukrainian Parliamentarians grabbed the headlines. The year before it was the Taiwanese. Today global news channels will show footage of well-fed fighters in red overalls.

On Sunday, President Jacob Zuma suggested to assembled editors he was well prepared for misbehaviour. The EFF obliged. As did the DA, following them out just like the chess playing ANC leader had anticipated. The smart money saw the fracas for what it was, the Rand gaining 10c from a pre-SONA low of R11.82 to the Dollar. Little wonder Zuma was unable to resist his trademark chuckle. Like Paul Kruger showed the Jameson Raiders 120 years ago, jingoism is no match for patient preparation.

For the first time since I've been receiving your daily newsletter, I don't agree with something you say.

First of all, it's not factually correct. The DA did not "follow" the EFF out of Parliament. The EFF were forced out and the DA left when neither the Speaker nor the "Chairperson" (awful word, however politically-correct) was prepared to answer a perfectly valid question as to whether the police had been involved in getting the EFF thrown out.

Secondly, the DA left on what its members thought (and I agree) was a matter of principle –  the separation of powers between the Executive and the Legislature. If, as everybody assumes, the police were involved, that was wrong and the Speaker, as representing Parliament and not her party, should have answered the question without obfuscation. Whether that justified walking out, I am not sure, but that was clearly what prompted the DA and, incidentally, Bantu Holomisa's UDM to "follow" (no pejorative meaning intended).

I hold no brief for the DA or indeed any other South African political party. I abhor the EFF and particularly its leader and I admire some of the history of the ANC, but certainly not its present leader. I don't pretend to have no politics, although I endeavour to keep out of active political activity, for professional reasons.

I would describe myself as an independent thinker and voter, but I think it's unfair for influential journalists to depict the DA, which after all is the Official Opposition, as a kind of hanger-on of the EFF.

May we expect any further comment on yesterday's debacle to be limited to a critical examination of SONA?

Thank you for a fairly balanced assessment of yesterday`s Parliamentary debacle of gigantic proportions!

It is commendable for you to remind journalists in our media that the Parliamentary fisticuffs are a world phenomenon.

One got the impression that what transpired yesterday was a uniquely South African occurrence due to shoddy reporting when in fact countries like Turkey, Ukraine and Taiwan also experienced similar occurrences.

I'm sorry but no, that's nonsense. Passing off what happened last night as an excuse for a young democracy is rot. All that happened there was Zuma was allowed a free pass to splutter utter garbage for his actual SONA with content as meaningless as the man himself. Whilst SONA 2105 will rightly be remembered for armed intervention in the house and the demise of the reputation of all Parliament as a result (in the minds of the LCD) the ramifications of what Zuma did say are being overlooked. Our' young' democracy, which has been 60 years in the making, I am afraid is fast turning into a young farce and this is the early stages of exactly what has transpired in every nation north of us. We've seen this story before and those that cannot learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

If I could believe your last line I'd have some cause for hope. But I believe the accurate way to reword it is "….  jingoism is no match for incompetent arrogance matched with a disconnect from economic reality."

My prediction is that as of now, we are going to see an increase in 'capital guarding'. The risk taking here in SA, what's left of it, will evaporate and the only investments coming in now will have a strong government backed guarantee. As a %age of GDP  government's role is going to increase much faster than precedented because a) there will be less private capital, and b) they will have to or there won't be any 'investment' at all. If I am right we are going to see private industry will shrinking at a rate that will make our eyes water. And that will be the end of that. There is plenty strife coming our way – how it plays out is going to be interesting to see. Increasing civil unrest, more service delivery protests, many more protracted strikes, vilification of capitalism, regulation increases and SARS increasing desperation to 'find the money', and finally one small spark ala a Marikana type incident leading to melt downs in certain areas, ala the late 1980's. That, or a continued acceleration in those below the poverty line.

My forlorn last hope is that the Cape breaks away and forms its own sovereign state by buying it's way out. But that's a (very) long shot.

I think last night was serious beyond measure.

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