By Alec Hogg
As Zimbabwe goes to the polls, economics tells us there can be only one winner. Primarily because in the last 20 years, ZANU-PF’s mismanagement of the economy has been epic.
In the decade to 2008 as land grab policies chased away investment and hyper-inflation took hold, the size of Zim’s economy halved. In the decade since, dollarisation and a modicum of foreign aid (mostly from China) helped, but official figures show the economy is still 10% smaller than 20 years ago.
There are now 17 million people in Zimbabwe. That’s five million, or 41% more than the 12 million Zimbabweans of 1998. Put differently, if the economy were a giant pizza pie, for the eight slices available to each citizen in 1998, today there are only five.
Credible estimates put Zimbabwe’s youth unemployment rate at 90%. No political party in history has been able to win a free election lugging anything like that baggage. Despite belatedly ridding itself of the destroyer-in-chief, ZANU-PF is unlikely to become the exception.
